Oh we are definitely in an elongated cycle. We are just in the plateau zone! The best and most honest way to measure the success of a bull run is to measure from cycle top to cycle top. 2021 we were at 69K. Over 4 years later to be at 109K, no matter how you slice it is not great. ~58% over a 4 year time horizon. If Bitcoin does not reach ~210K by years end, 2025 will be an absolute dud. The thesis of holding for one cycle (4 years) to assist with financial freedom is dead 100%. The new thesis we should be telling noobs is #hodl for 2.5 cycles (10 years) to feel a decent change to your personal finances. Bitcoin is still king, he’s just getting older 👴!

Replies (1)

The diminishing returns thesis and power law concept are strong I agree there No-one knows the future though! A central bank loosening with inflation still not under control is very bullish for asset prices And not often seen historically