58 days to reach a $1M #Bitcoin price or @balajis loses his bet. Bitcoin price has appreciated about 17% from the $26k price when he made the bet. $1M is a 3,189% increase in $BTC price, or 6.2% compounded daily for 58 days. Seems doable.

Real Yield on 1 year U.S. Treasuries (yield minus CPI): *Almost* a positive real yield. Note that this is based on the official CPI data which is manipulated (lower) by the BLS through periodic adjustments to how CPI is calculated. Using the current official CPI measurement, rate hikes appear to have nearly caught up to inflation, with a near 0% real yield. However, using the original 1980 CPI methodology, real yields are still significantly negative at -8%.

Pure Signal. #Bitcoin  hash rate continues to smash through all time highs despite the $BTC price being down 57% from all time highs. I'm not saying this has anything to do with Russia mining, but I'm saying this has everything to do with Russia mining.

Updated: $BTC on public #Bitcoin  miner balance sheets as a percentage of market cap, and Microstrategy:

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) calculated using the 1980 methodology by Shadowstats: Using the 1980 method, CPI is still around 13% YoY compared to the 5% reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For background, the method used to calculate CPI has changed several times since 1980 in order to show a lower CPI number.

Median Sales Price of Homes in Major Metro Areas: 1. San Francisco, CA: $923,500 2. Los Angeles, CA: $816,667 3. San Diego, CA: $773,333 4. Seattle, WA: $612,667 5. Boston, MA: $560,458 6. Denver, CO: $550,000 7. New York, NY: $516,667 8. Riverside, CA: $508,333 9. Washington, DC: $458,967 10. Phoenix, AZ: $420,083 11. Miami, FL: $415,000 12. Dallas, TX: $362,768 13. Tampa, FL: $350,458 14. Atlanta, GA: $343,150 15. Baltimore, MD: $326,600 16. Minneapolis, MN: $324,867 17. Houston, TX: $305,633 18. Philadelphia, PA: $304,100 19. Chicago, IL: $272,667 20. Detroit, MI: $215,000 (data from Zillow) San Francisco prices seem high compared to the value that a person gets for living there.

“The selfish reason to tweet bullish shit is that it attracts other bullish people into your network” -I think the Dalai Lama

What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates? During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis. Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE. Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt. Ray Dalio followers: Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE. I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio. Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.

What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates? During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis. Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE. Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt. Ray Dalio followers: Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE. I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio. Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.

What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates? During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis. Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE. Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt. Ray Dalio followers: Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE. I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio. Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.

What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates? During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis. Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE. Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt. Ray Dalio followers: Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE. I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio. Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.

What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates? During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis. Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE. Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt. Ray Dalio followers: Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE. I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio. Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.

#Bitcoin

I had a dream I could buy my way to heaven; when I awoke I spent that on a Bitcoin

US Public Debt as a Percentage of GDP (Debt/GDP ratio): Currently ~120% The red labels are rounds of announced Quantitative easing (QE) to show the effect that QE has on the US debt position. QE was only introduced in 2008, and is the tool that has allowed unchecked money (and debt) creation since the great financial crisis.

Barrels of crude oil in United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): As of the most recent data, the SPR is at 372 million barrels, the lowest level since November 1983. The SPR has been drawn for 17 months in a row, contributing to a lower reported CPI inflation number.

“Predators feed on weakness. Oppressors benefit from the sanctimonious peer pressure of pacifists who condemn physical aggression; oppressors *want* their population to be passive. Passive populations are physically docile, and their belief systems are easy to exploit”

Once you learn Bitcoin you unlearn. Bitcoin has become so rooted to the core of my operating system I don’t see how I can live in a Jurisdiction that is hostile to it. A ban would be like the government telling me the sky is now green. I could not live a lie. If the United States was to ban Bitcoin like they did gold in 1933, where is everyone moving?

Read, write, 🔁.

Proof of stake explained simply by Lyn Alden: “[staking ETH] would be like a political system where you get a vote for every hundred dollars you have, and then also get paid a dollar by the government for casting each vote. Mary the high school science teacher with $20,000 in net worth gets 200 votes, and earns $200 from the government for voting. Jeff Bezos, with $200 billion in net worth, gets 2 billion votes, and earns $2 billion from the government for voting. He’s a more valuable citizen than Mary, by a factor of a million, and also gets paid more by the government for already being wealthy.” Proof of stake is just a recreation of abstract power that already exists today. The rich get richer. #[0]