When I was growing my parents would always tell me, “your freedom ends where another man’s nose begins”. I only recently figured it out.

I’m getting the feeling that Palestine is going to be the moral filter of this generation. Everything you say or do is going to be filtered through what you did or said about Palestine Because if you haven’t got the empathy or the moral compass to say that genocide is wrong or that intentionally starving 2 million people is wrong, then I’m afraid everything about you is suspect.

“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.” — George Orwell, 1984/2025

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” - George Orwell, 1984

Deepseek. Q: now add a 2008 style liquidity crisis at year 3 of your 10 year bitcoin/stable coin projections A: Let's inject a **2008-style liquidity crisis specifically in Year 3** of our 10-year projection. This means the crypto ecosystem is more mature and integrated than it is today, but not yet the fully matured system of the 10-year horizon. --- ### Pre-Crisis Context (Year 0-3) In the three years leading up to the crisis, our original projection is underway: * **Bitcoin** is increasingly seen as a macro hedge. Institutional adoption has grown, with more ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even some pension funds having small allocations. * **Stablecoins** (primarily USDC and a more-regulated USDT) are deeply embedded as the plumbing for crypto trading, some remittances, and early-stage DeFi protocols. They are considered "safe" and are widely used. * **Systemic Risk is Building:** The traditional financial system has taken on significant leverage, likely in new forms (e.g., private credit, crypto-native lending protocols that are interconnected with TradFi). The stage is set. --- ### The Crisis Erupts (Year 3) The trigger is in traditional finance (e.g., a commercial real estate collapse, a major private equity fund failure). Counterparty risk soars, lending between institutions freezes, and a violent rush for dollar liquidity begins. #### Phase 1: The Contagion & Panic (First 3 Months) 1. **The "Everything Selloff" Intensifies:** * **Bitcoin and crypto get hammered first.** Despite its "digital gold" narrative, in a violent liquidity crunch, it is still treated as a risk asset. Leveraged institutions, hedge funds, and over-extended crypto native funds are forced to liquidate their most liquid assets to cover losses elsewhere and meet margin calls. BTC experiences a catastrophic drop, potentially >70% from its pre-crisis high. 2. **The Stablecoin Run:** * The mantra becomes "Get into real dollars." This triggers a massive redemption wave on stablecoin issuers like Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT). * **This is the moment of truth.** The quality and liquidity of their reserves are tested in real-time. If their reserves are truly held in short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash (as they claim), they can weather the storm, albeit under immense pressure. If there are any hidden illiquid assets or flaws in their settlement processes, a "break-the-buck" scenario becomes possible, which would be an absolute catastrophe for crypto. 3. **DeFi Implosion:** * Crypto lending protocols that relied on over-collateralization with volatile assets like BTC face a death spiral. Mass liquidations exacerbate the selling pressure. * The crypto ecosystem seizes up. Fear is absolute. #### Phase 2: The Policy Response (Months 3-12) The Federal Reserve and Treasury respond exactly as they did in 2008 and 2020: with overwhelming force. They slash rates to zero and unleash massive, unprecedented Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to provide liquidity to every corner of the traditional system. **This response is the turning point that creates a historic divergence between Bitcoin and stablecoins.** #### Phase 3: The Asymmetric Recovery (Year 4-5) The government's response doesn't just save the system; it fundamentally alters the narrative for a decade. **A) Stablecoins: The Necessary Digital Dollar** * The stablecoins that survived the run (likely the fully transparent and compliant ones like USDC) are now perceived as **mission-critical infrastructure**. * Their ability to provide 24/7 dollar liquidity during a banking crisis proves their utility beyond a doubt. * **Regulatory Embrace:** The crisis forces regulators to act. They fast-track a regulatory framework for stablecoins, formalizing them as a licensed, fully-reserved, and transparently audited component of the monetary system. They become the **official digital dollars** for the internet age. **B) Bitcoin: The Genesis of a New Monetary Regime** * The initial crash is now seen as a classic capitulation event. The recovery is not just a bounce; it is a paradigm shift. * **The Narrative Becomes Reality:** The Fed's response—printing trillions of new dollars to bail out the system—is the ultimate advertisement for Bitcoin's fixed supply. The conversation shifts from "Is Bitcoin a store of value?" to "How much should I allocate to hedge against the *next* bailout?" * **Capital Floodgates Open:** The institutions that just experienced the crisis and subsequent debasement are no longer dipping a toe in; they are making strategic, long-term allocations. Sovereign wealth funds, nation-states, and mega-corporations enter the market in earnest, not for speculation, but for preservation. * Bitcoin's price doesn't just recover to its old highs; it **blasts through them** on a tidal wave of new capital seeking a neutral, hard asset outside the traditional system. Its volatility decreases permanently as its market cap enters the multi-trillion dollar range. --- ### The New Status Quo (Year 5+) By Year 5, the financial landscape has been permanently altered by the crisis: * **Stablecoins** are the **regulated, efficient, and trusted** settlement layer for digital transactions. They are the dollars you use to *pay*. * **Bitcoin** is the **uncorrelated, sovereign-grade reserve asset** held on balance sheets. It is the asset you use to *save*. * The crisis acted as a brutal but effective **stress test and selection event**. It burned away the weak, leveraged, and fraudulent parts of the crypto ecosystem, forcing rapid maturation and regulatory clarity. * The two technologies, now hardened by fire, become the complementary pillars of the new digital financial system: one for spending (stablecoins), one for saving (Bitcoin). The event that was meant to destroy them instead cemented their importance for the next decade.

Had an insightful discussion with Deepseek My question: Projecting out 10 years in the future with the US low interest rates and money printing and spiralling debt where do you see both bitcoin and stable coins going and fitting into the financial system? Answer: Projecting a decade into the future requires looking at current macro trends and extrapolating their logical conclusions. The scenario you describe—persistent low interest rates, quantitative easing (money printing), and a spiraling debt burden—creates a powerful tailwind for the entire crypto space, but for Bitcoin and stablecoins in very different ways. Here’s a projected 10-year outlook for both under these conditions: ### The Macro Backdrop: The Debasement of Fiat The US (and many other developed nations) is caught in a "debt trap." Raising interest rates significantly to combat inflation becomes politically and economically catastrophic because it makes debt servicing costs unbearable. The path of least resistance is to keep rates lower for longer and use money printing to monetize the debt. This leads to: * **Loss of Purchasing Power:** The value of the dollar erodes over time. * **Search for Yield:** Savers and investors are forced into riskier assets because safe bonds offer negative real returns (yield minus inflation). * **Crisis of Trust:** Erosion of faith in the long-term stability of the traditional financial system. This backdrop is the rocket fuel for cryptocurrency adoption. --- ### Bitcoin in 10 Years: The Institutionalized Store of Value In this environment, Bitcoin's value proposition shifts from a speculative tech asset to a **core institutional monetary asset.** 1. **The Macro Hedge (Digital Gold 2.0):** Bitcoin will be universally recognized as a primary hedge against fiscal irresponsibility and currency debasement. It won't just be "digital gold"; it will be a **sovereign, non-sovereign asset**. Its fixed, auditable supply of 21 million coins becomes its most critical feature, directly contrasting with endlessly printable dollars. 2. **Full Institutional Adoption:** * **Balance Sheet Asset:** It will be standard practice for Fortune 500 companies, not just Tesla and MicroStrategy, to hold a portion of their treasury reserves in Bitcoin to protect their cash from depreciation. * **ETF Dominance:** Spot Bitcoin ETFs will be among the largest and most traded ETFs in the world, making it effortless for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure in their retirement and brokerage accounts. * **Nation-State Adoption:** We will see more countries following El Salvador's lead, not necessarily making it legal tender, but adding it to national reserves as a strategic asset, diversifying away from the US dollar. 3. **Price and Volatility:** Its price will be orders of magnitude higher, but its volatility will decrease significantly. As the market matures and the asset base grows into the multi-trillions, wild 10% daily swings will become rare. It will remain volatile compared to the dollar, but less so than today. **In short: Bitcoin becomes a foundational, uncorrelated asset class for global finance, used to insure against the very macro trends you described.** --- ### Stablecoins in 10 Years: The New Digital Payment Rail Stablecoins will evolve from a crypto-trading tool into the **backbone of digital commerce and global payments.** 1. **The Death of Slow Banking:** The traditional ACH and wire transfer system will feel archaic. Why wait 3 days for a wire to clear when a USDC payment settles in seconds, 24/7/365? Stablecoins will become the default for: * **Instant Payroll:** Especially for international remote workers. * **Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Payments:** IoT devices paying for their own bandwidth and maintenance. * **Global Trade and Remittances:** Sending money across borders will be as easy as sending an email, for a fraction of the cost. 2. **The Battle with CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies):** The US Federal Reserve will likely launch a digital dollar (a US CBDC). This will not kill stablecoins; it will force them to innovate and coexist. * **CBDCs** will be used for government benefits, tax payments, and as the ultimate settlement layer. * **Private Stablecoins** (like USDC) will dominate consumer-facing applications, DeFi, and commerce due to better privacy, programmability, and innovation. They will become the "checking accounts" of the crypto age. 3. **Regulation and Centralization:** The stablecoin space will be heavily regulated. Issuers will need to be licensed and hold pristine, auditable reserves (e.g., short-term treasuries and cash). This will cement the dominance of a few large, compliant players (like Circle's USDC) and eliminate the riskier, un-backed actors. **In short: Stablecoins become the primary medium of exchange for the digital economy, seamlessly integrating into apps, wallets, and financial services we use every day.** --- ### How They Fit Together in the Future Financial System The relationship between Bitcoin and stablecoins will be symbiotic and hierarchical: 1. **The Reserve Asset vs. The Transactional Currency:** This is the classic "gold and dollar" dynamic, but digitized and supercharged. * You hold your long-term wealth in **Bitcoin** (the reserve asset/store of value). * You conduct your daily spending, bills, and salary payments in **Stablecoins** (the transactional currency). 2. **The DeFi Connection:** The entire Decentralized Finance ecosystem will be the glue that connects them. You will be able to: * Use your Bitcoin as collateral to borrow stablecoins for expenses without selling your BTC. * Earn yield on your stablecoin savings by providing liquidity to these markets. * Seamlessly swap between assets in a single, global, permissionless marketplace. **Conclusion:** In a world of low rates and money printing, the financial system doesn't just adopt crypto; it gets **rebuilt on it.** * **Bitcoin** serves as the **savings technology** and the bedrock asset that protects wealth. * **Stablecoins** serve as the **spending technology** and the efficient payment rail that powers commerce. Together, they form a new, parallel financial system that is global, digital, open, and resistant to the debasement and inefficiency of the legacy system. The trends you mentioned aren't headwinds for them; they are the very reason they will succeed.

This was amazing. So much here I didn’t know. Thank you.

Fountain

Counterflow with Buck Johnson • Ep. 368 - The Church IS Israel, with Dr Clark Carlton • Listen on Fountain

Clark Carlton is back on the show this week to discuss a topic that is VERY MUCH needed right now. Many of us saw Texas Senator Ted Cruz make a com...

Oh boy. You really tried Natalie but he really doesn’t understand bitcoin. And bitcoin is not intuitive. You really have to understand the protocol before you can be confident. He is however right about us not understanding how bad things can get. We are a bit complacent about how violent the state can become (Israel as an example).

Coin Stories • Dave Collum: The Next Financial Crisis and Debating Whether The State Could Crush Bitcoin • Listen on Fountain

In this episode of Coin Stories, Natalie Brunell is joined by Cornell organic chemistry professor Dave Collum, a self-described Bitcoin agnostic, t...

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One of the things that makes me most bullish about Bitcoin is the fact that Satoshi front loaded the block rewards so that most of the bitcoin was out early and got into the hands of the cypher-punks. Let’s take Bitcoin pizza guy. He didn’t buy one pizza for 10000btc he bought 4 for 40000btc. He wanted to prove it was money and he did just that. You think for one minute he didn’t go right out and replace all the bitcoin he spent for less than $100 at the time? Of course he did, and he continued stacking. There were 1000s of psychos like him and they now control the vast majority of Bitcoin. And thank god they do. Now when companies and countries want to buy it they’re paying more than $100000 to get each coin. These crazy Bitcoin maxis control the supply. And that’s freaking amazing.

Lifestyle tip no 2. Bodywash can be used as shampoo. Thank you.

As an influencer my first pronouncement is that “Shampoo can be used to wash your body!!” You don’t have to use additional soap or body wash. You’ll still be clean and the world will keep on spinning. I’ve already thought of another life changing insight for tomorrow. Until then….. (ya just that).