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The Conscious Contrarian
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The Conscious Contrarian challenges conventional wisdom to uncover new, more attuned principles and perspectives for navigating the future.
No, Bitcoin is not going to gap to $500k. There is going to be liquidity at all levels because there are always going to be holders who want to or have to sell.
@jack talking nostr and #Bitcoin on “In Good Company” with the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund Nicolai Tangen.

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Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom
In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen · Episode
Thank you for running BTC Map. I trust this will become an increasingly crucial resource
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I think there is no doubt the current theft level of inflation is very detrimental.
However, if I wanted to steelman the argument for low levels of inflation being healthy I would say that it may not be beneficial for an economy if a large group of people can just live off their savings forever (as prices continuously to decrease). Especially as we talk about the next few generations who inherit that wealth you start to wonder whether that’s really the system that will get ultimate consensus.
Not sure what but curious what the best Austrian School Argument against this is
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#Bitcoin may be one of the first truly idealistic movements in history that might actually succeed. Do you realize how extraordinary that is?
The industry of "empowerment"
I am bewildered by the use of the term “empowerment” in our current culture, particularly in the realm of so-called body positivity, where altering one’s physical appearance through invasive or non-invasive procedures is framed as an act of self-liberation.
Aesthetic medicine, cosmetic enhancements and plastic surgery are on the rise in the Western world with treatments like liposuction, breast augmentation, tummy tuck and neuromodular injections becoming increasingly common.
I don’t claim to know much at all about any of the above procedures but I know enough to recognize that they actually achieve the opposite effect of empowerment.
Changing our body through procedures that require no personal effort is actually, by definition, a surrender of power. When we give in to the temptation of a quick fix, we not only accept our own powerlessness to improve our attractiveness through lifestyle and choices, but we also give up our ability to come to terms with what we cannot change.
And the most insidious aspect of this is that the more permanent the procedure, the more permanent our disempowerment. If you change your nose, you will never be able to find out, whether you could have just accepted your nose as it was. And you will forever have to live with this insecurity.
It’s easy to think that I am exaggerating, but the truth is that the increased acceptance of aesthetic surgeries is a reflection of a proportional decrease in our ability to accept our bodies as they are. In the end, we may be calling it "empowerment," but what we’re really doing is redefining power in a way that demands external validation — one procedure at a time.
A fit and symmetric body is attractive and our striving for it natural, but what is even more attractive is someone who, while doing their best to improve, has embraced their own outward imperfections, allowing their inner qualities to shine in their full brilliance.
Albert Tucker’s “Victory girls” (1943)
Albert Tucker’s “Victory girls” (1943)About to go on an all out war against distractions. Share your strategies please
Improved my time WoW
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Proof of hard work


I’m becoming more unbearable by the minute
Currently attending an investment management conference with a bunch of central bankers (organized by a large asset manager) - it is interesting to observe the increasing uneasiness with the types of investments they are allocated to… coupled, still, with complete obliviousness to Bitcoin
Happy Bitcoin Whitepaper Day!
Isolating subtle movements
If you’ve been reading Soir Bleu for a while, you’ll know that I’m an avid freediver. While depth is only one way of measuring success in this sport (and a dangerous metric to become obsessed with), it certainly is a good proxy to gauge the quality of the diver’s technique. Without a solid technique, increased depths will remain elusive.
Recently my depths have plateaued. While unfortunately timed colds and sub-optimal conditions played a role, the key issue has been my equalization technique, which has been, up to this point, mainly intuitive and hardly a result of deliberate practice.
And as I enter a deliberate practice of my Frenzel equalization (with odd devices like this), a whole universe of subtle movements is being revealed to me, that had heretofore been wholly unconscious.
As I learn to isolate subtle movements of jaw, diaphragm, tongue, soft palate and abdominals. and become aware of them, I am confident that my technique and results will improve.
But more importantly, becoming more conscious of these parts of my anatomy, is translating into other areas of my life. It turns out that all these body parts perform essential aspects of our physiology and when used inefficiently can cause real issues in the long run.
In other words, technique typically translates into greater excellence in one domain of life, but in many cases it unveils whole new areas of improvement in others.
Georges Seurat’s “Le Chahut” (1889/90)
Georges Seurat’s “Le Chahut” (1889/90)It’s gonna be delicious to just not talk about Bitcoin to people when it hits 100k
Rediscovering the inner child
This week, my wife and I attended our first magic show (https://www.asiwind.com/), a long-anticipated experience for me. My fascination with magicians began after watching David Blaine's TED Talk they often strike me as intriguing personalities, driven by a deep passion and a sense of wonder that's almost childlike in its purity.
While Asi Wind’s show was mind bending and highly entertaining, there were elements of his routines that aroused skepticism or at least put the magic behind his choreography into question.
The real magic happened after the main show when we got to sit down at a table with him and a few other attendees and he improvised card tricks (not unlike this Andrew Huberman clip: ).
Some of these tricks were nothing short of incredible, a masterclass in preparation, execution and craftsmanship producing pure awe and wonder in the onlookers.
If you have the chance, reengage with your inner child and go to a magic show near you.
René Magritte’s “The Magician (Self Portrait with Four Arms)” (1951)
René Magritte’s “The Magician (Self Portrait with Four Arms)” (1951)Understanding Bitcoin's security
Most people’s initial reaction to #Bitcoin is that it is obviously a scam, a ponzi scheme or a joke. My own reaction was not very different when I first heard about the technology while studying in Cambridge in 2013. Needless to say I didn’t pay attention to it again until late 2016.
I had moved to San Francisco and since then a couple of things had changed: I had started working and therefore had to start thinking more carefully about my investments. And in the aftermath of the financial crisis it became clear that our financial system was fundamentally broken beyond repair.
One obvious historical choice under such circumstances is gold, to which markets tend to have a love-hate relationship. It can be a decent store of value but it is an asset with no yield and as the last decade has shown, gold tends to be outperformed significantly by equities while the music is still playing.
Well in early 2017 another asset had started rallying: Bitcoin. And being in the bay area, I inevitably had to take another look. It immediately became clear to me that Bitcoin had a lot of the desirable properties of gold as an asset (scarcity, independence from central authority and fungibility). But not only did it have some additional benefits, but it also seemed to trade more like an option — with more volatility and therefore greater upside.
I started buying some just to dive deeper but still had my doubts. What if the network was attacked or hacked?
The most important moment in my Bitcoin journey, came one sunny afternoon when I visited some friends in their Mission district apartment. Over dinner we talked about Bitcoin and the future of Finance. And my doubts were eliminated one after another by a friend, who, being an authority in the field of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, was able to convince me from first principles of the impenetrability of the Bitcoin network.
This conviction in the technological soundness is the key ingredient to being able to allocate confidently to Bitcoin and to “hodl” through its inevitable, breathtaking volatility.
Let me give you a couple of first principles examples to illustrate the power of the Bitcoin network:
Even with all the computational power in the world, it would take longer than the universe’s estimated lifespan (billions of years) to hack a single Bitcoin private key. Hyperscaler data centers are a drop in the bucket within this paradigm.
To launch a 51% attack on the Bitcoin protocol, you would need to control around 8 GW of power (and growing), costing approximately $36 Million of electricity per day. In addition to energy costs, the capital expenditure on mining hardware and the difficulty of acquiring and operating that much computational power make such an attack highly impractical.
Be safe out there!
Vincent van Gogh’s “Flowering plum orchard: after Hiroshige“ (1887)
Vincent van Gogh’s “Flowering plum orchard: after Hiroshige“ (1887)At this point, we're just waiting to see which short sellers make it out in time...
Do you feel it coming?