This week will be pivotal for the the price of #Bitcoin. By the end of it, we are likely to get a better sense about which path will #BTC take for the next years ahead. Supercycle bull 🐂 or end of 16 years cycle bear 🐻 ? #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

I totally understand the narrative which is to say that the amount of #BTC that will be bought by governments and corporations is bullish for the price of #Bitcoin but maybe a consideration of higher importance isn’t how much money is chasing BTC but rather what share of these purchased BTCs is custodied in a manner that is manipulation-proof. It’s all well and good for those institutions and corporations to buy BTCs but if it’s for them to end up being custodied by #Coinbase that lends those to spot short sellers, all it does, is to provide an edge to those looking to tame the price of Bitcoin. Is it what’s going on or just unfounded FUD? View quoted note →

#Saylor & Co aren’t going to pump #Bitcoin. If you want Bitcoin to pump, sell your TadeFi #BTC, use the proceeds to purchase real Bitcoin and self-custody them. If we do it all on « Bitcoin self-custody Day », Bitcoin will pump higher that the mountain of debt accumulated by Saylor. Less bitcoins sitting on TradeFi equals less bitcoins to lend to spot short sellers which means less price manipulation and more upward price action. #BitcoinSelfCustodyDay View quoted note →

For the dollar overlords, suppressing the price of #Ethereum is a more important goal than suppressing the price of #Bitcoin. Non-fiat backed #stablecoins are a significant threat to the dollar and its yielding instruments. #ETH is the main #crypto used as a collateral for non-fiat back stablecoins. A lower ETH price means non-fiat backed stablecoins that are less liquid and yielding less yield. #stablecoin #BTC

After comparing the order flow from Coinbase and Binance for the BTCUSD pair, I’ve noticed that Coinbase has a much greater ratio of green rejection candles (candle closing green despite more selling volume) than Binance. There are many reasons that could explain the difference but one likely reason is that Coinbase sees more institutional volume while Binance sees more retail volume. Nothing surprising since BlackRock, #Saylor and other institutions have made Coinbase their home. However, it appears that green rejection candles could also correlate with a stronger presence of asset lending for short selling. This is especially likely if buyers are strong enough to absorb the sell pressure or if lenders and buyers are the same entities. Obviously, institutional players could play this role. There had been a lot of debate about this #Bitcoin cycle and why the dynamic of this cycle seems different. Indeed, so far we haven’t seen the type of parabolic price action that we’ve seen in previous cycles. Instead, #BTC has been rising in a channel with long periods of sideway consolidation. It’s difficult if not impossible to pinpoint what causes this change in character but my intuition tells me that Bitcoin lending activities conducted on Coinbase has a major influence. Coinbase lends BTC to institutional players who used the borrowed bitcoins to cap the price at given the levels creating multi months ranges where BTCs sold at the top are bought back at the bottom. Institutions are accumulating while retail witness diminishing returns on their BTC holdings. The power of Bitcoin to challenge the banking system is in its self-custody and auditability properties. The more people use centralized exchanges, or invest in ETF, the less threatening these properties become to the system. Coinbase is the worst of all as it hosts most of the institutional money and it’s the only major exchange that doesn’t provide provide proof-of-reserve. Coinbase and entities using them as their custodian, such as Startegy, should not be supported. While many think that the growing presence of institutions to Bitcoin is a good thing for the price (most would agree it’s not positive for the culture), I think it may actually be the opposite. Institutions get involved with Bitcoin under their rules which allows they same type of trickeries that take place in the fiat World. Unfortunately, it’s not an easy trend to reverse as a lot of money is favoring bitcoins packaged the tradefi way. All of this makes me wonder if Bitcoin will ever see the type of price action that has been seen in past cycles. Maybe Bitcoin got eaten by tradefi and there isn’t much that can be done (besides educating newcomers). That’s also the reason why I think #Monero has a fair shot at outperforming Bitcoin (price-wise) over the coming years. The delisting from exchanges are short term pains for long term gains. It removes the ability from centralized entities to suppress its price and frankly the institutions don’t want to have anything to do with #XMR. #Trading #Tradestr

The strength #Bitcoin is going to need to see a breakout against this ascending diagonal is pretty significant. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but probabilistically speaking, it’s not the most likely. If #BTC is going to have an extended cycle (supercycle), it needs to sustainably break through this diagonal. Unfortunately, if it doesn’t I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like the black path playing out. Downward sideway chop for 5 years. This would be the max fuckury scenario. Be ready for either scenario. Going all-in on only one could turn out to be very painful. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

@Damus I’ve noticed that recently I have people liking/commenting my notes but then their comments/likes would stop showing up on my client. I’m not sure if this is a Damus or a #nostr issue but it’s pretty bad UX.

Wait, What? So criminals in the U.S. work as farmers and maids? 😂 #Trump #USPol

You can’t be serious about fighting the fiat scam by being okay with the status quo to transact in fiat. The scam money has value because it has utility and it has utility because of men accepting the kind of money that one man can print. Fighting the fiat scam is all about growing the acceptance of better alternatives for transacting in all contexts where fiat is being used.

#Saylor calling #Bitcoin to 1 million without a bear market between now and then. That’s the kind of statement that makes me think that #BTC may consolidate at the current top while altcoins get a run. Also, interesting how he’s doing the math that Bitcoin must pop because of the differential between the BTCs acquired by institutions/companies and the supply sold by miners. Obviously, there are bigger sellers than just the miners or BTC would be much higher by now. Probably some OGs are taking profit but if Bitcoin ends up topping here, there will be a lot of suspicion that BlackRock and Strategy lends significant amount of BTCs to short sellers.