Bitcoinprediction.market now has a graph to visualise event forecasting. The market is bullish on a Trump win.

The Bitcoin community has some of the most passionate haters in the world. The purity test and virtue signalling has stifled much creativity in the space. Don’t build products for Bitcoiners, build products for people who want to use Bitcoin.

Benefits of a Bitcoin-based prediction market: 1. Censorship resistance: unstoppable bets and rewards 2. Privacy: no need for an account, just a lightning wallet 3. Hard money: bets are denominated in sats, not fiat Adding nostr in the mix can enable opt-in identity and crowdsourced events.

You can bet with sats on the US election and other events on bitcoinprediction.market

I now see how ecash could actually be a great solution to enable private and anonymous prediction markets with Bitcoin + Lightning.

see past the veil only to witness another illusion

When I hold my keys to my coins

me on nostr talking about nostr

The bottom of one rabbit hole is the entrance to another

Call me crazy but I haven’t yet seen a single post on nostr that would get censored on twitter

Mining pool centralization is fundamentally caused by capital centralization. Miners use pools to reduce their variance, and pools mine for other pools (as proxies) to reduce their variance. Mining pools will only become decentralized if the capital to reduce payout variance becomes decentralized. Until then variance based pooling pressure will cause further hashrate aggregation into megapools that threaten the censorship resistance of Bitcoin.

Free and open prediction markets on nostr are the main potential freedom tech application that can elevate the collective consciousness of humanity. Censorship resistant speech + censorship resistant money Fugazi twitter is not gonna cut it V4V podcasting and music players are not gonna cut it Censorship resistant speech means you should be able to say whatever and not be censored Censorship resistant money means you should be able to pay whoever and not be censored If we are not pushing the bounds on both of these, then we’re not actually making a difference Resistance technology first requires the will to resist the power structure that binds you to your current consitions

Metaverse is the stupidest application of nostr, and it was mentioned at nostrasia as well as an innovation to look forward to. Metaverse is absolutely the wrong direction, worse than a shitcoin memecoin grift. Sounds more like a kindergarden toy diverting attention from the wikileaks level cypherpunk origins of freedom technology This is what happens when web devs just project fantasy ideas of what they think is cool, rather than building what people need to push freedom forward This is what happens when devs are disconnected from the injustice and inhumanity of those in power—they build useless toys that are meant to placate adult children larping as freedom fighters View quoted note →

Nostr is not privacy tech Single pubkey as identity is one of the biggest flaws baked into this system This is what happens when web devs get into the cryptography layer of development Text signed and transported over web relays need a lot more improvement before it can be called cypherpunk technology View quoted note →