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Rod
Rodney@primal.net
npub1700u...mt2e
Founder of the first prediction market with Nostr integrated. www.PolyBets.fun
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Seeking feedback from nostr community: what are some creative ways to integrate Nostr further into PolyBets?
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Build protocols that bypass the security apparatus
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
When others are riding the wave it’s time to stop surfing.
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Abundance is required to appreciate minimalism
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Defenseless technology is defensible by outcome- Build defenseless, see where your competitor sees the advantage you have. Build around that advantage with defensibility in version 2. Competition loves exposing their cards when you paint the illusion of weak defensibility. Paint the illusion of weakness in parts of your stack where the competition will attempt to replicate. Do everything you can to make them expose their hand.
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Ecosystem capture is, by nature, the first thing that the devil has created from scratch.
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
If you’re relaxed right now remember what the frontier labs want right now; the destruction of FOSS
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
The biggest challenge for Nostr and other protocols will be adaptability in a system designed to curb its freeing use case for the masses. They’re coming after FOSS already for a reason.
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Decentralized protocols will rise in the next 2-4 years. You better get to building one right now. The level of greed we’re seeing stateside is obscene right now. The people will choose their systems wisely after this, and they will choose protocols that favor general consensus, not the centralized apparatus.
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
Good always triumphs over evil
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rodbmy 2 weeks ago
I built a prediction market exchange that uses a single merged order book for binary (Yes/No) markets instead of maintaining separate books for each side. We're also the first to fully embrace Nostr in a prediction market. The idea comes from Hyperliquid’s HIP-4, but applied to prediction markets. In a binary market, buying Yes at price p is economically equivalent to selling No at price (1 − p). Most prediction markets still fragment liquidity by keeping these orders separate. Our matching engine treats them as the same liquidity source. That gives us a few interesting properties: 1. Buying Yes automatically matches resting No liquidity (and vice versa). 2. Tighter spreads without market makers quoting both sides. 3. Split, merge, and negate operations let positions be transformed without closing and reopening trades. 4. Contracts are fully collateralized and settle to 0 or 1 using external auction/event data. The implementation ended up being much harder than expected because every operation has to preserve collateral invariants while allowing positions to be transformed between equivalent representations. Another challenge is settlement. Rather than relying solely on manual resolution, we’re experimenting with verifiable external data sources and community verification via Nostr. The project currently focuses on markets that don’t exist elsewhere: Formula One race outcomes, vehicle auctions, watch auctions, art auctions, etc., because those have objectively verifiable results and relatively little existing liquidity. I’d especially appreciate feedback on: -the merged matching logic -collateral/accounting model -oracle design -edge cases I may have missed Happy to answer any technical edge cases or questions. -Rod image
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rodbmy 3 months ago
Markets dictate outcomes
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rodbmy 3 months ago
Nostr powers PolyBets. PolyBets promotes the protocol.
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rodbmy 3 months ago
Decentralization will be the future of prediction market software, if not at the core of it.
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rodbmy 4 months ago
My only motivation in life is to pay for people’s medical expenses if they are unable to do so, for as long as they allow me to understand their journey as they lived it.
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rodbmy 4 months ago
I’ve never been this excited for a project
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rodbmy 4 months ago
What we’re doing at PolyBets.fun is going to be monumental for the decentralizing effort
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rodbmy 6 months ago
@jack please tweet about BitChat, the Iranian people need to see it right now. Internet is down nation wide. Thank you on behalf of all of my people.