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Financial Underground
financialunderground@nostrplebs.com
npub1wgjh...e082
We are more interested in getting the Big Picture right than gambling with short-term trades in rigged markets.
Let me put it into the simplest and most concise terms. 1. Central banks create fake money out of thin air and loan it to governments at interest. 2. Governments use violence and threats of violence to extract taxes from average citizens to pay the interest on the fake money the central banks created out of thin air. 3. Like the mafia, they can deploy violence to ensure there is no competition to their privileged racket. That’s the unvarnished truth about central banking. In short, it’s the business of usury and tax farming.
In a recent article, I analyzed the ten most decisive monetary attributes and examined whether gold or Bitcoin has an advantage. The table below summarizes the results. Bitcoin wins in 6 out of the 10 categories, including hardness (resistance to debasement), which I believe will be the most decisive factor. While gold has an advantage over Bitcoin in durability, that advantage will only be relevant in the case of an inescapable, global return to the Stone Age that lasts into eternity. Such an unlikely outcome is not relevant to investment decisions today. Gold also has a fleeting advantage in liquidity, fungibility and privacy, and recognition. However, Bitcoin is eroding those advantages every day. If current trends continue, I believe Bitcoin will overtake gold in these categories in the years ahead. Putting it all together, gold’s advantages over Bitcoin are either irrelevant or melting away. The inescapable conclusion is that Bitcoin has superior fundamental characteristics that make it a better tool for sending value through time and space. Digital gold is better than analog gold. In short, Bitcoin is likely to win the ultimate competition and become the world’s dominant money. image
On a recent CNBC segment, @Michael Saylor discusses why Bitcoin as a medium of exchange is a distraction. TLDR: "Nobody's trying to buy a cup of coffee with a fraction of their building on Fifth Avenue. But every rich person I know owns property in London, or New York City, or somewhere. And none of them complain about not being able to spend their building as a medium of exchange. So, the killer application is capital preservation for everybody. The store of value is the killer use case. Medium of exchange is a distraction." Andrew Ross Sorkin: Is there any risk that governments—the US government, Chinese government, other governments—somehow do something to Bitcoin that puts its growth in jeopardy? Michael Saylor: It's another great question, Andrew. A lot of times, the skeptics say, "Bitcoin looks too good to be true. It's so good to be true. Someone's going to take it away from you." That's based on a fundamental misunderstanding about Bitcoin. People refer to it as currency or digital currency, and that's an unfortunate historical artifact. It's not digital currency. It's digital property. Once you make that big leap and understand its property, you see the compelling use case is capital preservation for everyone in the world. There's no anathema associated with owning property. You can own a billion-dollar building in New York City. Every place in the world where they allow you to own property—China, Europe, the US—they're going to embrace Bitcoin as digital property. All the controversial issues around cryptos have to do with their use as a medium of exchange. But what I'm here to say is medium of exchange is only worth a trillion dollars. Store and value is worth a hundred trillion dollars. So I give your company, I give your family, I give your institution a billion dollars. I drop you in Africa and say, "You’ve got to save the capital for a hundred years. What are you going to buy?" And the answer is nothing. There is nothing on the entire continent you can buy that's better than Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin is going to be embraced as property. It's going to be controversial if people think of it as a currency. So, I would encourage people to think of it as digital property—a billion-dollar building in cyberspace and hold it for a hundred years. Andrew Ross Sorkin: Does it ever have to be a currency, or do you think it ever becomes a “currency”? Michael Saylor: It doesn't have to be a currency. Nobody's trying to buy a cup of coffee with a fraction of their building on Fifth Avenue. But every rich person I know owns property in London, or New York City, or somewhere. And none of them complain about not being able to spend their building as a medium of exchange. So, the killer application is capital preservation for everybody. The store of value is the killer use case. Medium of exchange is a distraction. Governments are always going to issue currency. They're always going to make it legal tender, and that's just fine. Bitcoin is competing with gold—it's going to eat it. Then it's competing with risk assets as a long-term holding, and it's competing with you buying an Airbnb as a retirement income source if you're a middle-class person.
Owning 1 BTC is like owning 324 ounces of the global gold supply; each would give you ownership over about 0.00000476% of the overall supply. Owning 1.236 BTC is like owning a 400-ounce Good Delivery gold bullion bar; each would give you ownership over about 0.0000059% of the overall supply.
Owning 1 BTC is like owning 324 ounces of the global gold supply. Owning 1.236 BTC is like owning a 400-ounce Good Delivery gold bullion bar.
Platinum and palladium are scarcer than gold but not hard assets. Current production is high relative to existing stockpiles. That's why platinum and palladium are industrial metals, almost nobody uses them as money.
A common misconception says money also needs to have some industrial use for it to be good money. However, that’s like saying a shoe must also be useful as a hammer to be a good shoe. Many people incorrectly reason that Bitcoin can’t be a good money because it has no industrial or non-monetary utility. However, industrial use is not needed to make something useful as money. Using something as money—i.e., to store and exchange value—is sufficient for it to be money. The fact that gold has some industrial use doesn’t give it superior monetary properties. People value gold as money primarily because it’s the one physical commodity most resistant to debasement—not because it’s used in dentistry, electronics, or other industries. On the contrary, I’d argue that gold’s relatively small industrial uses do not enhance its monetary characteristics. If they did, why aren’t metals with more industrial use—like copper or nickel—more desirable as money? When it comes to money, I’m only interested in its ability to store and exchange value. I’m not interested in something whose value is hostage to the whims of ever-changing industrial conditions. This is why industrial use is not a monetary benefit but, in fact, a potential detriment. Gold would be an even better money without the variation in its supply and demand from its industrial uses, which are unrelated to its use as money.
While it’s impossible to quantify the conflict precisely, we can look at the various domains of World War 3, see how each side stacks up, and make projections from there. It seems to me the advantage of NATO & Friends in financial warfare is fleeting and mostly neutralized by the advantage of BRICS+ in economic warfare. Across most other domains, neither side has a conclusive advantage. NATO & Friends has an edge in information warfare, but I don’t think that will prove decisive in the overall conflict. The one domain that I think will probably determine World War 3 is proxy warfare, where BRICS+ has the advantage and momentum. NATO & Friends could reverse the situation with the proxy wars. However, that would require them to take a bad hand and double down in a desperate attempt to get even. They may do so if they have nothing to lose, but I doubt it will change the outcome. As it stands now, I think there is an excellent chance that BRICS+ will prevail in World War 3 as they prevail in the three decisive proxy wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan and also neutralize NATO & Friends’ edge in financial warfare by developing alternatives. That means we’re likely to see the end of the unipolar world order and the emergence of a multipolar world order. image