There is the potential for a short term pullback here on #BTC. If it happens, we need to remain above $107k and Ideally $111K to maintain the impulsive structure. Also if $117K is breached, I’d like to see this level being quickly reclaimed for more continuation upward. #Bitcoin #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#nostr / @Damus UX has been horrendous in the last weeks. None of the new replies/note interactions show in the tab for new notifications. The only way to see new replies is for me to go check all my recent notes for new notifications. This wasn’t the case before… What has changed? I know maybe using less relays may fix the issue, but that’s not a great trade off and if some relays are the cause, I have no easy way to troubleshoot which relays these are.

The bear path has just been invalidated. It’s full bull mode on for #Bitcoin! The higher high/higher low structure that has been formed on the breakout should be maintained in order to for the bull path below to play out. If it were to break, I think an alternative path would still be bullish although less. #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

In short, #Bitcoin is at a crossroad. I would say that the bear scenario is the path of least resistance but it’s also the one that is the closest to be invalidated (only 2% away). Now it’s time for the bulls to follow-through this week breakout. The longer they fail to push #BTC price upward, the more likely the top would have been put in with this last impulse. It’s still possible to see a deep pullback (below $111K) and resume the uptrend, but the deeper and longer this pullback is, the less likely the uptrend will resume for this cycle. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Although Bitcoin has seen a nice breakout to ATH, it needs to do a bit more work to fully invalidate the bearish path and prevent this breakout from turning into a nasty bull trap. Path 1 🐻 : The bearish path remains possible as long as $121,100 isn’t crossed. The bulls couldn’t quite get there on the last impulse. Not crossing this level in the next month or so would make the bear path more likely. The path 1 could take a multitude of shapes but I drew what I think would be the most likely which is a slow sideway downtrend that could last up to the end of 2029 and reach sub $20K. The unusual length of this bearish path would be justified by a structure correcting 16 years of bull cycle down to the base of the fan formation (yellow lines). Path 2 🐂 : The bullish path will require a demonstration of force from the bulls as there are still quite a lot of upward resistance above the current level particularly the upward trend line formed by the three tops of this bull market (white line) and the upward trend line from the fan that has formed over the last 16 years (yellow line). #BTC just tagged the latter and while it can reject from here and still cross it, I would like to see a shallow pullback to then come back with strength to breach it in a convincing fashion. Crossing the yellow, then the white trend lines would prove the strength of this bull market that could then certainly be qualified as the supercycle that would definitely put an end to the 4 years cycle model. In this scenario, I would expect a massive uptrend to around $270K from now to mid 2026, followed by a long period of consolidation until the end of 2027, then a final up leg that would end this five and a half year long bull cycle at around $290K. Crossing $110,970 would make this scenario significantly less likely but still possible with a deeper pullback. Crossing $89,300 would make this path very unlikely and it would be fully invalidated if $74,480 is breached. I put both paths at an equal probability of 35% as the current invalidation levels remain untapped. Other alternative scenarios in between can play out although it’s unclear to me what those would look like. Probably, a lot of chops without a clear direction if I had to guess. I’m expecting more clarity in which path becomes more likely in the next month or so. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

Nice breakout for #Bitcoin. The thesis of the supercycle is now likely to be at play. #BTC may keep running for many years without seeing a cycle bear market. #Trading #Traderstr View quoted note →

I’m not surprised that the #Trump administration won’t release more information about #Epstein and his clients but I’m surprised that they don’t even try to come up with a better excuse. They didn’t even use the national security card. Oops…

This week will be pivotal for the the price of #Bitcoin. By the end of it, we are likely to get a better sense about which path will #BTC take for the next years ahead. Supercycle bull 🐂 or end of 16 years cycle bear 🐻 ? #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

I totally understand the narrative which is to say that the amount of #BTC that will be bought by governments and corporations is bullish for the price of #Bitcoin but maybe a consideration of higher importance isn’t how much money is chasing BTC but rather what share of these purchased BTCs is custodied in a manner that is manipulation-proof. It’s all well and good for those institutions and corporations to buy BTCs but if it’s for them to end up being custodied by #Coinbase that lends those to spot short sellers, all it does, is to provide an edge to those looking to tame the price of Bitcoin. Is it what’s going on or just unfounded FUD? View quoted note →

#Saylor & Co aren’t going to pump #Bitcoin. If you want Bitcoin to pump, sell your TadeFi #BTC, use the proceeds to purchase real Bitcoin and self-custody them. If we do it all on « Bitcoin self-custody Day », Bitcoin will pump higher that the mountain of debt accumulated by Saylor. Less bitcoins sitting on TradeFi equals less bitcoins to lend to spot short sellers which means less price manipulation and more upward price action. #BitcoinSelfCustodyDay View quoted note →

For the dollar overlords, suppressing the price of #Ethereum is a more important goal than suppressing the price of #Bitcoin. Non-fiat backed #stablecoins are a significant threat to the dollar and its yielding instruments. #ETH is the main #crypto used as a collateral for non-fiat back stablecoins. A lower ETH price means non-fiat backed stablecoins that are less liquid and yielding less yield. #stablecoin #BTC

After comparing the order flow from Coinbase and Binance for the BTCUSD pair, I’ve noticed that Coinbase has a much greater ratio of green rejection candles (candle closing green despite more selling volume) than Binance. There are many reasons that could explain the difference but one likely reason is that Coinbase sees more institutional volume while Binance sees more retail volume. Nothing surprising since BlackRock, #Saylor and other institutions have made Coinbase their home. However, it appears that green rejection candles could also correlate with a stronger presence of asset lending for short selling. This is especially likely if buyers are strong enough to absorb the sell pressure or if lenders and buyers are the same entities. Obviously, institutional players could play this role. There had been a lot of debate about this #Bitcoin cycle and why the dynamic of this cycle seems different. Indeed, so far we haven’t seen the type of parabolic price action that we’ve seen in previous cycles. Instead, #BTC has been rising in a channel with long periods of sideway consolidation. It’s difficult if not impossible to pinpoint what causes this change in character but my intuition tells me that Bitcoin lending activities conducted on Coinbase has a major influence. Coinbase lends BTC to institutional players who used the borrowed bitcoins to cap the price at given the levels creating multi months ranges where BTCs sold at the top are bought back at the bottom. Institutions are accumulating while retail witness diminishing returns on their BTC holdings. The power of Bitcoin to challenge the banking system is in its self-custody and auditability properties. The more people use centralized exchanges, or invest in ETF, the less threatening these properties become to the system. Coinbase is the worst of all as it hosts most of the institutional money and it’s the only major exchange that doesn’t provide provide proof-of-reserve. Coinbase and entities using them as their custodian, such as Startegy, should not be supported. While many think that the growing presence of institutions to Bitcoin is a good thing for the price (most would agree it’s not positive for the culture), I think it may actually be the opposite. Institutions get involved with Bitcoin under their rules which allows they same type of trickeries that take place in the fiat World. Unfortunately, it’s not an easy trend to reverse as a lot of money is favoring bitcoins packaged the tradefi way. All of this makes me wonder if Bitcoin will ever see the type of price action that has been seen in past cycles. Maybe Bitcoin got eaten by tradefi and there isn’t much that can be done (besides educating newcomers). That’s also the reason why I think #Monero has a fair shot at outperforming Bitcoin (price-wise) over the coming years. The delisting from exchanges are short term pains for long term gains. It removes the ability from centralized entities to suppress its price and frankly the institutions don’t want to have anything to do with #XMR. #Trading #Tradestr

The strength #Bitcoin is going to need to see a breakout against this ascending diagonal is pretty significant. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but probabilistically speaking, it’s not the most likely. If #BTC is going to have an extended cycle (supercycle), it needs to sustainably break through this diagonal. Unfortunately, if it doesn’t I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like the black path playing out. Downward sideway chop for 5 years. This would be the max fuckury scenario. Be ready for either scenario. Going all-in on only one could turn out to be very painful. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

@Damus I’ve noticed that recently I have people liking/commenting my notes but then their comments/likes would stop showing up on my client. I’m not sure if this is a Damus or a #nostr issue but it’s pretty bad UX.

Wait, What? So criminals in the U.S. work as farmers and maids? 😂 #Trump #USPol