The 2 weeks prior to the BIP 148 flag day, the network had 71.4% of blocks signaling for Segwit (BIP 141). The 2 weeks prior to the flag day of BIP 110, the network has ~1% of blocks signaling for RDTS. To compare BIP 110 to BIP 148 is deceitful at best, a lie at worst.

I recently got to catch up with a friend of 20 years. Back in 2013 I gave him some bitcoin, and out of all the people who I gave Bitcoin to back then, he was the only one who managed to not lose it. He never sold. That gift seeded his interest and he has been buying regularly since 2017. He told me, “my horizon is 20 years, it’s a growing part of my portfolio, but most of the time I don’t even think about it.” He also was a lifelong agnostic, but recently converted to Catholicism and it renewed his love for life and is now having another kid when he thought he was past that stage of his life. We chatted for 2 hours mostly about theology and family, and a little about bitcoin. At one point a woman who overheard us walked over, to tell us she was so happy to hear these kind of conversations were happening for our generation. She was recently married, and is finishing her medical degree, strategizing when she should start having kids. She told me that her overhearing me say one of my biggest regrets in life was putting off having kids, that she may start her family sooner. This is the revolution. Not day to day price swings, but low time preference investment in not just our portfolios, but our families.

Happy Killdozer Day to those who celebrate

I'm going to say it. The memes have SUCKED this cycle. We deserve lower. No pump until memes don't suck.

I’ve met multiple people this week who are using margin (bitcoin backed loan, Robinhood etc) to buy STRC What stage of the cycle is this?

Santa Deniers down bad this morning Merry Christmas!

Rob Stragegy has added 6 additional bars of @SoapMiner soap to the Hamilton Strategic Soap Reserve

I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract! The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address). Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation. The contract is built as follows: The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active. We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short. The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception. The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf. The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates. So to summarize: - If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out. - If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out. Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood. With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating. You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well. Github:

GitHub

GitHub - Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures: On chain futures contract on the activation of BIP-444

On chain futures contract on the activation of BIP-444 - Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures

Address:

The Mempool Open Source Project®

Explore the full Bitcoin ecosystem with The Mempool Open Source Project®. See the real-time status of your transactions, get network info, and more.

Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!

A new prediction market has started! The question is: Will @Luke Dashjr or @Bitcoin Mechanic acknowledge any prediction or futures market as "legitimate" for the "Reduce Data Temporary Soft Fork". Odds opened up at 50% and have now gone down to 18%.

I've now been banned from the Knots Telegram channel by @Bitcoin Mechanic where I earlier today saw @Luke Dashjr that he plans his fork being enforced because all mining pools who disagree with him will be thrown in jail. The debate is over. Enough is enough. These are attackers of the network willing to throw people in prison to exert their will on the network. If you don't explicitly reject their fork efforts and their actions you are actively complicit with a lawfare style take over of the Bitcoin protocol.

Tell me what the odds need to be moved to @Luke Dashjr and @Bitcoin Mechanic . I put up two bitcoin you put up one? 3 to 1? What do you price it at?

I'm being persecuted and slandered for being a hunble risk merchant.

Twitter vs Nostr in two images. Can’t block me here @Bitcoin Mechanic and @Luke Dashjr 😇 Give me your preferred wording of the prediction market, or take me up on the on chain trustless one I proposed. Also, any futures market you support I’ll be able to post screenshots of the odds anyway, so you’re really in a pickle, trying to make it about me and not the greater point I’m making. Ball is in your court, and even if you think I’m trolling, you’re letting me troll you a lot more by not taking up the bet than avoiding it and not picking up guaranteed bitcoin from your perspective. There isn’t 1 BTC of conviction in you side of the fork? That’s not a good signal.

"Futures markets are fiat and not what bitcoiners do" For those of you newer to Bitcoin, the last time there was a contentious fork, a futures market in 2017 was put up by Bitfinex. @Bitcoin Mechanic will tell you with a straight face they have high conviction in their fork, but will dodge a trustless on chain futures contract, and will ignore the market currently prices a fork at under 5%. He can block me on Twitter, but he can't block the market.

There is now a prediction market for what date the reduce data size soft fork activation client will go live! This one has less liquidity, as its easy to game since @Bitcoin Mechanic can use insider info and make a bet to gurantee he wins the bet, but fun nonetheless! Right now December 31st 2025 is the leader at 65%!

Predyx | Bitcoin Prediction Markets

What date will the "Reduce Data Temporary Soft Fork" activation client release date be closest to (UTC Time)?

To qualify as an activation client, it must have an established block height or time in which the client will explicitly reject blocks which are cu...

"Mom how did we get so rich?" "Your dad bet NO on BIP 444 successfully activating as the main chain"

Predyx | Bitcoin Prediction Markets

Will the "Reduce Data Temporary Soft Fork" be consensus enforced on the most work Bitcoin Chain Tip by March 1st 2026?

The reference for this is Dathon Ohm