When the fear is running the market, only the brave one will have the courage to buy.

1st rule of Bitcoin: Buy it. 2nd rule of Bitcoin: Hodl it. 3rd rule of Bitcoin: Don’t over leverage it.

Risk assets react poorly to the risk of weaken job market.

Fed has been consistent and transparent on their rate policy. 25 bbp cut is most likely.

There is overwhelming support and consensus on soft landing. The Fed wants it so do the market. However, the unemployment data is telling a different story.

Bitcoin price action is signaling risk-off. Stock market should take a notice.

Bloomberg.com

Bitcoin Taking Cue From Stocks Heading Into Pivotal US Jobs Data

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies turned sharply lower, erasing earlier gains, as digital assets got swept up in a volatile trading session across...

Allen Litchtman, the man who successfully predicted the U.S. presidential election in the past 40 years, is predicting Kamala Harris will win. If he placed his bet on his prediction each time, he would turn 1 dollars into 1024 dollars. That’s 102400% of compounding return.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has ZERO outflow yesterday.

Buffett’s cash pile is now $300 billion. To put that in comparison, that’s 1/3 of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

"We will make America the world capital of crypto and Bitcoin." – Donald Trump

The potential black swan for Bitcoin and risk assets is the market has over underestimated the trend in unemployment rate.

The equity market has top for now and it’s just starting to go through a correction sparked by the unemployment rate and the weaker economy. The AI sector is cooling off for now until Nvidia’s BlackWell release in Q4. Whether or not we have entered a recession is unknown, but any bad economy data will continue to drive the market lower. The market can still have a strong rally but it will depends on strong overriding on the current trend in the unemployment data. The good news is the Fed will cut rate and release liquidity to the market but the effect will not immediately affect the market price action. It tends to kick a month or two before the market bottoms. I could be wrong and I am wrong often.

Labor market is showing signs of weakness. It will shake investors’ confidence in the market. View quoted note →

Bitcoiners know more about investing than most tradfi bros just based on the fact that we own most of our wealth in Bitcoin.

🏡🌲

Bitcoin is leading the equity market in a potentially volatile period. BTC is down 20% from ATH while S&P only down 2% from ATH, meaning there is more downside to go if equity follows BTC. Be responsibly long.

I have been unsuccessfully shilling Nostr to my normie friends. They all use Insta and obviously don’t own bitcoin. How can I do better?

If you run a family office, own Bitcoin, and use Nostr, I want to follow you.

@jack's push for decentralization is honorable. He has done things that is very hard for most tech CEO. View quoted note →

The fact that Bitcoin hasn’t reached an all-time high in terms of gold reflects that broader market participants view Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than risk-off. This perception is likely to change in the foreseeable future, but not in the near term.