IRAN #OSINT SPECIAL REPORT — 28 Feb 2026 Tehran Focus | Israel + US Actions Confidence key: High / Medium / Low Executive Snapshot → Israel announced a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Explosions reported in Tehran and additional urban centres. Confidence: High → Operation described as coordinated with the United States. Planning reportedly ongoing for months. Confidence: High → US leadership publicly framed the operation as significant military action. Confidence: High → Civilian panic dynamics reported inside Iran (fuel queues, closures, movement away from affected zones). Confidence: Medium–High Situation Report — Tehran → Multiple explosion reports in the capital following Israeli announcement. Smoke observed over parts of the city. Confidence: High → Civil disruptions reported: school closures, increased traffic movement, fuel demand spikes. Confidence: Medium–High → Elevated likelihood of regime internal security surge (checkpoints, arrests, information control) based on prior protest repression patterns. Confidence: Medium Assessment: Tehran enters a high-volatility window (24–72h). Civil stability stress combined with external kinetic activity increases unpredictability. Actions — Israel → Declared pre-emptive action against Iranian targets. → Civil defence posture raised domestically (alerts, preparedness measures). → Senior Israeli officials confirm operational coordination with the US. Assessment: This marks overt escalation beyond grey-zone engagement patterns. Strategic signalling suggests deterrence-through-force doctrine. Actions — United States → US participation reported alongside Israeli strikes. → Public messaging frames the operation as deliberate and coordinated. → Political narrative positioning indicates intent beyond symbolic retaliation. Assessment: US posture signals alignment rather than distance. Regional actors will interpret this as joint responsibility. Immediate Risk Outlook (Next 24–72 Hours) → Iranian retaliation vectors: missile/drone launches toward Israeli territory. Confidence: Medium–High → Potential targeting of US bases in neighbouring states. Confidence: Medium–High → Tehran internal crackdown surge likely (internet throttling, curfews, rapid detentions). Confidence: Medium → Economic shock indicators: liquidity pressure, fuel supply stress, panic buying. Confidence: Medium Watchlist Indicators → Confirmed strike targets in/around Tehran (military, air defence, IRGC-linked infrastructure). → Official emergency decrees or nationwide security announcements. → Verified attacks on US regional assets. → Maritime escalation signals in Gulf corridors. → Confirmed communications blackouts. Strategic Assessment → Escalation ladder crossed. → Coordination between Israel and US removes ambiguity about alignment. → Tehran stability risk elevated significantly. → Regional spillover probability materially increased. This is no longer proxy shadow play. It is direct state-on-state kinetic signalling. End of report.