Yeah my friend is working with evaluing/implementing AI tools for a big organization and their finding is that the staff -feel- more productive using AI tools but if you measure the time spent it’s usually the same as doing it manually (for now)
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Thing is I won't get 2x faster at hand-coding during my life time (at least not for things I haven't built before) but the vibe will get better and better every day.
Option 2 will win eventually.