Because it is a protocol, no one is even going to really know what Nostr even is when that breakout app occurs. What we’ve already seen for Bitchat and Nymchat users. Most have never even heard of Nostr beforehand.
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Bitchat might be the exception here, I think it is possible that has reached a significant amount of people, as a brand at least.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I think unlike atprotocol and Bluesky, I think nostr is probably bigger as a brand of protocol than the nostr clients.