美国一妓女预测美国即将进入经济衰退,她晒出自己2023年的收入比之前少了64%。
不要笑,这在经济学上是个非常准确的指标,学名叫“脱衣舞女指数(the stripper index)”,很多性产业的指标比经济学家更准确的指出什么时候会有经济衰退。
一般商品价格具有滞后性,不能快速反应供求状况,产业链越短,价格对供求信息反应越迅速,但愿鲍威尔在经济危机爆发前能有更好的数据开启降息进程。
Dewey
dewey@nostr.fan
npub1ka86...fmtf
Give me liberty or give me death
在这个世界上,平等地待人和试图使他们平等这两者之间的差别总是存在。前者是一个自由社会的前提条件,而后者则像D •托克维尔描述的那样,意味着“ 一种新的奴役形式”。
-哈耶克《个人主义与经济秩序》
下悬梯被老婆单手用力搀扶,会面时走路颠簸,基本可以判定腿部不适,如果是临时受伤应该不碍事,但是综合考虑会上喝中药,老婆亲自出来抓军事权力,国安部门频频亮剑来看,恐怕不是临时受伤这么简单,领袖健康是最高机密,但对身边的幕僚很难保密,为了防止潜伏内部的敌人伺机而动,上面那些措施是向敌人示威,告诉对方不要轻举妄动,一场大戏可能已经开始,最狠毒的独裁者与最狡猾的敌人之间的战争已经在平静的表面下激烈的展开。
习近平召开政治局常委会,决定拯救房地产,期望房地产再次繁荣,能帮他们解决眼下的地方财政危机,金融危机和失速衰退的经济危机,这说明以习为代表的最高决策层基本已经认识到:
1、那些所谓“专家”忽悠的新能源为代表的新质生产力就是扯淡,它们无法撑起一个大国的经济发展基础,他们都在谎报军情,把习当傻子耍。
2、以国有企业为主大规模投资对经济带动的作用基本为零,城投公司爆雷还引发了大量的金融风险,大规模专项债坏账带来的中央财政收支不平衡的风险,这条被很多专家奉为圭臬的计划经济实践基本宣告失败。
3、习对房地产过于痛恨,对开发商更是恨之入骨,特别是那个写文章骂他的任志强,但是现在形势严峻,再玩儿下去政权有被颠覆的危险,临时委屈一下,以前定案的开发商必须严惩,但行业政策还需要持续放松,他们需要房地产来拯救岌岌可危的局面。
4、以前对金融行业整顿的不够深入,很多贪官没有挖出来,纪委工作不到位,没有完成考核目标,但同样,现在形势危急,需要金融业再次振兴来刺激创业,扭转失速下滑局面。
习主席为了习家王朝统治稳定,在尝试了12年计划经济转向后发现有点激进,玩砸了,短期危机可能威胁到政权安全,所以需要缓一下,让老百姓喘口气,但不代表习会改变自己的初衷,这种无奈之举作出的改变并不能起到想要的效果,原因有三:
1、习为代表的团队认知能力太低,根本无法理解为什么自由,法治,民主,私有财产神圣不可侵犯对经济的发展如此重要,在他们眼里经济不就是老百姓做买卖吗?我给你们放松一下,让你们暂时自由买卖不就行了,干嘛还要那么多东西,那都是祖辈打下的江山最核心的利益,是坚决不能让渡的。
2、房地产已经死透,不仅仅是因为打压,根本问题是经济危机持续发酵,大量失业人口无法获取收入,对未来悲观绝望,活下去都是问题,还买个鸡毛的房子?!房地产繁荣是经济发展的结果,不是原因,本末倒置,企图刺激房地产来拉动衰弱不堪的经济是猴子捞月。
3、习近平的独裁,专制,蛮横霸道对民主法治,对政治生态和对外经贸关系是毁灭性的打击,人们对未来没有任何期望,甚至是感到恐惧,在这种情况下还想让人们消费,投资,买房子简直是痴心妄想。
以上,本轮房地产救市不可能凑效,顶多就是喘口气,甚至放松还会引发市场踩踏。有人给习出了馊主意,主动拉高通胀,逼人们投资,消费,效果已经略有显现,人们会选择兑换美元,购买黄金来抵御通胀,不会去搞实业和房地产投资了。
“When there is private ownership of the means of production everywhere and when the laws, the tribunals, and the administration treat foreigners and citizens on equal terms, it is of little importance where a country’s frontiers are drawn.”
— Ludwig von Mises
“Depressions and mass unemployment are not caused by the free market but by government interference in the economy.”
— Ludwig von Mises
习皇可能是中国高层领导人里面唯一一个有着共产主义浪漫情怀的人,这是由他的知识层次和历史经历形成的特殊认知决定的,在他心里,集体主义,人定胜天,千古一帝,以及像古装戏里面的封建君臣社会才是理想的中国,他这些年一直在努力的改造他想要的中国,就算国家和人民付出再多的代价也不为所动,这个可怜的人,不停的宣扬他滑稽的所谓理论,起初没人迎合,恼羞成怒之下,动用权谋把中国变成了他的家天下,于是,身边就开始有人开始鼓吹膜拜他那套荒谬绝伦的高论,恨不得每时每刻都要为全世界指明方向,然而,理想是丰满的,现实是残酷的,在改造中国的过程中有太多打脸糟心的事让他羞愤,想通过构建主义打造他的习家王朝难度超出了他的预期,遭到了全国上下的抵抗,全世界的耻笑,焦虑和不安就像幽灵一样笼罩在他夫妻的头上,于是把安全保卫加强到无以复加,不停的清洗武装力量,长期神经紧张导致体态发胖,睡眠不足,尽管有中国甚至世界最顶级的医疗保障,依然阻挡不了生病的结果,现在全世界都猜到了,面前两个茶杯,有一杯是中药,可恨又可笑的是身边那么多幕僚兄弟,没有一个人敢忤逆他的认知,告诉他中医治疗弊大于利,长期下去会给身体器官造成不可逆的损伤,他就像崇祯皇帝一样,焦虑的苦苦煎熬着,虽然掌握了全世界最强大的政治权力,但他并不快乐,也不安全,就这样一天一天的过去,有时甚至会怀疑当初做了那么多狠事,换来他不想要的今天是否值得,可能他也不知道自己能撑到什么时候,但是只要他在一天,中国就必须是他想要的样子。这种发自内心对权力的热爱,对理想的追求,远远高于西方那些卑鄙无耻的政客,比如想为加拿大人服务终生的特鲁多,想当北约头子的诈骗犯马克龙,企图左右逢源,上下揩油的舒尔茨,还有想当帮派老大,重塑世界秩序的二愣子川普,与他们相比,习皇更简单,更纯粹,他只想建立一个在他无所不能指导下,公平正义强大,威慑四方的中华帝国。
A young man waiting for real estate and Bitcoin prices to come down 

从最高法对婚姻法解释的骚操作,结合前一段皇后的公开新闻,基本可以推断,尽管没有政治上的名分,实际上皇后已经从幕后走到台前开始左右高层政治了。
独裁体制下的国民,绝大多数在自己利益受到侵害前都是资深吃瓜群众,有什么样的国民,就有什么样的政府。这一点长者蛤蛤说的最直白。 View quoted note →
特鲁多-加拿大人的噩梦
特鲁多政府执政以来,常常打着为人民服务的旗号,干着伤害国家和人民的勾当,为了选票,无耻至极,他所做的事表演成分超越了他的承诺。1. 特鲁多政府信奉前苏联的计划经济体制,企图无边界的扩张政府的权力,妄图管控社会的每一个细节,利用宪法的漏洞一次次侵犯人民的自由防线,而立法机构和司法机构的懒惰与不作为给了他得逞的机会。2. 高额赤字和债务:特鲁多政府在应对COVID-19疫情期间实施了大规模的财政刺激计划,导致加拿大的赤字和债务水平大幅增加。这给未来的经济增长和财政稳定带来负面影响,现在这些财政债务都转化为纳税人沉重的税务负担。3. 税收政策:特鲁多政府增加了高收入者的税收负担,以资助社会福利项目和减少不平等。然而,这种做法对企业和创业环境产生严重的负面影响,降低经济活力和投资意愿。例如他声称要解决住房问题,却一而再,再二三的打击房地产持有人和投资者,导致房地产开发活动持续减少,房源供给不足,市场供需严重失衡,导致房价和房租螺旋上升,看不到止境。4. 资源开发限制:特鲁多政府打着环保的旗子,采取了一系列环境保护措施,限制了一些重要的资源开发项目,如石油和天然气行业。这已经导致经济增长受阻,减少投资和就业机会。5.贸易政策:特鲁多政府在与其他国家进行贸易谈判时,缺乏坚定立场和效率,在与美国的谈判中做出了不应该的让步,不利于加拿大的经济利益。加上各种愚蠢政策效应,加拿大经济发展已经严重倒退,并且毫无改善的可能。6. 难民管理失控:特鲁多政府对外宣称为乌克兰难民提供人道主义援助,但是中东,南美,非洲的难民也借机大量涌入,政府没有做好难民的安置和管理工作,他们做的远远不够,导致加拿大治安混乱,盗窃,抢劫,枪杀恶性案件接连发生,人民时刻生活在恐惧之中。 7. 大麻合法化:特鲁多政府声称保护人权,因此将大麻合法化,到处兴建麻屋,大麻更是随处可购,已经染上的更加沉沦,没有染上的也慢慢尝试,很多孩子不幸染上恶习,家长痛不欲生,加拿大空气中都弥漫着大麻的味道。 特鲁多和他的政府已经把加拿大由一个平静和善,互助友爱,美丽发达人人向往的国家变成了毒鬼遍地,社会撕裂,治安恶化,经济衰退的非正常国家,很多人都想逃离这个地方,而这一切,都是加拿大人用选票选出来的伪君子带来的噩梦。
Trudeau government, under the guise of serving the people, has repeatedly engaged in actions that harm the country and its citizens. In pursuit of votes, they have shamelessly surpassed their commitments. Here are some criticisms of Trudeau's economic policies:
1. The Trudeau government adheres to the planned economy system of the former Soviet Union, attempting to expand the government's power without limits and control every detail of society. They have used loopholes in the constitution to repeatedly infringe upon the people's freedom, while the legislative and judicial institutions' laziness and inaction have given them the opportunity to succeed.
2. High deficits and debt: The Trudeau government implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus programs to address the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a significant increase in Canada's deficits and debt levels. This has had a negative impact on future economic growth and fiscal stability, burdening taxpayers with heavy tax obligations.
3. Tax policies: The Trudeau government has increased the tax burden on high-income earners to fund social welfare programs and reduce inequality. However, this approach has severely negative consequences for businesses and the entrepreneurial environment, reducing economic vitality and investment willingness. For example, despite claiming to address the housing issue, Trudeau's policies have repeatedly targeted property owners and investors, leading to a decline in real estate development activities, inadequate housing supply, and a severe market imbalance, causing skyrocketing housing prices and rents with no end in sight.
4. Restrictions on resource development: Under the guise of environmental protection, the Trudeau government has implemented a series of measures that restrict important resource development projects, such as the oil and gas industry. This has already hindered economic growth, reduced investment, and job opportunities.
5. Trade policies: The Trudeau government has been criticized for lacking a firm and efficient stance in trade negotiations with other countries. In negotiations with the United States, they have made unwarranted concessions that are detrimental to Canada's economic interests. Combined with various misguided policy effects, Canada's economic development has significantly regressed, with little chance of improvementand no signs of improvement.
6. Mismanagement of refugees: The Trudeau government claimed to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian refugees, but refugees from the Middle East, South America, and Africa also took advantage of the situation and flooded into the country. The government failed to properly settle and manage the refugees, and their efforts were far from sufficient. This has led to a state of lawlessness in Canada, with incidents of theft, robbery, and gun violence occurring one after another, leaving the people living in constant fear.
7. Legalization of cannabis: The Trudeau government claimed to protect human rights and thus legalized cannabis. Marijuana shops have sprung up everywhere, and marijuana is readily available. Those already addicted have sunk further, and even those who were not previously involved have gradually experimented with it. Many children have unfortunately fallen into this bad habit, causing immense pain for their parents. The smell of marijuana permeates the air in Canada.
Trudeau and his government have turned Canada from a peaceful and friendly country, admired for its mutual assistance and beauty, into an abnormal nation plagued by drugs, social division, deteriorating security, and economic decline. Many people want to escape from this place, and all of this is the nightmare brought about by the pseudo-gentleman elected by the Canadian people.
文革也是一次瘟疫,经历的人,有的终身免疫,有的终身带毒!


大多数中国人一生都不知道什么是文明,自然也无法做一个文明的人,这是人类历史上最大的悲哀,在经历两次世界大战,全球经济,科技大发展的今天,竟然有世界人口四分之一的人是生活在现代社会的古人,不懂什么是自由,法治,私有财产权,也不知道如何保护自己的财产权,从小就被建构了所有的知识体系,没有机会越过长城看一看墙外的世界,手里拿着最先进的智能手机,在网络上发着愚蠢无知的言论,在通往地狱的路上一路欢歌笑语,激情四射,这在五千年人类历史上实属罕见。论诈骗和传销组织管理,中国执政党绝对是集大成者,无人能出其右。
人们被社会主义的谎言迷惑是人性深处对于财富的贪婪,希望不劳而获,嫉妒等无法自控的潜意识所共同作用的必要结果,绝大多数人会掉入这个思维陷阱,这也是集体主义挂羊头卖狗肉还能火近两百年的原因,今天,欧美发达国家由于贸易制裁,俄乌战争,以及大规模财政赤字所苦苦支撑的集体福利导致的严重通货膨胀,政府竟然寄希望于采用最简单的加息,缩表措施来降低通胀,而这些措施更是增加了产业链成本,反而助长了通胀,目的与手段相互掣肘,欧美发达国家央行在赌,他们赌恶性经济危机爆发前,他们可以帮助乌克兰打败俄罗斯,他们可以完成对中国的经济脱钩重建完整的产业链体系,如果做不到,等待他们的将是无尽的黑暗与痛苦,这一切的代价,是拿普通老百姓日益艰难的生活和绝望的人生来承担,政客们早已经赚的盆满钵满。 View quoted note →
人们被社会主义的谎言迷惑是人性深处对于财富的贪婪,希望不劳而获,嫉妒等无法自控的潜意识所共同作用的必要结果,绝大多数人会掉入这个思维陷阱,这也是集体主义挂羊头卖狗肉还能火近两百年的原因,今天,欧美发达国家由于贸易制裁,俄乌战争,以及大规模财政赤字所苦苦支撑的集体福利导致的严重通货膨胀,政府竟然寄希望于采用最简单的加息,缩表措施来降低通胀,而这些措施更是增加了产业链成本,反而助长了通胀,目的与手段相互掣肘,欧美发达国家央行在赌,他们赌恶性经济危机爆发前,他们可以帮助乌克兰打败俄罗斯,他们可以完成对中国的经济脱钩重建完整的产业链体系,如果做不到,等待他们的将是无尽的黑暗与痛苦,这一切的代价,是拿普通老百姓日益艰难的生活和绝望的人生来承担,政客们早已经赚的盆满钵满。 View quoted note →
Give me liberal, or give me death!
My unfortunately brother, what are we waiting for? Now, It’s times we’ve stand up and say no to the empire, we’re people not hostage and we’re not slave! Give back our freedom right! 

习近平和他的团队,一步一步把中国变成水深火热的人间地狱,他们冷血残暴,没有底线,为了手中的权力,毫不犹豫的成为隋炀帝,秦桧等奸人,而中国人胆小怕事,懦弱无能的性格又迎合了这些窃国大盗,真是双向奔赴,最终玉石俱焚。
The United States was once the dream destination for freedom enthusiasts worldwide, thanks to its unparalleled system of checks and balances and a belief in the supremacy of the law. For centuries, countless individuals crossed the seas to establish thriving cities in this untamed land, contributing to highly advanced human civilization. Under the protection of the most liberal system, many talents achieved unprecedented success, leading the development of human civilization for over a century. However, in recent years, the inclusive, benevolent, and wise United States has fallen into increasingly deep confusion. The desire for power among those in authority has led to their degradation, with more and more restrictions on the people's freedom under the guise of protecting collective interests. Bureaucratic institutions have grown increasingly massive and arrogant, while laws and legislation, influenced by the government, sometimes appear absurd and feeble. Trade barriers are rising in the name of national interest, freedom of trade is restricted, and a conscious manipulation of the education system and public opinion is underway, undermining freedom of speech. Like a despotic regime, the population is being dumbed down to achieve the sordid goal of expanding power, even though this expansion grossly violates the spirit of the constitution. The dazzling economic growth data cannot conceal the increasingly difficult living pressures on the people. Seductive industrial policies not only fail to boost economic vitality but also result in a heavy burden of financial debt. Politicians, in pursuit of votes, are willing to sell their souls, making pacts with the devil, betraying God and the people. Shameless acts are mercilessly tearing apart what was once the greatest nation. Influenced by the United States, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, the Nordic countries, and others are facing similar problems. The global situation has undergone profound and severe changes, as evil forces rapidly unite worldwide, sharpening their blades, ready for a decisive battle against civilized nations, attempting to dominate the world. The people of Ukraine, Israel, Afghanistan are sacrificing their lives to defend precarious freedom, while the American people, in their hatred for the wealthy on the opposite block, find themselves sinking into poverty, drug addiction, robbery, and murder under the shadow of class hatred. Decades of miseducation have robbed them of empathy, independent thinking, and judgment. Unprecedentedly, they support terrorists, something unheard of in the over 200-year history of the founding of the United States. Time is running out. In the imminent ultimate confrontation between human civilization and barbarism, it is crucial to open the pages of history, learn from it, face reality, abandon appeasement, set aside class antagonism, and unite with people worldwide who love peace. Engage in the most resolute and ruthless struggle to defend the light of human freedom.
美国曾经是全世界爱好自由的人一生最渴望到达的国度,也是因为美国有着全世界独一无二的权力制衡体系,有着法律至上的信仰,几百年来,无数人们漂洋过海来到这里,在蛮荒之地建立了一个又一个具有高度人类文明的发达城市,很多人才在最自由制度的保护下纷纷取得前所未有的成就,引领了一百多年人类文明的发展,这些事实充分说明了自由对于人类发展的意义。然而,曾经那个包容,博爱,智慧的美国,近年来却陷入了越来越深的迷茫之中,当权者对权力的欲望使他们变得卑鄙,以保护集体利益名义对人民自由的限制越来越多,官僚机构逐渐庞大且傲慢,法律和立法受到政府的影响时而显得荒谬而孱弱,以所谓国家利益不断提高贸易壁垒,限制自由贸易,有意识的引导教育体制和舆论导向,破坏言论自由,像专制政体一样愚化人民,进而达到扩张权力的龌龊目的,尽管这种扩张已经严重违背了宪法精神,亮眼的经济增长数据掩盖不了人民日益艰难的生存压力,风骚的产业政策非但没有提高经济活力,反而造成了沉重的财政债务负担,政客为了选票,不惜出卖灵魂,与撒旦签下契约,背叛了上帝和人民,各种无耻的行为正在无情的撕裂这个曾经最伟大的民族,受美国影响,加拿大,澳大利亚,德国,法国,北欧等国家也出现了同样的问题,世界形势已经发生了非常深刻严峻的变化,邪恶势力犹如幽灵附体一样在全世界范围内快速结盟,磨刀霍霍,随时准备与文明国家展开决战,妄图称霸世界,乌克兰,以色列,阿富汗这些国家的人民正在用生命在捍卫岌岌可危的自由,而美国人民还在痛恨对面街区的富人拥有过多的财富而让自己陷入贫穷,吸毒,抢劫,谋杀在阶级仇恨的阴影下日益猖獗,在长达几十年的愚民教育下让他们丧失了共情能力,独立思考和独立判断能力,对以色列和乌克兰人民受到的无辜残害视而不见,竟然支持恐怖分子,在美国建国200多年历史上从未有过,没有太多时间了,在这场马上到来的人类文明与野蛮的终极对决中,需要翻开历史,以史为鉴,正视现实,放弃绥靖心态,放下阶级对立,与全世界爱好和平的人民团结一致,为捍卫人类自由之光而进行最坚决,最残酷的斗争。