Alpine

Nobody here likes George Soros, but he went from zero to $20B+ by trading the market and what he said about reflexivity very much applies to bitcoin. Sometimes, you have to learn from your enemies. “Reflexivity is, in effect, a two-way feedback mechanism in which reality helps shape the participants’ thinking and the participants’ thinking helps shape reality in an unending process in which thinking and reality may come to approach each other but can never become identical.”

“Reverse widow maker” portfolio as we return to sound money over the next 20 years: 60% BTC 20% Gold 20% Global Equities Set it and forget it. Any questions?

Bitcoin looking ready this morning.

At its core, $MSTR is a carry trade: borrow in fiat, allocate to BTC. If Bitcoin compounds >10% annually, the strategy will work well. Their balance sheet is incredibly strong. So unlike many carry trades of the past, this one won’t come undone. It’s a reasonable long-term hold unless you think bitcoin is going away.

How many people alive today have fully read “The Theory of Money and Credit” by Ludwig von Mises? ChatGPT estimates just 6,000–8,000, or about 0.0001% of the world’s population. I believe it. It doesn’t take much, yet almost nobody makes the effort. With a few months of focused reading, you could join the absolute elite of monetary knowledge.

Inflationism: symptom of a deeper disease. Mises: “Inflationism, however, is not an isolated phenomenon. It is only one piece in the total framework of politico-economic and socio-philosophical ideas of our time. Just as the sound money policy of gold standard advocates went hand in hand with liberalism, free trade, capitalism and peace, so is inflationism part and parcel of imperialism, militarism, protectionism, statism and socialism.”

Sell the news, buy the news, news this, news that. Forget about all that and just buy and hold bitcoin. Here’s the only news that matters:

nostr:nprofile1qqsgydql3q4ka27d9wnlrmus4tvkrnc8ftc4h8h5fgyln54gl0a7dgspz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43qz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmcycwfys memeing at 6:35am. We’re so back.

Mises (1953, TMC): Statism is the mind virus of our time. Reject it before it consumes you. “Etatism, as a theory, is the doctrine of the omnipotence of the State, and, as a policy, the attempt to regulate all mundane affairs by authoritative commandment and prohibition. In spite of all of its ill-success, etatism is still the ruling doctrine.”

Just heard this one from a friend (intelligent, wealthy, red-pilled) and need some psychic relief. We are still so early.

Anybody remember DOGE? Yeah. Nothing stops this train. Hold hard assets.

Bitcoin: Get on board before they charge you *panic rates* for it. Mises (1953, TMC): “An expected fall in the value of money is anticipated by speculators. The panic rates reached on the Exchange when foreign currencies and securities that do not represent a claim to fixed sums of money rise precipitately anticipate the march of events.”

Buy this book. Go into debt if you have to. It will change your life.

I rarely talk price, but you should know that $1M bitcoin is inevitable. “If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”

I like these overviews from nostr:nprofile1qqsvt4shn0ujczx9zvfnxe25pwdrmvx25ystkrm7j90jngejrgdx3hgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq32amnwvaz7tm9v3jkutnwdaehgu3wd3skueq7s207c. So simple. IBIT alone bought nearly 3x the newly mined supply over the past 5 months. They buy every week. We’re not even talking about MSTR or anybody else. Direction of travel couldn’t be any clearer.

Quick reminder that tomorrow’s FOMC meeting won’t change the script: inflate, expand credit, repeat. It’s all they know. Mises (1949): “All governments are firmly committed to the policy of low interest rates, credit expansion, and inflation. When the unavoidable aftermath of these short-term policies appears, they know only of one remedy—to go on in inflationary ventures.”