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Lyn Alden
lyn@primal.net
npub1a2cw...w83a
Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Partner at Ego Death Capital. Finance/Engineering blended background.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Spent three hours today round-trip driving into Philadelphia and listened to music the whole way. Figured out a few of my mid-act 3 plot points. View quoted note →
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Gm. I had trouble sleeping last night, so instead I reached 100k words in my hobby sci fi manuscript. Full length will be ballpark 120k. I’m going to take a break from adding new words to it, and will spend some time editing the first 100k. The reason I was able to write most of the first draft quickly (two months, as a side project) is because I had a bunch of plot outlines and character details bouncing around in my head for a long time. But the last part is less fleshed out, even though I know the outline of the ending. So I need to let it sit for a bit and collect some more thoughts on it, rather than rush to get it on paper. Sometimes a random shower thought driving while listening to music helps you think of that detail that completes a scene or ties scenes together.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Tonight's background writing music:
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LynAlden 1 year ago
I read a book called How to Become the Dark Lord and Die Trying. There is a woman from Earth named Davi who is the chosen one and she is stuck in a time loop in a fantasy world. Every time she dies, she wakes up in a forest pond and an old wizard finds her and says the prophecy is for her to save the world. She has lived 237 of these lifetimes, totaling over 1,000 years, and can never win. The dark lord and his horde always wins, no matter what she tries. She has understandably become quite cynical. Her personality is like Deadpool now; she takes nothing seriously, constantly jokes about things, and breaks the fourth wall. So as she is getting tortured in the dungeon of the dark lord on life #237 after yet another multi-year attempt that failed, she decides she is fed up with this. Instead of trying to defeat the dark lord and save the kingdom, she will instead join the bad side and become the dark lord. So after finally finding a way to kill herself and end the torture, she wakes up in the forest pond again. When the wizard comes to find her, she kills him and then heads into the forest to start her journey to work up the bad guys ladder. Kind of like Groundhog Day she has so much accumulated experience (fighting, magic, combat tactics, knowledge of what events will happen when) and she can iterate when she fails, so she sets off on this new journey to become Dark Lord Davi. So the story follows her as she builds a bigger and bigger army (she insists on calling it a horde, since dark lords have hordes) and adventures across the world accumulating power. Funny stuff.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
I like paranoid crypto anarchists. Good folks doing good work. Big fan.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
This chart is kind of shocking actually. A society completely flipped the mechanism for how it deals with people who are problematic for themselves and others. image
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LynAlden 1 year ago
It's been 24 years now, and I've heard a lot of rock songs and watched their videos, but I'm not sure that any of them hit me harder than Kryptonite by 3 Doors Down in 2000 when I was 12 years old. It doesn't even touch most of my favorite sub-tropes, but it touches on the broadest tropes of heroism and valor, and very well done. I was reminded of it due to coming across a cover from several years ago: If I have to pick an all-time favorite band, I'd say Linkin Park. If I have to pick an all-time favorite song and video, back when music videos were more of a thing, I might have to say Kryptonite. Something about it hits really deep. It's about like, undesired heroism. The most raw form of heroism. It's probably the key song that got me into rock when I was 12 and it's still great.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Masculinity is under attack lately. But I like masculinity actually. I know, shocker. The fact that so few U.S. presidential or vice presidential candidates have had beards in modern history is funny to me. I think men usually look better with facial hair, and the older they get the more likely that is. 20-somthing or 30-something strong jaw dudes often look great without facial hair. But when men are 50 or 60 or whatever, that salt-and-pepper beard is so rad and almost always beats the no-beard weak-chin look. I actually think it's weird that neither Biden nor Trump have a beard. JD Vance looks like shit without a beard. Growing a beard is the best move he ever made, imo. And yet the media is like, "A vice president candidate with a beard?" Masculinity can be rough around the edges, but that's what we need sometimes. It's usually balanced by other societal aspects. In some societies it gets extreme and needs to be pushed back on. My husband has a temper, but his temper is part of his power and why he impacts the world to the extent that he does. So when I interact with his temper, it's not about eliminating it, but rather it's about appreciating it but making sure it's directed in the right direction. Masculinity and femininity are good. They don't need to be forced. Nature is diverse but society tries to categorize nature into narrower categories. Feminine men and masculine women are cool too. But that doesn't change the fact that masculine men and feminine women are also cool. I grew up kickboxing and submission grappling. I'm a tomboy. I'm a feminist in terms of promoting equal gender rights. But at the end of the day, I appreciate masculine men. I was never attracted to men who were weaker than me in any capacity, but rather was always attracted to men with gravitas. The easiest approach to life is to 1) respect biology as it is but then 2) also appreciate the divergences that inherently exist within it. Trying to equalize nature is to fight against it. And yet trying to eliminate the diversify of nature is also to fight against it. Nature is fascinating, and I do my best to appreciate it.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
GM. I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it. One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges. image A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume. Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis. Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then. The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop. As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me. image
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LynAlden 1 year ago
I talked to an author a lot this weekend, and an amusing thing she said was that romance authors tend to be kind of mean, and people who write horror or violent thrillers tend to be nice. If there's truth to that, I guess the theme would be that people like to write about what they're not. It's a way to explore or express something that they don't otherwise explore or express in their real life.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
The fact that more public companies haven’t run the MicroStrategy playbook yet is kind of wild actually.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
The Jackal was a movie from 1997 that followed the villain (Bruce Willis) as much as the hero (Richard Gere). While the movie had some flaws, especially Gere’s fake accent, I do really like that concept of following a villain as much as a hero. It can work well in a lot of contexts. Has to be the right type of villain though. Complex and interesting, or entertaining. Arcane did that too, which is part of why I liked it.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
There are some forms of age censorship or ratings that, when you examine them, are kind of backwards. An example is the Yugioh dub. When Yugioh was dubbed into English and played on western cartoon networks, they didn’t want to show as much death as in the original Japanese version, even though they were for the same age group. Just different cultural standards. So for the dub they created the concept of the Shadow Realm, and so instead of getting killed by a death trap, someone will instead have their soul sent to an eternity of darkness. Hell, basically. This was considered more suitable for children as a concept: eternal darkness and unhappiness rather than physical death. A lot of Brandon Sanderson books are kind of PG-13. There is a lot of action and death, but usually not a lot of blood or gore, curse words are in fantasy language and thus mostly don’t count. But like, some characters get magically tortured in agony for centuries. Just not in a bloody way. My novel draft is basically a rated R book. Violence, blood, curses from characters that would curse, etc. But ironically far scarier things happen in Sanderson novels than mine! Nobody gets a century of agony in mine. Just good old fashion normal temporary agony. But because it’s more explicit, that makes it equivalent to R.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Western animation is ethically weak lately. This is a post that analyzes one of the most heartbreaking moments in children’s television history, and one that has stuck with me almost two decades later. But the broader theme is that I find it interesting partially because these types of instances measure what a society considers its maturity level to be. It’s like a sensor gage on a given generation. It’s about the death of Ace in the finale of Justice League Unlimited, which is a bigger deal than it sounds like. A child died in the final episode of a 14-year kids' series, which is unheard of. It ended one of the biggest animated epics ever, and was the biggest gut punch I ever had as a kid watching a show vs what kids watch now. And it’s about how it relates to modern animation. But as a preamble, I’ll first highlight the social importance of the Marvel Cinematic Universe which most readers will recognize in more recent terms. Its main story line from Iron Man in 2008 until Avengers Endgame in 2019 was an epic run, in terms of social awareness and revenue. There are movies in the universe after that, and there are more planned out to at least 2027, but that core 11-year period was the key story arc from beginning to end focusing on its original hero and its major villain. And it wasn’t easy to copy: Warner Bros tried to do it for the DC superheroes but couldn’t build that same scope due to their shitty bureaucracy and entering it secondarily. The MCU was known for cool action, but also its frequent use of humor. It was exceptionally well-played even as it was criticized sometimes. But many older Millennials and younger GenX’ers know that DC had a prior strong run: The DC Animated Universe, or DCAU. Marvel had good animated content back then, but it was DC that won market share in that era. That was the golden age of DC comics animated shows. And for animation, it was *super* serious. It started with Batman the Animated Series in 1992, and ended with Justice League Unlimited in 2006, 14 years later. It included the Batman series, the Superman series, the Batman Beyond series, Justice League, and Justice League Unlimited. It was a shared universe where continuity between shows mattered, and it was all under the same executive production of Bruce Timm. So, it’s sometimes called the Timmverse. If you ask me who my favorite Batman is, I’ll say Kevin Conroy, the guy who voiced Batman in that universe. My default base version of Batman is the Bruce Timm and Kevin Conroy version. Absolutely legendary in terms of quality and quantity. Everything else relative to that is a smaller adaption from my perspective. It was generation-defining. It’s a generation-defining set of stories. In my mid-thirties, this series still affects my aesthetics of storytelling and fiction. When I’m seventy I’ll still remember this series. For many kids at the time, this series of shows was absolutely defining. The core of western animation at the time. It was super serious, and explored all sorts of moral themes. And notably, unlike Avatar (2005-2008) and other shows that came at similar times and later, the DCAU was a series of kids’ shows that featured almost all adults. We, as kids at the time, watched adults solve adult problems in this universe, because realistically adults solve adult problems. Not a fun-group of kids on an adventure. I liked kid-based Avatar the Last Airbender and similar kid franchises like Teen Titans, Legend of Korra, and the more recent She-Ra, but kids and teens solving world-ending issues inherently brings unbelievability. Even as a kid, I was like, “nah it’s unrealistic that people my age would solve this shit” and wanted to see adults like Batman and Hawk Girl Shayera solve adult problems. And that’s what the DCAU did for 14 years from 1992 to 2006. A show featuring mostly adults, but for teens. But to bring this post to a point, I’ll just describe the ending of this 14-year shared universe. Because it’s what someone like Bruce Timm does when he runs all of it. Batman Beyond, which was set in the future with a super-old Bruce Wayne and his young protégé was a well-received show from 1999 to 2001 but never had a solid climax. They instead put their focus into Justice League and Justice League Unlimited instead, which was also amazing and ran from 2001 to 2006. So, when it came time to end Justice League Unlimited, and their overall universe, how did they do it? The penultimate episode of Justice League Unlimited involved fighting their final external villain as would be expected. Darkseid acquired Brainiac technology, and became a god-tier threat for the climax. Superman finally dropped all of his social safeguards, admitting that he always holds back because the world feels like cardboard for him and he wants to be safe around it, but that he has to unleash it all now, and decided to absolutely fucking rekt him despite all external consequences it might cause. Even then, he also needed Lex Luthor to help take this threat out. It was a big external situation. But because this 14-year universe was well-written, they didn’t end on just that action stuff. After that climax, they resolved it on character depth. They started their story with Batman in 1992, and they never got an actual Batman Beyond finale, and so they decided to end their 2006 Justice League series with a Batman Beyond true finale set deep in the future to finish the Batman arc as the core of the multi-series. That’s the benefit of having an executive producer that oversees all of this. Continuity and conclusion. In that finale episode, which closes both Justice League and Batman Beyond, Bruce Wayne’s 30-ish protégé Terry McGinness is having an existential crisis while Bruce Wayne is like 90 or 100+ years old and dying, and Terry talks to Amanda Waller, who was historically a mostly well-meaning villain but is now very old. And she is like, “if you want to know who Bruce Wayne is and who your legacy is, know this story.” And she tells the story that ends Justice League, back when Bruce’s Batman was still active. It serves as the ending for both Justice League and Batman Beyond. There was a young psychic girl named Ace, raised by Amanda Waller’s division. She could manipulate peoples’ minds to an absurd degree, and was a major threat in an episode several seasons ago that viewers were familiar with that Batman dealt with in the middle of the Justice League show. She was a young super-villain that didn’t want to be. The Joker gained control of her, and used her to do a major attack, which Batman had to deal with as the rest of the Justice League dealt with her weaker colleagues. And he dealt with her via kindness to appeal to Ace rather than hurting her as a child. She wasn’t malevolent; she was just manipulated by the Joker. And it worked. Amazing dialogue writing. Years later, there was the end-scene of Justice League, as recounted by Amanda Waller. Ace returned to Gotham. As a young teen girl now, she was dying. And as she died, due to her sheer power, the world around her became chaotic. Her powers were exceptional; she was almost omnipotent in like a 5-mile radius. Multiple superheroes tried to reach her, but couldn’t. Amanda Waller noted that she would have a fatal aneurysm in hours or days, and as she went through this process, it kept getting worse. When she died, she would likely take out the entire city of Gotham due to her own fear and chaos. Amanda had a device that could target Ace’s brain and kill her, but nobody could get close enough to activate it due to Ace’s crazy powers. Batman offered to do it. Amanda Waller was like, “nobody else can get close, and to be clear this will kill her,” and Batman was like, “I know. She met me before. She might let me get close. I’ll do it.” So, they sent Batman in. Nobody else could get close to Ace, but he alone could just walk through her defenses. As he reached her, she was like, “They’re afraid of me, aren’t they?” And he was likes, “Yes, they are.” She was like, “They trained me in a lab, robbed me of my childhood. And now I’m dying, aren’t I?” And he was like, “Yes, you are going to die. I’m sorry.” She was like, “I read your mind as you came to me. You never meant to use Amanda’s device to kill me. That’s why I let you get close.” And he was like, “No, of course not, Ace.” And he threw it away. And she cried and said she was afraid of dying, and asked if he would stay with her as she did. And he said of course he would. So Batman just sat on the swings next to this child and comforted her and was there for her for the rest of the day, until she died of her brain aneurysm. And because he calmed her down and made her peaceful, none of the devastating effects of her death happened. She didn’t die in a lethal explosion to the city as Amanda Waller feared; she died in a peaceful removal of her environmental effects thanks to Batman. And Batman carried her body out, sadly. image After 14 years of action; that’s how the entire DCAU shared universe decided to end things. With Batman’s character in terms of how he deals with a dying child. Kindness over action. A sadness from multiple parties that can't be fixed, but can be met with kindness. Few western sub-18 shows today would touch something like that, let alone make it their moral resolution for a 14-year arc. This is my Batman.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Does anyone have recommendations on an ideal way to buy bitcoin in Dubai? I have a friend there asking for recommendations.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
The hardest part of my random crappy sci-fi novel hobby project, is going to be the first half of the third act. The first two acts were very well outlined ahead of time. This story idea has been bouncing around in my head for a long time, and so when it became time to write it, most of it flowed easily. And the climax of the third act has also been pretty well figured out for just as long. It's that late-middle part that's still kind of a black box. The first half of the third act. It's not that I have nothing planned there, but rather it's like I have three potential paths to choose from, and various combinations between those paths. Going to have to put a lot of thought into that section to tie the whole piece together.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
The Tao Te Ching was libertarian like 2,500 years before libertarianism became a thing. Chapter 75: Stephen Mitchell translation: When taxes are too high, people go hungry. When the government is too intrusive, people lose their spirit. Act for the people's benefit. Trust them; leave them alone.