#sUSD holders feeling the slow bleed right now… #Stablecoin #Stablecoins #DeFi #Crypto #Synthetix View quoted note →

#Mantra #OM price dropped by 90% today. Apparently because of a massive forced liquidation by a large investor. I don’t want to be the bear(er) of bad news but could this be the canary in the coal mine? #Crypto #Trading #Tradestr

While #Blackrock and #MSTR have acquired 1M #bitcoin, or about 5% of all the supply that will ever exist, the price of #BTC isn’t even twice what it was four years ago. Why is that? I don’t know, but either we have whales selling massively or there are some shenanigans going on with their custodian which is #Coinbase.

We are back to 25%/25% probability for each path with path 2 being close to be invalidated. #Bitcoin #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#Coinbase is launching #KYC-verified liquidity pools. It will be interesting to see what impact those can have on the #DeFI ecosystem in the long run. Some questions I have: - Is there a risk for these pools to becoming more liquid than regular pools? - Can this model be used by regulators as an example to broaden their adoption? - Will this model be enforced in Coinbase DeFi products including the #Base, the #Ethereum L2? - Will these be adopted by the broad segment of non-#privacy minded users? #Crypto View quoted note →

After UST/Luna, I think the next #stablecoin to collapse will be #sUSD which is over-collateralized by #SNX. Although sUSD is still comfortably over-collateralized, its peg mechanism has been dismantled over the last year (reducing then stopping SNX rewards, stopping liquidations, and forgiving users’ debt by consolidating it in a pool owned by the #Synthetix protocol). There is no risk of « death spiral » like with Luna as the debt repayment mechanism has been stopped but instead, I think sUSD will see a « slow bleed » which should lead to a similar outcome over a longer time period. Indeed, in the absence of a pegging mechanism the bet made by the Synthetix team is that the peg will be restored/maintained by market demand generated from yield opportunities and product usage. This seems like « magical thinking » to me. The rational for removing the peg mechanism was that sUSD could risk seeing a death spiral event although others suggest that #KainWarwick, the founder of Synthetix, had taken too much debt that he couldn’t repay which led him to push for a debt jubilee. However, like for all jubilees, someone has to pay the bill and here the ones to be slaughtered will be sUSD holders… #Crypto #DeFi #Stablecoins

#TrumpTariffs in one picture.

Updating the probabilities for #Bitcoin price: - Path 1: 25% -> 20% - Path 2: 25% -> 30% #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

My two most likely outcomes for #BTC price this cycle: - Either #Bitcoin grinds up from here and top at around $135K this summer, or - Bitcoin dumps to $45K-$38K by end of April/early May, then it goes for an extended cycle that would put us at $160K-$220K by 2027-2029. As always, there are many other possible scenarios. #Trading #Tradestr

While #crypto have been crashing over the last months, #Idena has been outperforming most of the market including #Ethereum. Adding to this that Idena validators, which are neither required to purchase specialized hardware nor to consume a lot energy, earn high double digit yield (>50%). This price stability is made possible through #ProofOfPersonhood consensus coupled to a quadratic distribution of the mining rewards (smaller stakers earn higher yield). In the meantime, as I shared previously the blocks production is getting increasingly decentralized. Personally, a model of #blockchain that I find fascinating. #iDNA #PoP #Decentralization View quoted note →

Ultimately, the #Bitcoin 4-year cycle pattern will break and this will likely happen this cycle. The unknown is whether it will break to the upside or downside. #BTC #Trading #Tradestr

#Bitcoin cycles #Trading #Tradestr #BTC

Looking at the charts through #ElliottWave’s lenses is like looking at an ambiguous image. If you perceive only one side, you miss half of the story. #Trading #Tradestr