To better understand the current market conditions, it is worth familiarizing yourself with a little game theory, a concept that has played an important role in modern economics and has been the basis for many Nobel Prize-winning studies in economics. Game theory studies decision-making in situations where the outcome of our choices also depends on the behavior of others. The #Bitcoin market is a clear example of this concept. On one side, there are sellers who are selling out of fear of further price declines, and on the other side, buyers who are waiting for the selling pressure to end. The important point here is that selling power is limited. The more the market corrects, the more sellers exit their positions. Eventually, we reach a point where a large portion of those who intended to sell have already sold, and there is not enough power left to continue the downward pressure. For this reason, markets often change direction when the majority is still waiting for the same trend to continue. From a game theory perspective, when everyone is expecting a further decline, one must also consider the possibility that the sellers have played their last cards and the market is on the verge of a phase change.

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A Worrying Similarity to the Previous Cycle In the NUPL-Z chart, the current #Bitcoin situation resembles a part of the previous cycle in one important way, where the price, after a temporary rise, had not yet managed to enter a phase of real strength in terms of unrealized profits and losses. The important thing is that in both areas marked, the price has apparently tried to recover, but the indicators related to unrealized profits, especially among short-term holders, still remain near zero or negative territory. This means that a significant part of the new buyers are not yet in a strong profit position. If such a situation continues, it could be a sign of weak demand and the fragility of the recent growth. In the previous cycle, the same kind of weakness after the price recovery ultimately led to the continuation of the bearish phase. Therefore, the current situation should not be interpreted simply as a definitive bull market return. As long as the NUPL-Z cannot enter a sustainable positive territory, especially for short-term holders, the possibility of a bearish scenario remains serious. 📌 The market has not yet completely surrendered to the decline, but from the perspective of this indicator, the current similarity to the previous cycle is a clear warning: a price recovery without a strong improvement in holder profitability could be just a temporary rebound in the midst of a bearish structure.