SatoshiSamurai's avatar
SatoshiSamurai
satoshisamurai@nostr.hushvault.ie
npub14tgr...d5f6
Bitcoiner writer thinker Self Sovereign Nostr Maxi Verifier of Nip05 Stacker of Sats. ♾️/21 🔑 🔑 🔑 Jan 2023
Investing directly in Bitcoin can be complex, requiring technical knowledge to manage a digital wallet and securely store private keys. However, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a more accessible way for investors, especially institutions, to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without the challenges of direct ownership. What are Bitcoin ETFs? Bitcoin ETFs are investment vehicles that track the price of Bitcoin, allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency's price movements without actually owning it directly. While Bitcoin itself trades on crypto exchanges, Bitcoin ETFs trade on traditional stock exchanges, combining features of mutual funds, stocks and bonds. There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin Futures ETFs Spot Bitcoin ETFs Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to the current market price ("spot price") of Bitcoin. They hold actual Bitcoin as the underlying asset, not derivatives. How Spot Bitcoin ETFs Work The ETF issuer purchases Bitcoin from holders or exchanges and stores it securely in a digital wallet. Shares of the ETF are then issued, with each share representing a certain amount of Bitcoin held. The ETF share price is designed to track the current Bitcoin market price. Market makers help maintain liquidity by constantly offering to buy and sell ETF shares. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs are available in only 8 countries including Canada, Germany, Brazil and Australia. The U.S. has not yet approved any spot Bitcoin ETFs due to investor protection and market manipulation concerns.1 Bitcoin Futures ETFs Unlike spot ETFs, Bitcoin futures ETFs do not hold actual Bitcoin. Instead, they use derivatives like futures contracts to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements. How Bitcoin Futures ETFs Work Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a set price on a future date. Investors essentially bet on whether Bitcoin's future price will be higher or lower than the current price. These contracts trade on exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The U.S. SEC has approved several Bitcoin futures ETFs, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO). Futures-based Bitcoin ETFs also exist in Canada and Hong Kong.1 Spot vs Futures Bitcoin ETFs The key differences between spot and futures Bitcoin ETFs are: Spot ETFs hold actual Bitcoin, while futures ETFs hold derivatives contracts Spot ETFs directly track Bitcoin's current price, while futures ETFs track the price indirectly Spot ETFs require secure custody of Bitcoin, while futures ETFs do not. Impact on Bitcoin's Price Bitcoin ETFs, especially spot ETFs, could significantly impact Bitcoin's price by: Increasing demand from new investors who prefer ETFs over direct Bitcoin ownership Providing a stamp of legitimacy and boosting confidence in Bitcoin Enabling more active trading of Bitcoin exposure by institutions and speculators Conclusion The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly spot ETFs, represents a major development in making Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors. By enabling regulated Bitcoin investment without the complexities of direct ownership, ETFs could improve market liquidity and accelerate institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024: Many experts believe Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in 2024, potentially surpassing $100,000 The average peak price prediction across sources is around $87,875 The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 is expected to be a major catalyst, historically preceding record-breaking rallies If Bitcoin repeats past trends, it could reach $148,000 by the first half of 2025 Increased institutional demand and the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are also seen as key drivers pushing prices higher However, some warn of a potential pre-halving rally followed by a sharp correction More bullish predictions see Bitcoin reaching as high as $200,000 in 2024 One analyst believes an imminent supply shock due to macro events and diminishing Grayscale supply could propel Bitcoin to $500,000 by Q4 2025 Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025: Forecasts for 2025 have a wider range. The average prediction sees Bitcoin climbing to $122,688 in 2025 However, some expect a major correction after the 2024 peak. One prediction sees Bitcoin falling significantly from 2024 highs, potentially dropping over 50% by mid-2025 before settling in a range of $58,500 to $68,000 by year-end, indicating a shift to a bearish trend In contrast, another forecast estimates Bitcoin could reach $105,743 in the first half of 2025 before closing the year around $90,002, up 113% from March 2024 prices
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) exploring Bitcoin for diversification: GPIF Overview GPIF is the world's largest pension fund with $1.5 trillion in assets under management as of December 2023. Its current portfolio includes domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, and alternative assets like infrastructure and real estate. Exploring New Investment Options GPIF is exploring diversifying its portfolio beyond traditional holdings by considering assets like Bitcoin, gold, forests, and farmland. This move signals a potential shift towards more unconventional investments for the pension fund. GPIF aims to gather information on how other pension funds incorporate such assets and their practical investment experiences. Fact-Finding Mission GPIF clarified that this is a preliminary step to explore new investment options. Any expansion of investment targets will depend on the findings and subsequent research from this initiative. The fund has not made any firm commitments to invest in Bitcoin or other new asset classes yet. Portfolio Diversification Efforts In recent years, GPIF has focused on enhancing operational sophistication and diversifying its portfolio. Since 2022, it has handpicked 56 active funds spanning North American, developed countries, and Japanese stocks. Considering Bitcoin could further propel GPIF's diversification efforts if it decides to invest in the future.
So where does this demand come from? Is it all institutions, family offices and corporations? Based on the historical price data and adoption trends, emerging markets are likely to play a crucial role in driving Bitcoin's mainstream adoption and market share growth over the next decade, potentially even overshadowing institutional adoption in developed economies. Africa Many African nations suffer from high inflation, capital controls, and underdeveloped financial systems. Bitcoin provides an alternative store of value and payment rail. Countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya are already seeing growing cryptocurrency adoption. Latin America Similar economic challenges like inflation and lack of banking access make cryptocurrencies attractive in Latin America. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico could drive significant Bitcoin adoption as remittances and a savings vehicle. Southeast Asia With large unbanked populations and remittance corridors, Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia represent fertile ground for Bitcoin adoption, especially through mobile payments. India Despite recent regulatory hurdles, India's huge population, remittance flows, and tech-savvy youth make it a market with immense potential for Bitcoin and crypto adoption in the long run. Eastern Europe Countries in Eastern Europe like Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia have shown rising cryptocurrency usage, driven by factors like economic instability and capital controls. Middle East Oil-rich nations like the UAE are positioning themselves as crypto hubs, while economic challenges in places like Iran and Turkey could spur grassroots Bitcoin adoption as a censorship-resistant asset. Emerging markets plagued by issues like inflation, currency devaluation, capital controls, and lack of financial access are prime candidates for leapfrogging into Bitcoin and crypto adoption over this decade. However, regulatory clarity and easy-to-use services will be key to driving mainstream uptake in these markets.
what is the likely price of bitcoin in the period 2028 to 2033: Here are my observations and predictions for Bitcoin's adoption rate and probable price range over the second half of the next decade (2028-2033): Adoption Signals The price charts show Bitcoin has experienced several major boom and bust cycles driven by speculation and changing narratives around its adoption. However, some key signals point to increasing real-world adoption: Institutional investment from funds, corporations and payment companies entering the space Retail adoption through easy-to-use apps and services Emerging use cases like remittances, e-commerce, and decentralized finance (DeFi) Improving regulatory clarity in major economies Scaling solutions like Lightning Network enhancing Bitcoin's usability 2028-2030 Adoption Predictions Adoption Rate in 2028: 15-25% of the global population Adoption Rate in 2030: 25-40% of the global population By 2028-2030, I expect Bitcoin to have achieved a degree of mainstream adoption, being used for various financial services by a sizable minority of the global population. Drivers could include: More institutional products, corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin Widespread cheap/fast payment rails and remittance corridors Retail investment demand through simple apps and services Emerging markets leapfrogging traditional finance However, volatility, regulatory hurdles and competition from other crypto assets may limit full mainstream adoption in this period. 2031-2033 Adoption Predictions Adoption Rate in 2033: 40-60% of the global population Towards the early 2030s, I predict Bitcoin could cross into majority global adoption, if current trends continue. This could be driven by: Bitcoin establishing itself as a legitimate heavy weight asset class and store of value User-friendly DeFi services building on Bitcoin bringing crypto to the masses Improving scalability, privacy and regulatory integration Broader economic drivers like inflation and loss of trust in fiat currencies. Of course, this is just a potential scenario. So what does this mean for price? 2028 Price Prediction: $400,000 - $800,000 By 2028, if Bitcoin achieves 15-25% global adoption as a mainstream financial asset and payment rail, its price could realistically reach the $400,000 to $800,000 range. This accounts for Bitcoin's market cap growing to several trillion dollars as institutional and retail investment continues pouring in. 2030 Price Prediction: $800,000 - $1,600,000 With an projected adoption rate of 25-40% by 2030, Bitcoin's price could potentially double from 2028 levels to between $800,000 and $1.6 million per BTC. This assumes Bitcoin cements itself as a legitimate store-of-value and medium-of-exchange globally. 2033 Price Prediction: $1.5 million - $3 million If Bitcoin realizes majority global adoption of 40-60% by 2033, driven by user-friendly DeFi services and economic factors, its price could reach $1.5 million to $3 million per coin. This valuation accounts for Bitcoin potentially capturing over 10% of the global money supply and investment markets.
I'm noticing some trends emerge in Crypto trading data of late. - Increasing trend of using deep learning methods like Long short term memory networks for price prediction. - Growing interest in sentiment analysis and social media data to predict price movements. This can cause feedback loops. - Dex's are gaining in popularity. - Machine learning enabling intelligent decentralised apps for trading. - Crypto market as a whole is becoming more linked to financial market. This brings in the sharks and extra regulations. Just more reasons this hodl hard friends.
Lol, Coinbase has shit the bed again... Something's will never change.
Life is a pattern of immense complexity, the energy of the entire universe. Life, like Bitcoin (BTC), exhibits immense complexity and is intricately connected to broader systems, echoing Bitcoin's decentralized nature and its interdependence with the global financial landscape. Just as life reflects the energy of the entire universe, Bitcoin's value and network dynamics reflect the collective actions and beliefs of its users across the globe, embodying a complex and interconnected digital ecosystem. Food for thought!
ETFs, the wolves in sheep's clothing for Bitcoin. While they promise accessibility and exposure, they come with a dark side: centralization risk. As BTC ETFs lure in more investors, they concentrate ownership, eroding the very foundation of decentralization that Bitcoin stands for. It's a dangerous game where the few control the fate of the many.
Gratitude is a universal language that transcends borders and cultures. It's a powerful emotion, one that can change the world, one person at a time. While words are undoubtedly a means to convey our gratitude, they are just the tip of the iceberg. The depth of our appreciation is truly reflected in our outward appearance and our ability to regulate our emotions. We've all heard the saying, "Actions speak louder than words." Nowhere is this truer than in the realm of gratitude. Outward appearance is like a canvas on which we paint the sincerity of our thankfulness. Imagine a genuine smile, one that radiates warmth and kindness. It's like a beam of sunshine breaking through the clouds on a gloomy day. A smile is a universal symbol of happiness and contentment. When you offer a sincere smile to someone, you're not just conveying your appreciation; you're sharing a moment of joy with them. Kind words are another brushstroke on the canvas of gratitude. A simple "thank you" can mean the world to someone who has helped or supported you. When you express your gratitude verbally, you're acknowledging the goodness in others. It's a way of saying, "I see the kindness in you, and I'm grateful for it." Small acts of kindness are perhaps the most eloquent expressions of gratitude. When you go out of your way to help someone who has helped you, you're not only repaying a debt but also creating a ripple of goodwill. These acts can be as simple as holding the door for someone, making a cup of tea for a colleague, or sending a handwritten thank-you note. Small gestures often have the most significant impact, conveying deep appreciation through actions. Our outward appearance is a reflection of our inner state, and when we express gratitude, it can be a truly beautiful sight. It's a visual language that needs no translation, and it speaks volumes about our character and our ability to recognize the goodness in others. This seems to me to be more important now than ever before. We’re entering a stage in our development where governments exterminating a whole population has become ok again because of the actions of a tiny minority of the population. May these times pass swiftly.
The "Show Up Rule": Embrace Life and Maximize the Present Moment In our fast-paced lives filled with distractions and relentless schedules, the "Show Up Rule" serves as a profound reminder to actively engage with life, emphasizing the importance of presence and the full utilization of each moment. This rule compels us to seize the day and make the most of it now by showing up, committing to the present, and embracing every opportunity that crosses our path. Let's explore the essence of the "Show Up Rule" and its alignment with principles like the 80/20 rule and "Deep Work." Understanding the "Show Up Rule" At its core, the "Show Up Rule" is about showing up for your life. It is the decision to be fully present and engaged in the experiences that unfold before you. This rule is a call to action, encouraging us to live in the present moment rather than dwelling on past regrets or anxiously anticipating an uncertain future. The concept is simple yet transformative: No matter how you feel or what challenges you face, you must get up, dress up, and show up for life. It means actively participating in your own journey, taking ownership of your actions, and recognizing that every moment is an opportunity. It is an embodiment of resilience, a commitment to living life to the fullest, and a rejection of the passive role of an observer or auditor. The 80/20 Rule: Maximizing Impact The "Show Up Rule" resonates with the renowned 80/20 rule, often referred to as the Pareto Principle. This principle posits that roughly 80% of outcomes result from 20% of causes. Applied to life, it underscores the significance of a few key actions and decisions in shaping our experiences and achievements. When you consistently show up and make the most of your present moments, you are actively contributing to that vital 20% of causes that lead to meaningful and positive outcomes. The principle reinforces the idea that we should focus on what truly matters, channeling our time and energy into areas of life that bring fulfillment and progress. "Deep Work": Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World Author Cal Newport's book, "Deep Work," offers guidelines for achieving focused success in a world filled with distractions. Newport's principles dovetail with the "Show Up Rule" by emphasizing the importance of unwavering concentration and commitment. In a world replete with interruptions and multitasking, the "Show Up Rule" and deep work both encourage a state of deep focus and presence. This entails actively engaging with the work or experiences that genuinely matter, ensuring that every moment is optimized for productivity and creativity. By embracing the "Show Up Rule" and practicing deep work, you take charge of your life, fostering intentionality, and purpose in your actions. You break free from the chaos of distraction and unlock the power of focused effort and presence. Life is not a passive endeavor. The "Show Up Rule" calls us to actively participate in each moment, acknowledging the significance of the present and its potential for growth and fulfillment. By adhering to this rule and applying principles like the 80/20 rule and deep work, you gain the capacity to seize every opportunity and focus on what genuinely matters, eliminating room for regrets. So, let's remember: The "Show Up Rule" is your guide to not auditing life but actively showing up and making the most of it now
Factors most likely to lead to complete adoption of Bitcoin globally as a percentage. Thoughts?? Increased Institutional Adoption: 20% Global Economic Uncertainty: 15% Massive Retail Adoption: 10% Positive Regulatory Environment: 10% Technological Advancements: 15% Halving Events: 15% Global Events and Crises: 5% Favorable Market Sentiment: 5% Scarcity and Limited Supply: 2% TechAdoption Beyond Store of Value (AI): 3%
In the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has long held the mantle of being the pioneer and leader. As Bitcoin adoption continues to surge, it’s increasingly clear that the biggest challenge lies on the fiat side of the equation. However, amidst these hurdles, there’s a beacon of hope—a circular Bitcoin economy may be on the horizon. The bright side of this unfolding narrative is that as Bitcoin gains more mainstream acceptance, a circular economy centered around Bitcoin itself could develop. This would effectively reduce the need for interaction with traditional fiat currencies. The implications of such a shift are profound. In this emerging landscape, the way people acquire and use Bitcoin would undergo a significant transformation. Instead of buying Bitcoin through traditional means, most individuals would either earn it or accept it in exchange for goods and services. The key to enabling this transition lies in self-sovereign software stacks, with platforms like BTCPayServer at the forefront of facilitating peer-to-peer Bitcoin transactions. Earning Bitcoin becomes a cornerstone of this circular economy. People would engage in various activities, from providing services to selling products, with Bitcoin as the primary mode of payment. This approach not only aligns with the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency but also empowers individuals to actively participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Crucially, the shift towards a circular Bitcoin economy is not an overnight transformation. It will take time, effort, and a coordinated push from the cryptocurrency community to make this vision a reality. One key consideration in this journey is the balance between user privacy and maintaining an auditable supply. Privacy is paramount, and users must be able to transact with Bitcoin discreetly, safeguarding their financial autonomy. However, the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain should not be compromised in the process. Striking this delicate balance is essential to ensure the long-term viability and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin network.
In the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has long held the mantle of being the pioneer and leader. As Bitcoin adoption continues to surge, it’s increasingly clear that the biggest challenge lies on the fiat side of the equation. However, amidst these hurdles, there’s a beacon of hope—a circular Bitcoin economy may be on the horizon. The bright side of this unfolding narrative is that as Bitcoin gains more mainstream acceptance, a circular economy centered around Bitcoin itself could develop. This would effectively reduce the need for interaction with traditional fiat currencies. The implications of such a shift are profound. In this emerging landscape, the way people acquire and use Bitcoin would undergo a significant transformation. Instead of buying Bitcoin through traditional means, most individuals would either earn it or accept it in exchange for goods and services. The key to enabling this transition lies in self-sovereign software stacks, with platforms like BTCPayServer at the forefront of facilitating peer-to-peer Bitcoin transactions. Earning Bitcoin becomes a cornerstone of this circular economy. People would engage in various activities, from providing services to selling products, with Bitcoin as the primary mode of payment. This approach not only aligns with the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency but also empowers individuals to actively participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Crucially, the shift towards a circular Bitcoin economy is not an overnight transformation. It will take time, effort, and a coordinated push from the cryptocurrency community to make this vision a reality. One key consideration in this journey is the balance between user privacy and maintaining an auditable supply. Privacy is paramount, and users must be able to transact with Bitcoin discreetly, safeguarding their financial autonomy. However, the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain should not be compromised in the process. Striking this delicate balance is essential to ensure the long-term viability and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin network.