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The MicroStrategy #bitcoin playbook works for companies with steady, recurring cashflows. SaaS works. Oil and gas E&P works. Logistics works. Bitcoin mining? Not so much. Cashflows are too volatile to cover the debt obligations. I’m skeptical of MARA’s recent announcement. Makes me think they’re working to offset some short term liquidity issues. Also, they’ll use the added liquidity (if they can secure it) to ride this next bitcoin bull run and likely enter into a different business (i.e. energy). But the MicroStrategy playbook works because MicroStrategy can DCA and smash buy without reliance on bitcoin price for their cashflows. This won’t end well for MARA without some major adjustments to their business model.

When is @preston going to get a segment on CNBC’s SquawkBox? View quoted note →

When is @preston going to get a segment on CNBC’s SquawkBox? View quoted note →

In 1971, the world moved from a gold standard to a real estate-backed credit standard.

Miners have to be feeling this low hash price … how many secured flexible credit financing (i.e. revolvers) to weather the immediate post-halving storm? If everyone has the fiat financing, does that just stave off the mass capitulation for later?

Taleb has serious Bitcoin Derangement Syndrome. He violates two of his key ideas in this clip: (1) he’s dismissing btc on the basis of its volatility, the very trap that he talks about in Antifragile, and (2) dude is sharing his opinion without taking a long or short position on btc - skin in the game or GTFO. He once had great ideas but his hatred for bitcoin has destroyed his ability to act rationally. View quoted note →

First rule of negotiation: Control the clock.

Bitcoin sets the risk-free rate … “doing nothing” is an entirely viable alternative to “doing something.” View quoted note →

Bitcoin sets the risk-free rate. That’s the product. View quoted note →