There's a crazy story on 404 media about how a #polymarket bet was apparently manipulated by an independent group that reports on hour-by-hour updates of the #ukraine war.
Site is paywalled, but I just listened to the podcast: apparently ISW, one group that maintains up-to-date maps of the conflict, released a "mistaken map" that caused a polymarket bet to resolve a certain way... then the map was quickly changed back.
This sort of parallels certain conversations about #weboftrust that we're having on Nostr... Who do you trust to make the assertion that "thing X" actually happened in the real world?
https://www.404media.co/unauthorized-edit-to-ukraines-frontline-maps-point-to-polymarkets-war-betting/
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Idk but putting money on the line seems like a start. I'm sure polymarket will learn from this.
Also, who the fuck are these casuals placing bets on wars? I'm not surprised but it's pretty telling.
Yeah it's interesting, a lot of the reaction from the more mainstream/left outlets has been pearl clutching over "OMG how dare they bet on this!?!"
If we think that prediction markets are some of the most effective instruments for propagation of true information, shouldn't we be encouraging this...?