This is in our future. At some point, we’ll know foreign governments and large international companies are buying bitcoin because the price will rise while the US ETFs are being drained. 
techfeudalist
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I just realized that we can use the ETF flows to measure big global capital accumulation.
The ETFs will be used by retail and small capital pools but I highly doubt governments and large institutions around the world will trust the US with their bitcoin.
At some point, the number of bitcoin in the ETFs will slow or even start to drain out…with the price rising.
That’s the signal that these large global capital pools around the world are now in accumulation mode.
It’s fun to watch out for the milestones on our path.
You can see that we’re much farther ahead this cycle. Usually we don’t approach the ATH until we’ll after the halving.
We’re climbing the retail S-curve now. Price will go higher than we expect. Volatility will increase. Likely the four year cycle is dead. Don’t sell and expect you’ll get a long bear to buy back in. View quoted note →
Bitcoin is in track to make history by making a new ATH before this halving.
I’m pretty convinced that the prior peak was cut short by FTX’s sales of paper bitcoin that didn’t exist.
I suspect there will be a lot of history made this cycle.
I’m thinking this bull run will look a lot like 2013 with at least two peaks. We will get a fast ascent to ~$150k and then drop back maybe 50%. Then, after a relatively short stabilization period (say, six months), the price will run to something like $500k or beyond.
The price will go higher than we think but ultimately I think the bull run will be over when we, the plebs, say it is. Supply will remain tight until our coins (held by strong hands) start flooding the market.
I suspect that the four year cycle will be over this epoch. We will now have faster cycles with greater volatility. The phase of diminishing returns will end as we start climbing the S-curve.
Those who think the four year cycle will play out in the same way could get rekt. They might think they can sell and buy back in. It’s not going to be that predictable.
🤣 
On days like this I sometimes get a message from friends or family thanking me for helping them understand bitcoin. I read the awful economic news and so many people are suffering. It feels good to be able to help people.
I continue to see how bitcoin is the great reset. Big Wall Street BSDs, or those who have benefited from the current system usually don’t “get” bitcoin. Their big egos won’t let them do the work to understand.
It’s interesting how little the halving matters this year. Dropping from 900 or 450 bitcoin a day pales to the thousands of bitcoin a day being sucked up by the ETFs.
A bigger factor to price (than the halving) might be the long bear market and the fact that most coins are now in strong hodlr hands. There will need to be a big jump in price to entice some of these people to sell.
Every time someone says I should sell some I’m reminded that everything else is a shitcoin and why would I sell the best asset for something lesser?
Somebody once asked me whether regulators were scared that bitcoin would contribute to inflation.
Without thinking too deeply about it, I said no. Now I think my answer may be incorrect. Perhaps it’s possible that bitcoin, especially in the form of an ETF, could contribute to inflation.
As we know, an increase in the money supply drives inflation. Banks create base money out of thin air when they issue loans.
Will the ETF drive more loans and therefore more base money? Now I think it might.
Shares of an ETF might be margin-eligible making it easy to borrow money with the shares as collateral.
MicroStrategy has been borrowing money to buy bitcoin and short the dollar. The ETF might make this strategy accessible to almost everyone.
These new loans might increase base money and inflation, creating a reflexive feedback loop. As the price of bitcoin rises, more people will borrow money on margin, creating more inflation and a higher bitcoin price.
Could the ETF be the Trojan horse that consumes the financial system from the inside? 🤔