Probability fact many struggle to reason with:
If someone says there's a 99.999% chance something will happen, and then it doesn't happen - that person may have been exactly right about the probability.
You can't look at a single poll.
You can't look at a single market.
You can't look at a single event.
Forecasting ability must be measured across a collection of events. See Brier scores.
Today the Australian government is announcing that teenagers under 16 will be banned from social media.
This implies people over the age of 16 will need to link their government identification to every social media account.
The announcement coincides with the preparation of a federal Misinformation Bill - compelling platforms to crack down on what our "eSafety" commissioner deems disinformation.
For Australians, Nostr is an idea whose time has come.
What's the deal with Claude subscription?
Is it still easy to hit the usage limit?
ppq.ai gets expensive with large code calls.
Thinking of trying Cursor IDE to see what it thinks about the repos.