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Lyn Alden
lyn@primal.net
npub1a2cw...w83a
Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Partner at Ego Death Capital. Finance/Engineering blended background.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Fedwire processed over a quadrillion dollars worth of settlement volume last year, at an average pace of about 6 transactions per second. Technically about 9 transactions per second on business days, and then closed during weekends and holidays. image
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LynAlden 1 year ago
I watched Godzilla Minus One. And actually I thought it was really good. There was real plot there for a change. It deals with topics of PTSD, guilt, forgiveness, family, and finding meaning and humanity in a war-torn country. Kind of like how the original 1954 version had a lot of themes. And superficially, this is by far the coolest Godzilla’s breath weapon has ever been. It’s like a nuke going off every time. The movie had a budget for under $15 million despite some expensive actors, and managed to do a whole1940s setting and lots of special effects. Some of the CGI was weaker than Hollywood but the breath weapon was better than any Hollywood treatments of the franchise.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
It’d be cool if there was a Jack Handey quote bot. He’s kind of like the professional shower thoughts guy.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Since the prior two recessions in the US were so big and unusual (2008 and 2020), a lot of people have become accustomed to thinking that something massive for the economy is always around the corner. Now, since the fiat system does trend toward being less and less stable over time, there’s a very real possibility that we will keep getting larger crises. But sometimes there can be periods of just stagnation. Not everything is explosive, economically speaking. And public sector debt bubbles tend to unfold very differently than private debt bubbles.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Apparently I did 37 appearances on WBD over the past four years. That’s like one every month or two on average. View quoted note →
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LynAlden 1 year ago
The funniest part of every picture and video we post, is that AI could fake it. So then things become a question of, do we trust the person with the key who posted it? Web of trust. Like the real world.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
In the late 1960s, my mother went to Woodstock since she knew a doctor and pretended to be a nurse in his medical tent. In the early 1970s, she went to travel Europe as a backpacker for over a year. And then, she traveled to Morocco through Gibraltar, and Morocco had a coup. So my mom got stuck there with little money and few exits. There was a government agent named Mohamed that courted her for a while and would pay her daily; he wanted to marry her and leave. She eventually managed to escape that situation, by befriending a Canadian pot dealer. He was chill, and gave her funds and said to pay him back once she gets home. So she stabilized and was able to get a flight home. My mother and I are opposite personalities. She mostly didn’t raise me; my father did. And yet in every picture, her right ear is visible but never her left. To this day, I get jokes online about never showing my left ear. Every picture. People say it might not exist. It’s fun how that works. Maybe I’ll show my left ear only for Nostr. image
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LynAlden 1 year ago
I get a metric fuckton of interview requests. In my early days I said yes to a lot of things, but now it would take up all of my time so unfortunately I say no to 95% of them. We rate by both size and alignment for first interviews. For recurring interviews though, it's almost entirely just a vibe check. If I like the interviewer, probably met them in person, and literally just enjoy hanging out with them, then I don't care much about metrics. You could be 1/10th the size of someone who gets ghosted and I'll be like, "yeah man let's do it."
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LynAlden 1 year ago
One thing financial analysts tend to discount, is how much fiscal deficits feed into nominal GDP growth. It's a recursive destruction of the denominator that masks the issue. For example Argentina's deficit as a share of GDP historically hasn't been that big, but that's because their large deficit inflates the denominator and brings nominal GDP up at a fast rate. The deficit relative to the GDP from a year or two ago, was indeed a big ratio, but not the deficit relative to the GDP in the year it happens. Similarly, some financial analysts looked at the 1940s USA and saw that the Fed's purchases of Treasuries to fund the war deficit weren't that big of a share of GDP in any given yea. But my counter was, nominal GDP increased massively, due to the huge deficits and monetary base expansions. After a few years, the amount of Treasuries the Fed had purchased relative to the GDP of three years ago... was huge.
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LynAlden 1 year ago
Honestly some of the most actionable and useful advice I've gotten online over the past year is @Steven Lubka saying to go in the sun and walk more, and categorizing all the science behind it. I don't really remember most of what came across my way on Twitter over the year, mostly a bunch of macro bullshit, but now in the morning I immediately go and get some sun if it's out.