And mentions the Juice!

Based Al Michaels mentions bitcoin, then rejects the turkey for a tomahawk steak

Al Michaels mentioned bitcoin during the broadcast

shouldn't have even brought it up

It won't happen, but a Jets backdoor would be epic.

doing their best to validate Tom Brady's point about the quality of the product

Jets are unwatchable

THANKSGIVING DAY OBSERVATIONS Before I get into the NFL action, I want to say I otherwise had an enjoyable Thanksgiving, one of the better ones in recent memory. We went to a friend of a friend’s house, ate outdoors on a sunny, beautiful fall day and had really good food. They had three different styles of turkey, and our friends smoked a pork shoulder and brought that, along with the mashed potatoes, stuffing and everything else. The desserts were great too. There was even a basketball hoop where I played some one-on-one with Sasha (She’s getting to the point where I just try at 80 percent to beat her, rather than let her have easy layups like I used to.) Needless to say, I racked up my fair share of blocks, though she did make some buckets when I lazily let her go by and tried to catch up, but she was faster than I thought. Unfortunately, when I got home, I turned on the end of the Lions-Packers and was aghast to see my Lions -7.5 was dead, and my last-second switch from the Saints to Lions defense (zero points) in the Primetime was a disaster. Why did I make a last-second move yet again, disrespecting my former self, after vowing not to do that? The answer is I have a process (like I imagine most people have) which is to set my lineups on Wednesday ahead of the FAAB run to get clear on what I need. It’s not a finalized lineup, but just a quick-look plausible one to identify where I might need help from the waiver wire. Often that’s the lineup at which I’m looking on Sunday morning when contemplating a switch. On the one hand, that seems like a reason to be open to switching, since I didn’t put much thought into it, but on the other, that quick, snap-judgement on the plausible lineup is often the truest reflection of what you think before you get nervous about making an error. You’re saying, “I can switch this later, so I’m not worried about it, but, top-of-the-head, here’s what I think.” And that’s what you really think. But it’s an odd psychological trick, which by identifying and writing about it, I’m now ruining. Because the lineup isn’t final, you have no fears in setting it, so it’s your truest lineup. But now that I’ve said that, next time I do it, I’ll be aware that it’s the final lineup and put more thought into it, making it as worthless as my last-second switches. You have to not care, and you can only not care if it’s not binding. In other words, the only lineup you should adhere to without deviation is the one that’s not binding. It’s a paradox like almost every other important truth in life. So I had the Saints, but then I got to thinking: “The Lions are much bigger favorites than the Saints, and Justin Fields takes a lot of sacks.” That kind of midwittery is the failure recipe. I almost got so annoyed I switched out Dak Prescott for Brock Purdy, but thankfully I did not. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb did their parts, Kittle didn’t, and now I just need to pray for the Saints to have a modest game so I don’t defenestrate Sunday. If they put up 20, I have a feeling it’ll be the difference between making and missing the postseason. I went 0-3 ATS. Just the wrong side of every game, and there was a clear right side in each. (I used only one — the Lions — in the offshore super contest though.) I benched Jared Goff for Kyler Murray in the Steak League, and that at least seemed like a silver lining, but the Lions drove for a meaningless TD late that padded Goff’s stats pretty nicely. JG still stands for “Just a Guy” though. Amon Ra St. Brown also looked like he was having a dud, but a few catches on the final drive corrected his week. He has yet to have a bad fantasy game all year. Christian Watson finally did something. He was second on the team with seven targets, and I think we can trust him as a useful low-end starter going forward. I don’t know what to make of Jordan Love. My sense is he’s got a future as a high-end backup, but obviously the verdict isn’t yet in. Dak Prescott feasts on bad defenses, and the Cowboys are pass heavy. He would have had an even bigger day had he not overthrown CeeDee Lamb who was wide open on a deep route on the game’s first series. Anyone else notice Dak says “Here we go!” every snap? Tony Pollard is waking up the last couple weeks. Thirteen carries and six targets is sufficient. Sam Howell got another 300 passing yards. Only C.J. Stroud and Goff are on pace for more passing yards. (There should be trifeca futures props available for league leaders.) Why was Tony Romo praising the Football Team in the first quarter as if it were a contender? Dude, they got swept by the Giants! When did the NFL (and TV generally) start permitting ads for hard booze (Crown Royal) Not that I have a problem with it, but I just thought it was beer only. The Seahawks had no chance at any point. Their only TD was a fluky tipped-ball pick six, and one field goal was set up by a long kick return. Cris Collinsworth praised Christian McCaffrey saying, “he’s not the fastest, he’s not the biggest, he’s not the strongest, he’s not the anything-ist, but he’s the best.” And I thought, “He is the whitest.” McCaffrey does make it look easy, though. Jaxon-Smith Njigba made a nice one-handed catch. DK Metcalf gets most of the targets, but he doesn’t have the feel of a great receiver near the sidelines. No one did much on the Seattle offense anyway though. So it was a nice Thanksgiving, but football-wise for me, it was shit.

when did they advertising hard booze again on TV? Crown Royal

Dak's had a good half, but think if he had hit Lamb on that opening series bomb TD

why does Dak say "Here We Go" every snap?

Romo praising the Football Team like it's a playoff contender but they got swept by the Giants

put some air under it Dak!

fucked up on Thanksgiving. Swapped out Saints D for Lions (0), and took Lions -7.5 in my ATS pools.

SURVIVING WEEK 12 (Previous post had this title, but should have been WEEK 12 ATS PICKS). Can't edit on NOSTR, so it is what it is. Last week I lost one of my last two entries with the Football Team, but I pivoted to the Jaguars on the other, which is why I’m still writing this post. Let’s take a look at Week 12: At a glance, you can see there is really no pot-odds play here, as no team is more than 20 percent owned. Moreover, most of the big favorites — Lions, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins and 49ers have already been used, so you’re looking at teams like the Titans, Vikings, Patriots, Broncos and Colts. I tentatively have the Patriots who are horrendous, unclear on which of their bad quarterbacks to start and playing on the road against a solid Giants defense. But they are coming off a bye and get to face Danny DeVito who took nine sacks last week against the Team. I also like that the Giants are coming off a dramatic win. Big buy low, sell high, but that works much better against the spread than in Survivor. I just mostly hate the other options. If I change my mind, I’d probably pivot to the Titans who are at home and get a doormat on whom they can beat up. I just don’t trust a rookie QB against an okay defense. The Vikings will have their hands full with the Justin Fields Bears, the Eagles have a short week against a desperate team and could overlook Buffalo a bit after beating the Chiefs in KC, while the Broncos and Colts are coin flips. I’m probably sticking with the Pats even though I think the Giants are overall a better team. I just like the setup for them this week.

SURVIVING WEEK 12 I went 5-0 on the Normal entries last week, but 3-2 on the Ugly one. I’m having a solid year, but still a good eight games out of overall contest contention which is probably too much ground to gain in six weeks. In any event, here are my picks (the non-Thanksgiving ones are subject to change): Normal I don’t love that the Lions won a close game, but so did the Packers last week, and I don’t think much of Jordan Love. I like the Lions to get back on track at home and win easily. The Pats laying three is horrendous as it is the Giants who should be favored based on team quality, but this seems like a classic buy-low, sell-high, and the Giants got awfully lucky on turnovers last week while taking nine sacks. I give the Justin Fields Bears a puncher’s chance against all the non-elite teams, and the Vikings are certainly non-elite. The Raiders have shown up since Antonio Pierce took over, and the Chiefs have to come off a tough loss on a short week and travel to Vegas. This line seems a little large. The Texans are equal to the Jaguars, yet they’re getting 1.5 at home. Ugly I swapped out the Patriots for the Jets, as 9.5 is a huge road line for the Dolphins, especially as the weather and wind start to become factors in late November.

Last week I went 5-0, 3-2 on the two sets of picks, so I’m back on track after a poor Week 10. Here are my numbers for Week 11: I can’t believe the Pats are laying wood on the road, even against the Giants. I’m probably missing something, and it’s a good buy-low, sell-high but just a strange number to me. My Seahawks line assumes Geno Smith is playing, but the real line seems like there’s uncertainty. That’s a big number in Seattle. I thought the Saints would be favored in Atlanta, but the market has them closer to being equal teams than I thought. I’m buying the Raiders as a different team than before the house-cleaning. They’re not good, but they seem to show up at least. The Chiefs are off a short-week, heart-breaking loss. I think 9.5 seems excessive in Vegas. I also see the Jags and Texans as roughly equal teams. It’s surprising the Jaguars are road favorites, albeit small ones.

Monday Night Observations: I had the Chiefs -2.5, but I neglected to price in Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s hands. My bad — the model has since been adjusted to subtract three and a half points for each one. I had Devonta Smith going in the Primetime which was nice and Jake Elliott going in the Steak League which was not so nice. It could have been better, and it could have been worse. The short-yardage push play the Eagles run is such a massive advantage, I can’t understand why other teams won’t just watch the tape and copy it. If you have 3rd-and-3, you can just run it twice. Patrick Mahomes missed two throws, but otherwise played an almost flawless game under pressure. There are QBs who can run like Lamar Jackson and go through progressions like Tom Brady, but no one makes better decisions when pressured and on the move. The only one I can remember who came close was peak Aaron Rodgers. Rashee Rice is the only convincing receiver out there other than Travis Kelce. MVS shouldn’t be on this team, Skyy Moore has disappeared and Kadarius Toney is fun for gadget plays and punt returns. Mahomes could probably win another Super Bowl with Justin Watson as the leading receiver, but they’re making it unnecessarily hard on him. Kelce’s fumble was also a crushing turning point in the game. He also had a third-down drop for which he made up on the next play. Isiah Pacheco runs hard every play irrespective of the imminent punishment he’s about to take. I don’t think he’s long for the league, but he’s a solid player. Jalen Hurts didn’t play especially well, but you never have to worry about him in fantasy with all the automatic goal line TDs. The real-life contrast between him and Mahomes was stark though.

Week 11 Observations To be honest I don’t feel like going over the games in the usual format. It was a pretty good week, all things considered — 5-0 ATS in two entries, 3-1 in the other with the Chiefs -2.5 pending tonight. And while one of my last two Survivor entries got bounced with the Football Team, I pivoted to the Jaguars in the other because I had a hunch that might happen, and the trade off was worth it, given how many people likely got knocked out. Maybe it’s my going-nowhere fantasy teams. The Primetime was in fourth place coming in, with an outside chance for the playoffs, but I ignored a hunch to sub in Brock Purdy for Dak Prescott, and every 14 points count with only three more weeks to make up an 80-point gap. My heuristic was roll with the hot hand in Dak, but the Panthers ugly it up, and I kind of knew better. In the end, all heuristics are bullshit except one: make your own calls, whether bold or chalk, and live with your own mistakes. Relying on any other heuristic is no better than relying on Fantasy Midwits or the local astrologer — it’s an attempt to avoid making the choice for yourself. I watched some of the Giants game. Kayvon Thibodeaux is a beast. I know Sam Howell is a walking sack, but Thibodeaux was everywhere, even in on some run plays. This is obviously a lost year for the Giants, but the Thibodeaux-Dexter Lawrence-Andrew Thomas nucleus is strong. Saquon Barkley had a great game. The Giants couldn’t run at all for most of the day, and then he broke two long runs, on top of his two TD catches, one of which was a spinning back-shoulder grab while taking a hit in the end zone. In a parallel universe, he’s in the pantheon at the position. Tommy DeVito took nine sacks, which wipes the shine off that 9.5 YPA, but he didn’t turn it over, and that throw to Saquon was perfect. Brian Daboll coached his destroyed team up pretty well under the circumstances. It also shows the difference between DeVito off the practice squad a month ago and after playing and practicing with the first team. When people act like the QB is so important because of the cavernous drop-off from starter to no-name backup, that’s in large part because it takes a month of good coaching for the no-name to be even marginally competent. It’s not because the league-average QB is worth $35M a year in his own right. I watched a bunch of the Bears-Lions too. I started Goff, against Alan Seslowsky’s recommendation, over Kyler Murray in the Steak League, which cost me five points. But that was despite the Lions running in the game-winning TD, and Goff playing his worst home game of the year, i.e., this was a wrong call I can live with. I had the Bears +7.5 as one of my picks which was a no-doubter all day — until the last 30 seconds when Aidan Hutchinson knocked the ball out of Justin Fields’ hand, and it was rolling around the end zone before getting knocked out for a safety. Had the Lions pounced on it, it would have been an epic bad beat. Fields looked pretty good to me. If the Bears get the first overall pick (from the Panthers), they’ll have an interesting decision to make with respect to trading down or trading Fields. If I’m the Bears I let the market for each guide me. If a team wants the pick badly enough, I’d be okay to roll with Fields behind an absolutely monstrous stack of talent. I’m glad the Chargers lost. I hate that team. It was also nice to see Christian Watson finally catch a TD. Not that much else was interesting to me. The De’Von Achane and Kenny Walker injuries soured me a bit, and having Garrett Wilson in two leagues wasn’t ideal, but someone (not me) started Aaron Jones, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs and/or Najee Harris, so I take some solace in that. I’ve mentioned this before, but it occurred to me again: Does no one else find it odd that a few months after 9/11, out of nowhere, a historically unparalleled NFL dynasty formed called the “Patriots?” just as congress was passing one of the most pernicious, invasive and consequential laws in US history entitled the “Patriot Act.” And like the dynasty which seemed set to expire a few times, it got renewed over and over. Certainly a strange coincidence, but probably too on the nose to be anything more.