VarMur

Knots vs Core is an example of Bitcoin anti fragility in action. It’s an example of the cyber hornets rising and buzzing in defence of the network. It looks chaotic and unstructured, but is a manifestation of the inherent resilience of #Bitcoin. One reason the debate is polarised is that the underlying problem may not be recognised. The only reason to have a mempool is not just fee estimation, it is also to construct block templates for mining. Since such template production is, in practice, centralised enough that we can successfully submit transactions directly to large pools, the real solution to this issue may be linked to the efforts to decentralise the majority of block template production - like what Ocean and others are doing. The actual problem or solution isn’t clear to me, but we’ll get there, eventually.

The #bitcoin block enables the first counter party risk free transaction in history. All transactions, which is what makes a market, involve the exchange of one thing for another thing. If I buy 🍌 bananas from a fruit vendor, the bananas are separate from the money I pay for them, so either party CAN cheat, since I can take the bananas without paying, and he can take my money without delivering the bananas. It doesn’t happen often due to legal enforcement or social contract, but it always could. Since the transaction involves two separate exchanges, it is always possible for either party to get cheated. The block, on the other hand, is an atomic event that enforces both exchanges simultaneously. The user gets his bitcoin transaction confirmed, and the miner gets the fees from the transaction - both in one event - the block is accepted, or not. If the block is re-orged, both exchanges are undone, simultaneously, and the transaction goes back to pending mode. Is there any other transaction in the world that has this property?

Not sure 🤔 if this is correct, but I think there’s at least a pair of arb trades between #STRK and #MSTR at conversion price and beyond - short one and use proceeds to go long the other. The convertibility of STRK implies that Price (STRK) >= Price (0.1 MSTR) If we assume that MSTR is at 1000, STRK must be at least 100. Due to the yield and liquidation preference, STRK will have a premium. The Effective Yield of STRK drops as its price increases, and so does the percentage of STRK price with the higher liquidation preference. So, in general, we can expect STRK premium to decline as MSTR rises (not true when broad market interest rates and/or perceived credit worthiness of the STR’s changes). Further, with a simplifying condition that MSTR remains at and then above 1000, and STRK is at 100, we get two long/short trades - Short MSTR, long 10 STRK. Short leg pays 1000 cash, and costs the Borrow Rate of MSTR. Long (10 STRK) with the 1000 cash, so cost of position is covered. This position pays the Effective Yield of STRK. All losses on the short position due to MSTR price rises are hedged by the long STRK position. If the STRK premium declines, there may be a small loss incurred. In addition, maybe you could loan the long STRK position and earn the Borrow Rate of STRK. Profit persists as long as Borrow Rate (MSTR) < Effective Yield (STRK) + Borrow Rate (STRK) - Short 10 STRK, long 1 MSTR Short leg pays 1000 again, and costs the Borrow Rate of STRK in addition to the Effective Yield of STRK. Long 1 MSTR with this 1000, loan the MSTR share. If the STRK premium expands, the long position doesn’t fully cover the short position here, but STRK premium will likely decline as MSTR rises. Profit persists until Borrow Rate (STRK) + Effective Yield (STRK) < Borrow Rate (MSTR) - Equilibrium is when Borrow Rate (MSTR) = Effective Yield (STRK) + Borrow Rate (STRK) At conversion and beyond, there should be short pressure on MSTR or STRK until this condition is met, causing the yield on lending your MSTR position to at minimum match the yield of an equivalent STRK position. Even if, as likely, STRK costs more than 0.1 MSTR at 1000 dollar MSTR, the equilibrium condition just offsets by a proportional amount. In addition, I haven’t considered margin requirements for maintaining these positions. Please reply and/or repost this if you consider it worthwhile. I welcome any insights / corrections as well! #bitcoin #saylor

I suspect that we are deceived by artificial intelligence because we have no freaking clue what natural intelligence is.

You may not be interested in #Bitcoin, but bitcoin is interested in you. Doesn’t matter if you are a maxi, a no-coiner or a fiat worshiper. Bitcoin continues to eat up claims on the pie of all economic produce. Either your share will grow or diminish. Less or more. Complacency in taking an informed position will cost you. You may not be interested in war, but …

Volatility is a consequence of course correction in robust and natural systems. The hubris of central planning to eliminate all volatility is born out of arrogance and weakness, and instead of experiencing the bumps along the correct road, and being strengthened by them, it keeps to the smooth and easy road which leads directly to the cliff.

they say #bitcoin has no intrinsic value. because it does not produce a cash flow all it can do is re engineer, a 100x better, the monetary layer of humanity. the layer which is the life blood of all value that has been created by communication and cooperation making this better makes humanity better at this. much better i think. then the intrinsic value of everything goes up and cash flow becomes bitcoin flow they say

“I’ll be buying #bitcoin at the top forever” - Saylor We’re all going to do this, aren’t we. Until everyone stops selling it and will only spend it.

I used to think that we would see diminishing returns over successive halving cycles, but can no longer hold that view. What we will see is diminishing volatility. If adoption follows the s-curve, which we have strong reason to believe it will, we are - in terms of total world wealth - barely at the beginning. Easily below 1%. (1.3T of 900T) Similar to all the shitcoins which clearly show exponential decay when priced in #bitcoin, the price of bitcoin should show decay in *volatility* while finding the underlying s-curve. At sub 1%, the s-curve has barely started its exponential trajectory. Diminishing returns will occur only after the halfway mark of adoption. As #JeffBooth so clearly explains, the 900T of world wealth will easily be twice that in a while, due to the unstoppable debasement of all fiat. It won’t stop there. Bitcoin will gain as a function of both depreciating fiat, and increase in demand and adoption along the s-curve. I have no frame of reference to guess what this will look like, anon. Do you?