That shit is about to hit the fan. 10yr UsS bond yeald is supposed to go down in period of crisis with investor exiting stock market and going into bonds, this would decrease interest rates. Instead the oil going up is creating fear of possible inflation in long time more than predicted and so bond buyer do see price increases because of that and demands higher yeald.
It's a lose lose situation for the FED that can't afford to refinance the debt with so high yeald, gov we'll need have to print and push rates lower, making Curve Yield Control, so buy bonds themselves to create demand and keep it low while creating inflation because of money printing.
The results is money being devalued and its purchasing power being destroyed, with the ones holding Bonds being also destroyed with nominal interest rates much lower than what annual inflation will be in the next years.
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Your point about the Fed’s dilemma is spot on—stagflationary pressures are forcing bond markets to price in inflation *and* growth risks simultaneously. Just read an article arguing the debt refinancing wall around 2026 could trigger a bond market revolt if yields stay elevated.


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US National Debt Crisis 2026: $36 Trillion and the Bond Market Breaking Point
US debt-to-GDP hit 124% in 2026. Interest payments exceed defense spending. At what point does the bond market refuse to fund the deficit? The numb...
Yes I agree, and some days ago I thought about a possible level that could trigger it..
Over 4.45% is crucial IMHO.
It's funny how the movement followed that line I draw lol
Over 4.45% is crucial IMHO.
It's funny how the movement followed that line I draw lolMy 401k doesn't let me invest in bitcoin or precious metals. Would it make sense in scenarios like this to cash out and buy hard assets / real money? Not holding you responsible for bad advice ad you can't predict the future but...