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Financial Underground
financialunderground@nostrplebs.com
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We are more interested in getting the Big Picture right than gambling with short-term trades in rigged markets.
According to Forbes, there are around 806 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $5.8 trillion. Even if the US government confiscated 100% of their assets with a wealth tax, it wouldn't even cover federal spending for just one year. It certainly wouldn't change the trajectory of the debt spiral, which is now an unstoppable trend.
For thousands of years, gold has always been mankind’s hardest money. That all changed on April 19, 2024, and most people have no idea. image
In a recent article, I analyzed the ten most decisive monetary attributes and examined whether gold or Bitcoin has an advantage. The table below summarizes the results. Bitcoin wins in 6 out of the 10 categories, including hardness (resistance to debasement), which I believe will be the most decisive factor. While gold has an advantage over Bitcoin in durability, that advantage will only be relevant in the case of an inescapable, global return to the Stone Age that lasts into eternity. Such an unlikely outcome is not relevant to investment decisions today. Gold also has a fleeting advantage in liquidity, fungibility and privacy, and recognition. However, Bitcoin is eroding those advantages every day. If current trends continue, I believe Bitcoin will overtake gold in these categories in the years ahead. Putting it all together, gold’s advantages over Bitcoin are either irrelevant or melting away. The inescapable conclusion is that Bitcoin has superior fundamental characteristics that make it a better tool for sending value through time and space. Digital gold is better than analog gold. In short, Bitcoin is likely to win the ultimate competition and become the world’s dominant money. image
3 indisputable facts about altcoins. #1. In the history of altcoins, only 3 have ever made new highs in BTC terms after their initial pump. #2. One of them was Dogecoin, a joke with no practical use case, because Elon pumped it. 3. Practically every altcoin has exactly the same chart over the long-term. (see below) image
Bitcoin has tremendous value as a technology for freedom—even if the price stays flat forever. That’s because Bitcoin allows anybody to hold money that nobody can debase and enables anyone to send and receive value worldwide without relying on any third party. That represents a revolutionary improvement in money and economic liberty.
During the first oil shock in 1973, about 5 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 56 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 9% of the supply vanished. Oil prices roughly quadrupled. During the second oil shock in 1979, about 4 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 67 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 6% of the supply vanished. Oil prices nearly tripled. During the third oil shock in 1990, about 4.3 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 66 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 7% of the supply vanished. Oil prices more than doubled. If Iran were to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, it would remove a whopping 21 million barrels of oil from the global market. Today, global oil production is approximately 94 million barrels per day, which means about 22% of the worldwide oil supply could disappear. As we can see in the chart below, it would be the largest oil supply shock the world has ever seen… by far. image
American support for Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War was the catalyst for the OPEC embargo, which caused the first oil shock. The oil price roughly quadrupled, from around $3 per barrel to about $12 in a matter of days. It immediately triggered an energy crisis. There were gas shortages and panic in the US as drivers sat in lines stretching for blocks, waiting to fill their gas tanks. The second oil shock followed in 1979 as crude prices nearly tripled. A large conflict in the Middle East was again the cause—the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War. A third oil shock occurred in 1990 as Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing oil prices to more than double. Here’s the bottom line. Big Middle East wars are often catastrophic for global oil supplies. And supply disruptions cause price spikes. It’s a simple relationship. This isn’t surprising. Analysts estimate that over 40% of global oil exports come from the Middle East. Today, the Middle East is again on the cusp of a large regional war between Iran and its allies and Israel and its allies. The conflict could potentially be more destructive than the conflicts that caused the prior oil shocks.