Good morning Nostr

“I’m going to steal the President of Venezuela.”

REPORT — JANUARY 3 2026 Developments in Venezuela & Macro Impact on Markets & BTC Latest confirmed events • The U.S. conducted significant strikes in Venezuela early today and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, an unprecedented action in the region’s modern history.  • Venezuela declared a state of emergency and condemned the strikes as military aggression.  • China and several other major powers strongly criticized U.S. military action.  • Venezuela’s oil infrastructure reportedly was not physically damaged in the operation, per energy sources.  • Venezuela holds one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves (~303 billion barrels).  This is not a localized political event — this is a major geopolitical shock. ⸻ ⚠️ 1) Geopolitical & Risk Regime Implications A) U.S.–China & Global Order China condemned the attack, pointing to deeper strategic competition constituting a flashpoint in Latin America.  Global reaction is sharply split: • Western allies are cautious or supportive • Latin American governments (e.g., Brazil, Mexico) have denounced the strike • Russia, Iran, and others will likely use this to galvanize multipolar opposition Macro implication: Heightened geopolitical risk → historically this reduces cross-asset risk appetite short term, especially for risk assets. Macro markets see risk-off spikes on credibility shocks of this scale. ⸻ ⚡ 2) Oil & Commodities — Supply Expectations vs Realities Immediate market narrative might be “Venezuela supply disruption → oil up,” but reality is more complex: • Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was reportedly not materially damaged during the strikes.  • Venezuela’s effective oil output before sanctions was already low; though reserves are huge, actual production & exports were constrained by sanctions and logistics.  Near-term oil supply impact is muted because: • Venezuela currently accounts for a small share of daily supply due to sanctions and underinvestment. • OPEC+ still dominates pricing mechanics. However political risk remains high — operators may delay investment in Venezuelan facilities until clarity emerges. Oil price implication: • Near-term risk premium could rise, but global inventory surplus and OPEC+ dynamics likely dampen a sustained breakout. • Oil volatility spike likely, but not a structural supply shock yet. ⸻ 📉 3) Financial Markets & Risk Assets Equities & Global Risk Risk assets typically respond to geopolitical escalations with short-term drawdowns as flows move toward safety: • Safe havens: U.S. Treasuries, gold • Risk assets: equities, credit, high beta FX, crypto Historical pattern: When geopolitical shocks hit unexpectedly — especially involving U.S. military action — markets price in risk premia first, and fundamentals later. Expected short-term reactions: • Equity risk premium rises → potential modest drawdowns in EM equities and cyclical sectors • FX safe havens strengthen (USD, JPY) • Volatility spikes across asset classes ⸻ 🪙 4) Bitcoin & Crypto Markets — Macro Interpretation The key question: How does this affect BTC? Here’s how this feeds into macro drivers: A) Risk Sentiment / Fear & Greed A geopolitical shock adds to near-term risk aversion — which historically temporarily suppresses crypto. Crypto is high-beta risk asset: it sells off first in risk shocks, then recovers as liquidity & safe yields adjust. This fits classic global macro behavior. Expected near-term BTC price effect: • Widened intraday ranges • Flight to perceived safety within crypto (BTC > alt) • Temporary risk-off correction before macro drivers reassert ⸻ B) Liquidity and Policy Backdrop The real macro drivers for assets — including Bitcoin — remain: • Liquidity: Fed operations, global bank reserves • Real yields: cost of money beyond inflation • PMI / business cycle: expansion or contraction Geopolitical risk can pressure central banks to: • Cushion markets (e.g., delay tightening) • Increase liquidity deployments • Signal easing to counter flight-to-safety flows This tends to support risk assets over time once policymakers act. BTC’s sensitivity to liquidity is well documented — when real yields fall and liquidity rises, BTC tends to trend higher. So a short-term risk shock in absence of liquidity deterioration often leads to a dip followed by recovery, not a structural crash. ⸻ C) Strategic Narrative Implications This event pushes crypto narratives into: 1) Macro hedging Institutions may increasingly price BTC as a non-sovereign hedging asset amid global tensions. 2) De-risking of emerging market exposure If EM instability rises, crypto may be repriced differently by capital allocators — possibly as an alternative partial capital reserve to traditional hedges. ⸻ 🌍 5) Broader Macro & Geopolitical FX Impacts • USD: Likely strength in the immediate term — safe haven flows • EM FX: Potential weakness, especially Latin America (penalized by contagion fears) • Gold: Likely positive near-term due to risk aversion • Bonds: U.S. yields may fall initially on safe-haven buying Elevated geopolitical risk -> flight to quality. ⸻ 🧠 6) Geopolitical Spillover Risks Because Venezuela is strategically entangled with: • China (diplomatic & economic ties)  • Russia (political alignment)  • Regional neighbors (mixed reactions)  This is not a localized shock — it has potential to trigger: • Contagion into other geopolitical tensions • Supply chain risk repricing • Heightened military readiness in adjacent theaters This could feed into a broader premium on geopolitical risk, which historically temporarily elevates commodities and safety assets and depresses risk assets until liquidity conditions normalize. ⸻ 📍 7) Timeframes to Watch (Macro Lens) Immediate (0–72 hours): • Risk assets volatile (equities, bonds, crypto) • Safe havens stronger • Short squeezes or panic moves possible Short-term (1–4 weeks): • Markets repricing risk premia • Central banks react to risk sentiment and liquidity dynamics • Oil volatility persists Intermediate (1–3 months): • Policy responses (rate signals, liquidity injections) • Risk assets stabilize if liquidity supports risk-taking Long-term (3–12 months): • Structural narratives reshape allocations • Geo-economic realignments influence capital flows ⸻ 📌 MACRO CONCLUSIONS (OBJECTIVE) 1. Today’s strike is a major geopolitical risk event. It is rare to see a sitting head of state captured in this manner, and global reactions will reflect that reality.  2. Near-term risk aversion is historically likely. Risk assets (including BTC, equities) could correct temporarily as sentiment reprices. 3. Central banks and liquidity policy will be critical. Liquidity response will determine whether this event is a brief risk shock or fuel for systemic shifts. 4. Bitcoin is probably to see short-term pressure but not structural breakdown unless liquidity tightens or global growth deteriorates. BTC is a risk asset first — macro asset second — in the short window. 5. Oil markets may not react strongly near-term due to limited effective Venezuelan supply, but strategic premium could persist.  IMPLICATIONS SUMMARY Bitcoin & Crypto (Near-Term): Expect heightened volatility and short-term downward pressure. Crypto behaves like a high-beta risk asset during geopolitical shocks, so capital typically rotates into safer assets first. This is sentiment-driven, not structural, and should normalize once the risk premium fades. Bitcoin (Medium-Term): As long as global liquidity conditions remain neutral-to-improving, BTC is likely to recover after the initial shock. The macro forces that actually drive Bitcoin (real yields, liquidity, PMI) matter more than geopolitical noise. Short-term turbulence does not change the medium-term trajectory. Global Equities: Equities generally face immediate sell-off pressure during geopolitical escalations. Risk premium rises, volatility increases, and investors rebalance into safety until clarity improves. Emerging markets, especially in Latin America, will likely experience the most pressure. U.S. Treasuries / Bonds: Expect safe-haven flows into U.S. Treasuries, leading to short-term declines in yields. This is a standard reflex: when geopolitical uncertainty spikes, capital seeks stability in high-grade debt markets. Foreign Exchange (FX): The U.S. dollar typically strengthens in these scenarios due to global demand for liquidity and safety. Conversely, emerging-market currencies may weaken—especially those in Latin America, which will be priced for regional contagion risk. Oil & Energy Markets: Oil may see increased volatility due to the psychological risk premium, but immediate sustained upside is unlikely since Venezuela’s production was already constrained and infrastructure was not damaged. Markets will watch for escalation rather than current supply loss. Gold & Precious Metals: Gold tends to benefit the most from geopolitical instability. Expect upward pressure as investors seek a non-sovereign hedge in the metals space. This effect may also indirectly support Bitcoin later, once risk appetite stabilizes.

So long as we get that sweet sweet beautiful oil am I right?

For those who know me, know that this last year and a half has been… tough to put it lightly. And you also know that I had a real low point this year of stress and anxiety. Not looking for sympathy but just wanna say thank you to everyone who’s been there for me, it really feels like things are turning a corner and I’m excited for where things are going. I’m beyond blessed to have the friends and family I have. #IDontGetTired #newyear2026

📊 Current Prices & Recent Trend As of today (Dec. 31, 2025): Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around ~$87k – $89k — below recent highs near ~$126k, and reflecting a clear downtrend from October into December.  Ethereum (ETH) is around ~$2.9k–$3.0k, also down from its 2025 peaks and showing weakness compared to BTC at times.  Solana (SOL) is in the ~$120 – $130 range, consolidating lower and lagging in relative strength compared to BTC/ETH.  All three assets have been declining over the past few months (particularly since the October 2025 tops), consistent with a macro risk-off phase in late 2025. ⸻ 📈 Context for Macro Outlook Prices are down over the past ~80 days — tracks with real market behavior: BTC Corrects from ~$126k October peak to sub-$90k by year-end (~30%+ drawdown).  ETH Also down materially as broader risk sentiment wanes.  SOL More volatile and has experienced an even larger drawdown percentage than BTC.  This is exactly the pullback phase of a broader cycle where liquidity and macro risk-sentiment influence asset pricing, aligning with a late-cycle consolidation/reversion rather than a fundamental breakup. ⸻ 📉 Interpretation of This Price Weakness This price behavior reflects macroeconomic conditions late in 2025: ✔ Weak risk appetite Crypto often leads risk assets lower during periods of growth-to-contraction transitions in macro indicators, including PMI and liquidity. ✔ Institutional repositioning ETF flows and institutional wallets can reduce exposure in December while waiting for clearer policy signals. ✔ Macro liquidity ebb Despite structural support, short-term liquidity constraints & real yields have pressured risk assets, including crypto. All of this fits the macro environment we’re in, the crypto market turns with liquidity and yield regimes, especially in late-cycle reflexivity phases. ⸻ My projections, potential bottom range of ~55–75k for BTC before cycle lows, factors in real price movement and macro realities as of today Dec. 31, 2025. Prices are not isolated from macro; they are expressions of it. ⸻ 📈 Quick Calibration of What This Means for the Outlook Because BTC, ETH, and SOL have: failed to sustain October 2025 highs corrected significantly over the 80–90 days entered a consolidation drawdown phase This reinforces the macro regime assumption: Temporary risk aversion + tightening real yields → weak crypto sentiment followed by Liquidity inflection + cyclical rebound → better performance ahead But that macro regime position must also align with: • PMI improvement • real yield decline • rate cut expectations • liquidity expansion If these macro signals fail to materialize, that would shift the forecast.

Every year I think “they can’t turn this year into glasses.” Every year I am proven wrong.

Happy New Year Everyone!

How are we all doing today?

Anyone wanna join me on a weight loss journey? I’m starting Keto

Social Capital put $10M into Groq’s seed round in April 2017 when the company was worth roughly $30M post-money. That single check bought about 33% of the company. Then they doubled down with $52.3M in a 2018 convertible note. Total deployed: $62.3M. Here’s where it gets interesting. Groq raised $300M at $1.1B in 2021, then $640M at $2.8B in 2024, then $750M at $6.9B in September 2025. Each round diluted early investors. But Social Capital had board seats and likely maintained some pro-rata through the convertible. Conservative math: They own somewhere between 15-20% of Groq today. At $20B, that’s $3B to $4B in value. $62M in. $3-4B out. That’s a 50-65x return in 8 years. For context, this single investment is worth more than Social Capital’s entire fund size in 2015 ($1.1B). One bet. Eight years. 50x. The timing is the wildest part. Chamath invested in custom AI chips in 2017, years before ChatGPT made inference compute a thing. He sat on the board until 2021, then stepped back right as the company was entering its growth phase. Now Nvidia is paying $20B in cash because they need Groq’s LPU architecture for inference at scale. Jensen is essentially writing Chamath a check for being early on the inference bottleneck.

Merry Christmas

Sam Altman: “Okay OpenAi I need you to make ChatGPT better.” OpenAI employees: “Okay Gemini… how do we make ChatGPT better?”

Merry Christmas everyone