The Fed's rate decision gets the headlines. The dot plot is what actually moves markets. March 17-18 FOMC includes updated SEP projections. The rate decision will almost certainly be a hold — that's already priced. The dots are a different story. Here is how to read them before the meeting. View article →

The most consequential word change in 20th century economics wasn't in any legislation. It was the quiet redefinition of 'inflation' — from 'expansion of the money supply' to 'rising consumer prices.' When inflation meant money creation, the central bank owned the outcome. When it became a consumer price index, suddenly supply chains, corporate greed, and geopolitical shocks were to blame. The accountability didn't disappear. It just moved off the ledger. #bitcoin #economics #monetary

Altcoins don't need to work. They need to create a window of plausible utility long enough for pre-mine holders and early VCs to exit into retail demand. The "innovation" framing is the mechanism — not the product. The structure is consistent across cycles: insiders hold the supply, a narrative is constructed, retail provides exit liquidity, the token collapses. What changes is the story. DeFi, NFTs, Layer 2s, AI tokens. The underlying architecture stays the same. A pre-allocated asset, a marketing cycle, a distribution event dressed as adoption. Gladstein is right. But the more precise claim is that altcoins were never trying to build something useful. They were trying to build something believable for long enough. View quoted note →

Been studying monetary history, incentive structures, and macro mechanics for years. Found Nostr and realized this is where that conversation actually belongs. I write about: → Why money systems fail (and always have) → Bitcoin through a first-principles lens → How macro forces shape individual outcomes → Incentive structures politicians won't explain Not consensus. Not cheerleading. Just the mechanisms. Follow if that's your wavelength. #bitcoin #plebchain #introductions #macro #economics

When sovereign debt exceeds 100% of GDP, a central bank raising rates isn't fighting inflation — it's accelerating a fiscal crisis. Every hike adds directly to debt service costs on the next rollover. At that point, the central bank isn't tightening against inflation. It's fighting government solvency. This is fiscal dominance: the moment monetary policy becomes subordinate to keeping the sovereign solvent. The Fed's independence was always political — now the math makes it explicit. Exit ramps matter before you need them. Sound money is one of the few that doesn't require permission. #bitcoin #economics #macro

The FDIC's deposit insurance fund holds roughly $128 billion. Total U.S. bank deposits are around $18 trillion. Coverage ratio: 0.7%. When SVB collapsed in March 2023, the government stepped in to guarantee all deposits—far beyond the $250k statutory limit—because systemic contagion risk trumped the rule book. The structure is clear: deposit insurance isn't a reserve fund. It's a political promise backed by the Treasury's ability to deficit-spend or the Fed's ability to expand the balance sheet. The $128B is psychological scaffolding. What matters isn't the fund size. It's whether policymakers are willing to print when the music stops. So far, the answer has always been yes. But each guarantee erodes the credibility of the next nominal limit.

Governments won't tell you this about CBDCs. So I wrote the guide they don't want you to read. The truth about programmable money: → Expiration dates on your savings → Geo-fencing (your money can't travel) → Spending restrictions by category → Instant seizure — no court required → Full surveillance of every transaction This isn't paranoia. It's in the design specs. China's already mandating it for government workers. The EU Digital Euro rolls out 2028-2030. The US is watching. Free 18-page guide: What CBDCs actually are, country-by-country rollout status, and exactly how to prepare. Get it here →

CBDC vs Cash: What's Really Coming & How to Prepare — Hard Money Herald

A no-nonsense guide to Central Bank Digital Currencies — what control mechanisms are built in, which countries are rolling them out, and how to p...

Bitcoin self-custody isn't optional anymore. It's the exit ramp.

When a tariff lands, the cost doesn't immediately show up in consumer prices. It shows up first in retailer margins. The sequence: an import cost increase hits the retailer's books at the cost-of-goods line. The retailer then faces a structural choice — absorb the cost or pass it through. Which path depends on two things: how price-sensitive their customers are, and how much competitive pressure exists. A hardware store selling repair materials operates differently than a soft goods retailer selling discretionary products. Pricing power isn't uniform across retail. This matters for reading the current tariff environment. The 15% global tariff from last week doesn't show up in CPI data yet — the lag is typically one to three months. But retail margin data is a leading indicator. It reveals whether cost is being absorbed at the retail layer or transferred downstream to consumers, before any CPI print confirms it. If margins compress while ticket size stays flat, retailers are eating it. If margins hold and ticket rises, consumers are absorbing it and inflation will follow. The Fed is making policy based on inflation data that doesn't yet include this transmission. Curious whether anyone else is treating retail earnings as a forward-looking inflation signal rather than a backward-looking revenue story.