Rob Stragegy has added 6 additional bars of @SoapMiner soap to the Hamilton Strategic Soap Reserve
Rob Hamilton
rob@primal.net
npub1emdt...c9aw
I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract!
The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).
Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.
The contract is built as follows:
The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.
We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.
The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.
The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF
The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.
The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.
So to summarize:
- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.
With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.
You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.
Github: 
Address: 
Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!
The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).
Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.
The contract is built as follows:
The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.
We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.
The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.
The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF
The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.
The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.
So to summarize:
- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.
With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.
You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.
Github: GitHub
GitHub - Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures: On chain futures contract on the activation of BIP-444
On chain futures contract on the activation of BIP-444 - Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures
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Here is a vibe coded rebase of BIP-444 by @Luke Dashjr
& Dathon onto Bitcoin Core version 30.
To be clear - this thing vibe coded all the merge conflicts, do not use this for real money, just a visual aid:
GitHub
Vibe Coded rebase of 444 onto version 30 by Rob1Ham · Pull Request #1 · Rob1Ham/bitcoin
To be clear - for visualization purposes only, for the love of Satoshi do not do anything with this code that touches even regtest.
A new prediction market has started!
The question is: Will @Luke Dashjr or @Bitcoin Mechanic acknowledge any prediction or futures market as "legitimate" for the "Reduce Data Temporary Soft Fork".
Odds opened up at 50% and have now gone down to 18%.
I've now been banned from the Knots Telegram channel by @Bitcoin Mechanic where I earlier today saw @Luke Dashjr that he plans his fork being enforced because all mining pools who disagree with him will be thrown in jail.
The debate is over. Enough is enough.
These are attackers of the network willing to throw people in prison to exert their will on the network. If you don't explicitly reject their fork efforts and their actions you are actively complicit with a lawfare style take over of the Bitcoin protocol.
