The eruption of direct military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025, presented global financial markets with a severe geopolitical shock. Intuition suggests that such a significant escalation of hostilities in a critical region should trigger a sustained downturn in risk assets. However, the market's reaction proved to be far more complex and, on the surface, paradoxical. After an initial, sharp sell-off across global indices, U.S. stock futures—including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100—rebounded and were trading in positive territory by the following Monday, June 16. This report provides an exhaustive, multi-layered explanation for this seemingly contradictory market behavior
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index dropped 1.5% at Sunday’s open, continuing last week’s 1.5% decline. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell 2.5%, while Egypt’s EGX 30 Index plunged 7.7%—marking its steepest drop in over a year. With regional exchanges closed on Friday, today’s sharp moves reflect a buildup of uncertainty and risk aversion heading into the new week.
Procrastination isn’t laziness—it’s a side effect of comfort. When your environment feels safe, your brain sees no urgency to act. That illusion of security kills momentum and delays growth.
Just listen to Market wizard or read about them and you will learn that.
What sets elite traders apart from the pack? It’s not just motivation—it’s relentless action!
In casinos and financial markets alike, success hinges on maintaining a positive statistical advantage—or “edge”—over a sufficiently large number of trials.
For casinos, the edge is built into the rules of each game; it is the mathematical assurance that, over millions of spins, hands, or rolls, the house will collect more than it pays out.
For traders, an edge emerges from carefully constructed strategies—quantitative models, fundamental insights, or both—that offer a statistical expectation of profit over time. Yet, both realms must grapple with short-term variance (“luck” in the casino context, “drawdowns” in trading) and the potential for anomalous outcomes that defy expectations.
In both environments, operators deploy rigorous statistical monitoring to distinguish ordinary fluctuations from genuine threats to their edge: cheating or mechanical errors in casinos; changing market regimes or model breakdowns in trading.
Imagine you’re a carpenter about to build a custom bookshelf. You don’t just grab wood and start hammering—you first measure every board, check the thickness of the shelves, note how tall and wide it needs to be, and ask: “Will it fit under that low ceiling?”
In trading, your “bookshelf” is your model book—a collection of chart patterns, setups, and rules that you’ve measured, tested, and documented.
You need to know every dimension of each pattern: How deep is the drawdown? How many days does it take to form? What market conditions were present? Without those measurements, you’re hammering blind.
#trading
The true difference between successful traders and average ones?
Successful traders show up and execute—even when they’re not motivated.
Don’t get me wrong: inspiration and motivation are powerful tools. They help you push further and tap into your best.
But they’re not always there. And when they’re not, discipline takes over.
Consistency doesn’t come from feelings. It comes from commitment.
How is your weekend screening doing?
🔥 Engulfing Candles and Market Psychology: A Warning You Shouldn’t Ignore
When the market—or an individual stock—drops so sharply that a single candle engulfs the previous 3 to 4 weeks of gains, it's not just another red bar on the chart.
It’s a statement.
A candle that wipes out multiple weeks of progress in a single move is the market rejecting recent optimism, news, or even the company itself.
📉 What Is an Engulfing Candle?
In simple terms:
A bearish engulfing candle is a large red (down) candle that completely covers the range of the previous candle—or several of them.
When it engulfs multiple weekly candles, it's an even more powerful sign of reversal or breakdown.
This usually means:
Institutions are selling.
Support levels are failing.
Recent bullish sentiment is being completely overrun.
🚨 Why This Is a Major Warning Signal
When a stock or index prints a down weekly candle that erases the last 3-4 weeks of gains, here’s what it tells you:
Rejection of Narrative: The market is no longer buying the bullish story—whether it’s earnings, guidance, macro news, or momentum.
Transition to Distribution: It’s a sign that smart money might be exiting quietly while retail investors are still hopeful.
Psychological Shift: Buyers who were in profit are now flat or red. Fear replaces confidence. FOMO turns into panic.
Potential Trend Change: It often marks the start of a deeper correction or downtrend—especially if it happens on high volume.
📊 Real-World Examples
In 2022, many tech stocks had multi-week rallies off bear market lows. Then came one brutal red week that engulfed all progress—and those were often the top before new lows.
During earnings seasons, you’ll sometimes see a stock gap up for 2–3 weeks, then drop 10%+ in one day, wiping it all out. That’s a rejection by the market of the bullish interpretation.
🧠 What You Should Do When You See This
✅ Step back: Don't rush to buy the dip. Wait for confirmation and stability.
✅ Check volume: Was the drop on unusually high volume? That’s institutional activity.
✅ Analyze sentiment: Were traders too bullish too fast? Often, this kind of reversal follows euphoria.
✅ Set alerts: Watch if price undercuts key support or if follow-through buying fails.
🎯 Final Thought
When a candle swallows 3–4 weeks of bullish action, it's the market saying:
"We changed our mind."
This is not a time to argue with price.
Listen. Watch. Protect capital.
If you're patient, a clearer entry or trend will come.
Imagine you're a casino. A casino doesn’t let emotions guide its actions — it doesn’t gamble, it plays the odds.
You want to have an edge, just like the casino. That means having full control over your probabilities, knowing exactly when to accept a trade (take a bet) and when to stand aside.
But if you keep jumping between systems, how will you ever know if you actually have an edge?
🔁 Without consistency, there’s no control. Without control, there’s no strategy.
Do you want to act like the gambler or like the casino? The choice is yours.
On this day, June 6th, as Sweden celebrates its National Day, I give warm congratulations to all Swedes!
It is a fitting occasion to reflect on a cherished symbol of national identity: the Swedish national anthem, "Du gamla, Du fria" (Thou ancient, Thou free).
The anthem's origins date back to 1844, with lyrics penned by the folklorist and antiquarian Richard Dybeck. The melody is a traditional folk tune from the province of Västmanland, which Dybeck adapted to his patriotic text. Interestingly, "Du gamla, Du fria" has never been officially adopted as the national anthem by the Swedish parliament. Its status has been cemented through tradition and popular acclaim, a testament to its enduring place in the hearts of the Swedish people.
The lyrics of "Du gamla, Du fria" are a poetic tribute to Sweden's natural beauty and storied past. The opening lines, "Thou ancient, Thou free, Thou mountainous North," evoke a sense of timelessness and liberty. The song continues to praise the nation's quiet beauty, its sun, sky, and green meadows. It speaks of a nation "enthroned on memories of great olden days," a nod to Sweden's significant history. The anthem's focus on the broader "Norden" (the North) reflects the pan-Scandinavian sentiments of the era in which it was written.
While not officially legislated, "Du gamla, Du fria" is performed at all official state ceremonies, sporting events, and national celebrations. It is a powerful and unifying song that resonates with Swedes both at home and abroad.
Happy National Day to all Swedes! Grattis på nationaldagen!
Why do brilliant people often fail at trading?
A close friend of mine—a highly successful professional—struggled badly in the markets.
Not because he lacked intelligence, but because he tried to outsmart the market.
He wasn’t really chasing profits—he was chasing validation. He wanted to prove he could see value others had missed.
But trading doesn’t reward ego. It rewards adaptability.
📉 The lesson?
The market doesn’t care how smart you are—it only cares how well you listen.
This document emphasizes the crucial role of risk management in trading, starting with a disciplined exit strategy rather than focusing solely on entry points. It highlights that stop losses are not a sign of failure but a vital tool for controlling potential losses and preserving capital for future opportunities. The text also discusses a strategic re-entry approach, advising traders to only re-enter a market if it shows renewed strength after being stopped out. Ultimately, the core message is that surviving and remaining in the market through effective risk control is more important than winning every single trade, thereby protecting both capital and trading psychology.
In today’s meeting, I’ll be showcasing my "Trend Strength" indicator — a tool that measures how much the market favors a stock, scored from -100 to +100.
This isn’t just a technical number—it’s a way to see through the noise and gauge the market’s true sentiment.
📊 I’ve prepared a screenshot of a current example—but I want to stress-test it on more names.
💬 Got a stock in mind? Drop it here and I’ll run it through the indicator live. Let’s see if the market’s whispering or shouting.
Jumping Strategies Too Soon Is a Common Cause of Failure
A key reason traders and investors fail is abandoning a sound long-term strategy during short-term underperformance.
Amateurs often chase systems that seem to always work. When their strategy hits a rough patch—as all strategies eventually do—they quickly shift to something else, hoping for immediate results.
In professional money management, this behavior is called style drift—changing strategy when results dip. It's viewed as a red flag by institutional investors because it signals lack of discipline and conviction.
Strong performance comes from consistency. Staying with a strategy through cycles—while measuring it with long-term data—is what separates professionals from performance chasers.
Is “Buy the Dip” Really a Winning Strategy?
According to What Works on Wall Street by James O’Shaughnessy, buying the worst-performing large-cap stocks—those down the most over the past 12 months—didn’t lead to gains. In fact, the data showed that buying the bottom 10% resulted in declines over the following year.
The takeaway? Momentum and quality matter more than bargain hunting. Sometimes, what looks cheap just keeps getting cheaper.
