"Darkness cannot drive out darkness, only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that."
Martin Luther King, Strength to Love, 1963.
There are only 3 ways to outperform bitcoin:
1. Leverage: adding leverage can work, but it adds risk and must be understood.
2. Multiple expansion: can’t bank on it, as it can be driven by factors outside your control (and can go the opposite direction).
3. Sats flows: least risky, most durable avenue to outperform bitcoin (and the most under your control).
Focus on sats flows.
On a bitcoin standard your batting average will be much more important than it is now. The consequences of bad decisions and bad results are diminished when holes can be filled with the money printer and losses are absorbed by the masses.
In the future, behind every capital investment decision there will be two critical questions:
1) how much sats flow do I have at my disposal to invest? [input]
2) what are the expected sats flows from such an investment? [output]
You will only have sats flow to invest by having previously provided value, and you will only generate incremental sats flows by continuing to provide value in the future.
Sats flows are the only way to sustainably add bitcoin to your balance sheet. The capacity to continue capital markets transactions will eventually deplete.
Generating sats flows makes it marginally harder over time for everyone else to earn them. Others generating sats flows make it marginally harder for you over time to do the same.
Businesses and assets will largely remain overvalued until more (fiat) investors appreciate bitcoin as the opportunity cost. There’s a strong argument valuations in the bitcoin ecosystem are among the most rational in the world, as they are valued disproportionately by investors who appropriately factor in the true cost of capital.