the Bitcoin Is Venice abstruse crypto-anarchist sympathies pipeline:

yesterday’s post on portfolio construction heuristics generated a much more interesting discussion here than on twitter, just as expected! today I’m reposting a much longer one (25 mins, per medium) that again got little to no meaningful engagement on twitter - this time about accounting, essentially. if you are a professional accountant, have any experience in tradfi, or in a finance department in a role that requires interpreting accounts, please please please do me a favour and take the time to read this and give me some feedback! TLDR: working capital is really not well understood or *accounted for* (lololololol) in traditional financial and accounts analysis, and I have come up with 2 ways of treating this mathematically that tease out how to think about it more sensibly: i) adjust DuPont to better reflect the differences between net working capital and fixed assets and between cash flow from operations and working capital adjustments. once you read it and grasp what these adjustments achieve, you will appreciate what I am getting at here is something like “true capital employed” and “true cash profit”. ii) extend the concept of “cash conversion cycle” from working capital to *all capital employed* so as to be able to directly mathematically interpret the effect the working capital position is having on returns. enjoy! https://allenfarrington.medium.com/days-of-capital-returns-d2520382638f

I posted this on twitter at the time (~november) but I’m coming around to the idea that twitter is just for shitposting and if you want to have serious, nuanced discussions, you have to do them here. it’s not a long read but TLDR is that there is a highly counterintuitive logic to embracing conditional probability in investing. and I really mean counterintuitive - Sacha and I have explained this directly to highly intelligent financial professionals who seem to follow all the individual steps but still can’t accept the conclusion. we cheekily distil this down to the Meyers-Farrington Law: “it’s better to be right when you think you’re right than it is to think you’re right when you’re right,” but the fun thing is that this is really just a rigorous mathematisation of a Buffetism. Warren do be smarts tho (other than on bitcoin): comments and commentary very welcome, especially since nobody cared on twitter 😂 https://sachameyers.medium.com/inversion-59344427e12c

“flexibler” should be a word

NETFLIX YOU MOTHERFUCKERS 😡 #LoveIsBlindLiveReunion #LiveMyAss #ImAngry #Hashtag

thrilled to report that not only does my new flat have a microwave, but that I just discovered the washing machine is ALSO a dryer!!! I aspire to one day acquire a dishwasher and literally drop dead of hedonism.

is there a word for when you are pooping but then you also pee unexpectedly and everything is a little frantic while you get it all under control? I bet German has a word for this.