Knots is right on track to cause a minority chain split. Weeks before mandatory signalling BIP110 runners claim still to be determined to keep running BIP110. If August 7th comes and less than 50% of miners signal BIP110, you get a chain split. I see how mandatory signalling can make a soft fork a success even if only a minority cares but with a minority less than lets say 20% this doesn't work. Nobody knows how big that minority group needs to be but I'm confident claiming that 0.3% is not enough and I would be shocked if 10% were enough.

I don't think it's about network share. Those are empty numbers that can be manipulated. It's about economically relevant nodes that originate high volumes of transactions (e.g. exchanges, swap services, etc...). If none of those entites are signaling BIP-110, the miners can't be bothered to care. After user activation, BIP-110 will immediately drop in hash rate and transactions will take hours or days to confirm at a safe depth. It will die so fast, and so many of these amatuer outrage-addicts are going to be even more confused and angry than they already are.

Miner signalling is at 0.3%. I don't care about "node signalling".

For some reason I either completely misinterpreted your note or replied to the wrong one. Can't for the life ofe think why I was replying about nodes.