Kasjan

Saylor just posted something cryptic. "What if we start adding green dots?" Most people think it means MSTR share buybacks. I think they're wrong. ❌ 🟢 Green dots = BTC buys funded through a BTC-backed bank line. Overcollateralized. SOFR + ~1%. Same dots, new source of capital. 🔶 Why does this matter? If banks accept Bitcoin as collateral, borrowing against it becomes far cheaper. For everyone. This is a massive long-term validation. And Strategy wants us to notice. 🔶 Why am I confident? In January 2025, while everyone was focused on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (which never happened), I was focused on something else: SAB121 repeal. I predicted those accounting rules would change. They did—shortly after. That change made BTC-backed bank lines possible. 🔓 Now, close to one year later, it's about time to see this implemented. The mainstream says: share buybacks. I say: Bitcoin-backed credit lines from major banks. We'll see who's right. 👉 Follow for more contrarian takes and nuanced analysis on Bitcoin, saving, and investing. #Bitcoin #MSTR #Saylor

Kraken charged my father 2.9% to buy Bitcoin. The real fee? 0.3%. They hid the cheap option and hoped he wouldn't notice. My father has been buying Bitcoin for a while now. Small amounts, nothing crazy. Last week I asked him: "Did you nail the bottom? What price did you get?" He gave me exact numbers—including all the decimals on the BTC amount. Something didn't add up. "Wait. The math doesn't work." 😐 No typos. I had him show me his Kraken account. Here's what I found: He's been using Kraken's default instant buy feature this entire time. They charged him around 3% per transaction. Kraken Pro—literally one setting toggle away—charges 0.25% + minimal spread (~0.3% total). They made nearly 10x more by hiding the cheaper option. 🫠 And he's been doing this for months. I called my non-trader friends and family who buy Bitcoin occasionally. Every single one: using the expensive "beginner" interfaces. Collectively, they've lost hundreds—maybe thousands—over the years. This isn't an accident. 💠 Exchanges design their interfaces this way: Default = expensive (2-3%) "Pro" = cheap (0.2-0.4%) No warning. No notification. They're counting on you not knowing there's a cheaper option one click away. 💠 Check your exchange today: Kraken: Toggle "Kraken Pro" in settings Coinbase: Switch to "Advanced Trade" Other exchanges: Look for "Pro" or "Trading" mode Usually one click away. Could save you thousands. Share this with anyone buying Bitcoin on exchanges. I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money” Get notified when it's out → soundmoneyroad.com hasztag#Kraken hasztag#Coinbase hasztag#BrokenPrices

Discussing Bitcoin with boomers in 2025 be like:

𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗹𝘀. Bank run in progress. In the last 24 hours, users have pulled 37% of all funds. The exchange? MEXC. The CEO publicly admitted—at least once—that funds get blocked or unblocked when they "get emotional." Yes, you read that right. Your funds. Their emotions. (Most likely they have serious liquidity problems. The emotions are just the cherry on top.) This is why "not your keys, not your coins" isn't just a slogan. Exchanges can—and do—take or lose your Bitcoin: ▪️ Hacks (Mt. Gox, Bitfinex) ▪️ Exit scams (QuadrigaCX, Thodex) ▪️ Fraud (FTX—CEO's girlfriend needed to cover bad trades, customers paid the bill) And now: withdrawals frozen based on feelings. The reality: If an exchange is insolvent, there won't be enough funds for everyone. The last people to withdraw lose everything. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗱𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁. Some things to consider: 1. 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱—if done properly, no one can confiscate or steal your Bitcoin (except through physical force). But this requires learning how to do it right. 2. 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀—stick to large, established ones (founded before 2015). Even then, don't store more than you're willing to lose. 3. 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵—tools in the comment below let you track Bitcoin balances on exchanges. Sudden drops = warning sign. If you have funds on MEXC: 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄 𝗶𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 if you still can. It's could be over for them. I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money”—a book about money and Bitcoin. Get notified when it launches → soundmoneyroad.com 📖 Tools to monitor exchange balances: Bitcoin balances on exchanges (more reliable, shorter list): https://www.coinglass.com/Balance "Clean Assets" balances in USD (less reliable, bigger list): https://defillama.com/cexs Note: Having balances on these lists does not guarantee solvency. ☠️ #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #MEXC #BrokenPrices

A senior finance director once told me: "I hate Bitcoin." This is someone I respect. Smart guy. Decades of experience. And yet... he hates Bitcoin. Let me tell you what "I hate Bitcoin" actually means: ❌ "I hate money" → No ❌ "I hate good technology" → No ✅ "I hate that young people found an exit" → Yes 🔸 Here's the uncomfortable truth The boomer generation built wealth in a specific system: - Buy stocks (they go up forever) - Buy bonds (safe yield) - Buy real estate (prices only rise) - Repeat for 40 years It worked. Because the money supply expanded faster than the asset base, inflating everything they owned. Now they're retiring. And they need someone to buy those assets at inflated prices. 🔸 Then Bitcoin appeared. Young people look at the game and see: - Stocks at all-time highs (P/E ratios make no sense) - Bonds yielding 2% while they print 6% new currency per year - Real estate requiring 10+ year salaries for a down payment - Pensions that won't exist when they retire And they say: "No thanks. I'll take the fixed-supply digital asset instead." This is the real threat. If the next generation opts out and buys Bitcoin instead of boomer assets... Who's buying the stocks at these valuations? Who's buying the bonds that lose 4% per year in real terms? Who's buying the house for $800k that cost $80k in 1985? They don't hate Bitcoin because it's a scam. They hate it because it's an "exit"—and someone needs to stay in the system to buy their bags. "I hate Bitcoin" = "I hate that you found a way out before I could sell you my overpriced assets." I'm writing about this wealth transfer in "Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money" 📖 Get notified → soundmoneyroad.com #Bitcoin #ExitStrategy #Finance #BrokenPrices

There are only 2 endgames for shitcoins: 1) Rugpull - quick and painless 2) Slow rug - over years, you pivot narratives (payments → DeFi → NFTs → ultrasound money → RWA) while dumping on noobs who think "this time it pumps". KDA team: hackathon yesterday, shutting down today.

I just open-sourced institutional due diligence on a $1.2B real estate tokenization project. Commissioned by a private investor + legal counsel. They agreed to publish the complete report. With RWA heating up again, here's what professional diligence actually found: - $1.2B in claimed assets - zero proof of ownership - No legal mechanism linking tokens to property rights - "Zero risk" yield with no disclosed cash flow source - No verified founders or governance Full report (methodology, red flags, competitive analysis): soundmoneyroad.com This is what real diligence looks like - and why most tokenization projects can't survive it.

The $19 Billion Lesson Nobody Wants to Learn Friday, October 10th, 2025. While you slept, $19 billion evaporated from the crypto markets in what became the largest liquidation event in digital asset history. 1.6 million traders woke up to discover their portfolios had vanished. Multi-million dollar accounts reduced to zero. One top-100 token—ATOM—literally hit zero on Binance. Not "nearly zero." Zero. 👋 Here's what happened: A sophisticated whale exploited Binance's price oracle, manipulating the data feed that determines collateral values across the exchange. As collateral values crashed, cascading liquidations ripped through thousands of leveraged positions like dominoes. 📉 Then Trump escalated the China trade war via social media post—conveniently timed during the lowest liquidity hours of the trading week. The timing raises questions nobody in power wants to answer. The result? Junk coins down 80% or more. (See image below - this is an unleveraged portfolio that survived the carnage. No margin calls, no liquidations. Just straight portfolio destruction 🪦 .) Fortunes built on leverage, destroyed in hours. But even if you played it "safe" without leverage, Friday was a masterclass in why the casino doesn't need margin to take your money. 🟠 And here's the part that matters: This wasn't a black swan event. This was the casino operating exactly as designed. The house always wins, and leverage always finds its victims. There's a different game being played—one that doesn't require you to gamble, trade, or stay awake monitoring positions at 3am. Bitcoin. Not for trading. For saving. 🪙 "But the returns!" you say. Here's the thing: we're still at less than 0.5% of global savings allocated to Bitcoin. We're not late. We're absurdly early🌱 . The adoption curve hasn't even begun its vertical climb. You can capture extraordinary returns without playing in the casino. You just have to be patient enough to let adoption do the work while everyone else is getting liquidated chasing 100x shitcoins. The crypto market just taught a $19 billion lesson. Most people have already ignored it and reloaded their gambling accounts. You don't have to be most people.

Here’s the original caption for this excellent chart (posted by [@Ra89Capital] on X): “Make no mistake, it [Bitcoin] hasn’t done jack f*cking shit in years vs real money.” My take: 1️⃣Use the right denominator. Any serious financial comparison needs a sound unit of account — not a fiat currency that steadily loses purchasing power (including the USD 💵). 2️⃣Frustration is real. What might be counterintuitive, people who understand point #1 have been disappointed with Bitcoin’s performance in recent years. Sentiment in Bitcoin circles isn’t great 🤦‍♂️⛈️— and the chart captures why. 3️⃣Bitcoin vs. gold. Holding Bitcoin has still beaten holding gold: 🔸Physical gold is easy to confiscate🫳💰; Bitcoin isn’t🫳🖕. 🔸Gold ☎️faces existential risk from Bitcoin — its digital successor📱. 🔸Bitcoin is ~10x smaller than gold and adopting much faster, which leaves more room for sharp upside🚀. It may take patience😴, but the asymmetry remains. If you’d like this and much more explained in plain, no-jargon language, drop your email on my site — I’ll let you know when my book “Broken Prices”📖 is out. It will make concepts like “the right denominator” feel simple and intuitive. 👉 SoundMoneyRoad.com #Bitcoin #SoundMoney #BrokenPrices #Macro #Finance

Gold wasn’t valuable because of jewelry 📿. It was money first—and that’s why people wore it. The popular tale says we loved shiny trinkets and then they became money. Sounds nice. But it’s backwards. Gold beat other goods because it’s durable, divisible, verifiable, and highly value-dense. Crucially, its stock-to-flow is high: the total stock already above ground dwarfs the new annual supply, so new mining⛏️ barely dilutes holders. That’s why it worked so well for saving and exchange. After gold became money, people did the obvious thing: they wore their savings. In many cultures, gold jewelry functions as a portable savings account—wealth you can carry, pledge, or pass down. As Nick Szabo put it, early “collectibles” evolved into money because they were superb at storing and signaling value across time and groups. Jewelry followed money—not the other way around. Myth busted: We didn’t prize gold due to ornaments. We made ornaments out of gold because it was already the best money 🪙. #gold #investing #Bitcoin #SoundMoney #AustrianEconomics

That viral “gold vs U.S. Treasuries” chart is misleading. ❗ It compares gold (a reserve asset) to USTs (just one instrument inside USD-denominated FX assets). Apples 🍎 vs oranges 🍊 . 1️⃣ What are “total reserves” ❓ For simplicity: Total reserves = FX assets 🏦 (e.g., U.S. Treasuries, USD/EUR bank deposits) + gold 🪙 + SDRs 🧻 (IMF-created reserve asset that can be swapped for currency). 2️⃣ Today’s rough mix (shares of total reserves): 🪙 Gold: ~20% 💵 USD (all USD-denominated FX assets, not just Treasuries): ~46% 💶 EUR: ~16% 🧻 Other: ~18% 3️⃣ Why USTs ≠ the whole USD picture (and what’s the split?) Within USD FX assets globally (100% = USD only): 🧻 U.S. Treasuries: ~50% 🧻 USD bank deposits: ~43% 🧻 Other (agencies/MBS, MMFs, supranationals): ~7% 4️⃣ Is the USD share in reserves collapsing like some charts suggest? No. The Fed’s 2025 update shows the USD share of FX reserves has been roughly stable around ~58%, only ~1–2pp lower than 2021–22. If you include gold (whose price rose), the USD share of total reserves edges down a bit more—still a modest drift, not a collapse. (Reminder: the Fed figure is FX-only; adding gold changes the denominator.) ✨ Bottom line: The chart pits gold vs USTs, not gold vs USD. Gold’s share is up mainly because gold’s price rose, and while that mechanically trims the USD share of total reserves a little, the USD’s role in reserves still remains steady. 🟠 Personal note: I do expect gold’s share to continue rising 📈 and the USD share to continue declining 📉 —but likely more slowly 🐢 than many would like. Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition-20250718.html <-great report on the topic. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/208161634873587549/pdf/Central-Bank-Reserve-Management-Practices-Insights-into-Public-Asset-Management.pdf #CentralBankReserves #Gold #DeDollarization #SoundMoney #economics #finance #USDollar

👇 English below Kilka dni temu brałem udział w rozmowie z Richard Zalski z Radio WNET oraz z Oskar Pilch w ramach „Pomarańczowego Studia”, audycji poświęconej Bitcoinowi. Tym razem rozmawialiśmy o: 🔸 tym dlaczego Bitcoin? 🔸 tym dlaczego cena Bitcoina rośnie? 🔸 Bitcoinie jako barometrze płynności, 🔸 deflacji technologicznej. Zapraszam do odsłuchania! 🔶 ENG: A few days ago, I took part in a thought-provoking conversation with Richard Zalski from Radio WNET and Oskar Pilch as part of “Orange Studio” show, dedicated to Bitcoin. We talked about: 🔸 why Bitcoin? 🔸 why BTC price "constantly" rises? 🔸 BTC as liquidity barometer, 🔸 technological deflation. The conversation is in Polish, but Google Translate works surprisingly well. More English content coming later this year — stay tuned! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsZg86QC2CI

Back from a rainy Hong Kong 🌧️—just recorded with Fernando on the Bitcoin Libertarian podcast nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyzsp9hyz808cp402ma9kdqcr2c6tcs83kzjjh9vz0zmthjtytzns6snkdlf . We covered: 1️⃣ My upcoming book — 🔖Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money Get first-release updates: soundmoneyroad.com 2️⃣ Why prices feel “broken” The tug-of-war between Technological Deflation and Monetary Expansion (with the Ford F-Series as a simple example). 3️⃣ Real estate in Hong Kong and globally. 4️⃣ Saving is hard—what the future of saving could look like. 5️⃣ Inheritance scenario—what Fernando might do if/when he gets a house. 6️⃣ Bitcoin-treasury companies—how to think about them. If this resonates, follow for more. Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9SGlf3g9VU

The Dark Side of the Bitcoin Rush ⛈️ After years of meetups, conferences, and working with Bitcoiners, my conviction in this community has only grown. When you can truly save—without fear of confiscation—people become more independent and future-oriented. The result is an unusually optimistic, hopeful culture 🌈 . Lately, though, something has shifted. What few say out loud is this: we’ve drifted into a free-for-all where the scoreboard is: “how much Bitcoin you have on the other side of this monetary revolution”. Some of the original ethos—freedom, privacy, mutual support—has been eroded by a Bitcoin-rush mindset. With a fixed supply and only a small portion left to be mined, the pressure is on: Everyone is racing to accumulate as much ‘cheap’ Bitcoin as possible today—before the world catches up to this monetary revolution. You can already see the symptoms: reputations monetized in short-sighted ways, low-effort products and courses, paid shills, rug pulls—and on the labor side, underpaying people desperate to work “in Bitcoin.” Do real due diligence. Understand incentives. Protect your time and your keys. Don’t be the sucker at the table. What changes have you noticed in the culture since 2024–2025?

The fight over Bitcoin boils down to first principles: Austrian-leaning/Bitcoin-maxi folks see value as subjective—discovered by markets. Fiat loyalists treat value as something to be engineered by central planning—via policy, subsidies, bailouts.

On Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The Case Study of NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA) Yesterday, one of the most prominent Bitcoin treasury companies, $NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA), plummeted 55% 📉 . This amplified its dismal one-month performance to -80% and marked a staggering 97% decline from its peak on May 22, 2025. WHAT HAPPENED? 1️⃣ It began with an intensive marketing campaign, perfectly timed to capitalize on the "Bitcoin treasury companies" wave. 2️⃣ The stock price rose on very low volume before skyrocketing to over $30 per share in May 2025. There are unconfirmed allegations of wash trading—price manipulation by individuals connected to the company—which would have been straightforward to execute given the low volume-to-market-cap ratio at the time. 3️⃣ $NAKA sold a significant amount of equity (equivalent to over 80% of its fully diluted market cap) in mid-2025 at $1.12 USD per share. 4️⃣ Investors who acquired this equity at $1.12 were positioned for a massive 20x profit when the market price exceeded $20. Savvy investors hedged this enormous profit by shorting the stock. 5️⃣ Eventually, these shares began unlocking—allowing them to be sold on the open market—after 90 days, right around now. 6️⃣ The stock price collapsed, with the $1.12 level acting like a magnet pulling it downward. This has left many retail investors, who bought shares in the $10-30 range during the hype, feeling rug-pulled. However, if private equity holders are sitting on substantial profits relative to the current public stock price, there's a strong likelihood they'll take those gains, triggering market collapses. Several other Bitcoin treasury companies face similar large unlocks in the near future (e.g., as noted by @Pledditor on X regarding $ASST). You can try to make an extra buck on Bitcoin treasury companies, OR you could simply buy Bitcoin, hold it in self-custody, and relax. 🌈 Further Reading: 🔶 Who bought $NAKA private equity?, from @Pledditor: https://x.com/Pledditor/status/1967631555469402175 🔶 Great research from @bigmagicdao, from early June 2025: https://x.com/bigmagicdao/status/1929924199881289962 #BitcoinTreasury #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #Investing

Can stablecoin issuers save the US dollar? Andrew Tate claims that pushing Bitcoin to $1M could “save the dollar” by forcing stablecoin issuers to buy U.S. government debt. Let’s break down whether that idea holds up. 🟢 What are stablecoins? Stablecoins are digital dollars on blockchain rails, backed by real U.S. dollars or government debt. Two issuers dominate: Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Together they’ve issued nearly $250B, with around $200B parked in U.S. Treasuries. Tether alone is now among the top 20 holders of U.S. government debt. 🟢 Does the dollar even need saving? The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, but the balance sheet is ugly. U.S. debt is 120%+ of GDP. Historically, crossing 130% often precedes default within a decade (Reinhart, Rogoff). In 2024, for the first time ever, the U.S. government spent more on interest than on the military. That’s a classic red flag for declining empires. So yes, the dollar is strong globally, but structurally fragile. 🟢 Bitcoin and stablecoins move together When Bitcoin rallies, stablecoin issuance explodes. Bigger BTC market cap → bigger positions, more collateral, more reserves. Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $2.2T, almost 10x the stablecoin market. If Bitcoin hit $1M, stablecoins could plausibly grow 10x too — to around $2.5T. That means perhaps $2T flowing into U.S. Treasuries. Massive. But here’s where Tate’s theory breaks down 👇 🟢 Three problems 🔶 Structural deficits 💸 In 2024 alone, the U.S. issued $2T of new debt. Even if stablecoins pumped overnight, that covers just one year of overspending. The last budget surplus was in 2001. The U.S. isn’t fixing its deficits — it’s doubling down. 🔶 Better yields elsewhere 💰 Stablecoins can earn 2–3x Treasury yields just by being lent out in Bitcoin markets — without taking price risk on Bitcoin itself. In bull runs, these rates have spiked to 25–50%. Faced with that, why would investors settle for 4% from Treasuries? 🔶 Bitcoin escape velocity 🚀 Pushing BTC to $1M risks unleashing it beyond anyone’s control. Suddenly, everyday people would find their net worth multiplied. Merchants would be incentivized to accept Bitcoin directly, kickstarting circular economies. At that point, Bitcoin stops “saving” the dollar and starts replacing it. 🟢 The takeaway Stablecoins delay the dollar’s reckoning by buying Treasuries in the short term. But they can’t save it. America’s problem isn’t a lack of buyers — it’s a lack of fiscal discipline. And the more Bitcoin grows, the more obvious that problem becomes.

From Declined Cards to Lightning Fast This week, I tried to buy a new internet domain. Normally I use SquareSpace (which took over Google Domains), and it always worked just fine. But this time? My payment didn’t go through. Strange, since I’ve been a customer for over two years. So I double-checked everything: • Card details? ✔ • Billing address? ✔ • Tried three different cards? ✔✔✔ Still nothing. All payments failed. The thing is, legacy payments aren’t just “you → merchant.” There are half a dozen middlemen who can block the transaction at any point: 1. Card issuer (e.g., WISE) 2. Network (e.g., Visa) 3. Payment processor (e.g., Square) 4. Merchant's bank (e.g., Chase) 5. Currency conversion provider 6. The merchant itself (e.g., SquareSpace) Some mismatch in your address, a suspicious flag, or a system hiccup—and you're locked out. After wasting far too much time and energy, I gave up and went to a different provider. One that accepted Bitcoin via Lightning Network. This time, I used a non-custodial Lightning wallet. ✅ No card issuer ✅ No Visa ✅ No bank Just me → the merchant. And it worked instantly. It felt like a small miracle. Or more precisely—a glimpse of the future. It left me with two big questions: 1. What do people without Bitcoin do in this situation? o Apply for another card and try again? o Switch providers until one works? o Or just give up on their idea altogether? 2. Is it just me—or are the wheels starting to fall off the fiat payments wagon? Picture unrelated. Or... is it?

👇 English below Kilka dni temu brałem udział w rozmowie z Richard Zalski z Radio WNET oraz z Radek Pogoda w ramach „Pomarańczowego Studia”, audycji poświęconej Bitcoinowi. Tym razem rozmawialiśmy o własności prywatnej: o zakusach rządów oraz o tym, jak się przed nimi ochronić. Zapraszam do odsłuchania! 🔶 ENG: A few days ago, I took part in a thought-provoking conversation with Richard Zalski from Radio WNET and Radek Pogoda as part of “Orange Studio” show, dedicated to Bitcoin. This time, we talked about private property - how the governments violate it and how to protect ourselves. The conversation is in Polish, but Google Translate works surprisingly well. More English content coming later this year — stay tuned! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPZDcAX-pAg

SATS BOUNTY - 5 000 SATS Reposition the top speech bubble so that its tail clearly points to the man on the right, instead of the woman. Do not change the text or anything else. First come, first served, valid for 48 hours from now.