As you can guess, my bets on weak job numbers this week to send Bitcoin down to my predicted amount and date. After that, $144k in October then it's time to bail and go home until next year's bargains.

Bitcoin $99,400 - 6th/7th June 2025

Weekly divergence kicking in. Same on daily

We are within a year of a major geopolitical event happening. This is the event that society will "blame" as being responsible for the next GFC major collapse. But first we must have the blow off top... which is about to really start motoring 🚀

Beware of Bitcoin. It's VASTLY oversold on every metric and smart money from the big boys is scaling out of the SPX. Unless some tiny chance % anomaly is occurring and we're decoupling (VERY unlikely; obvious to spot as we'd go parabolic) then lots of players risk getting squeezed out by the market makers and funds. We've had our ride from lower $70ks. Smart to not be greedy here.

Make no mistake, we are on the verge of massive market collapses: stocks, property etc. But history shows us with have a blowoff top before the collapse. I think we still have that ahead of us. It's impossible to envisage a collapse before a blowoff top. When things are booming and look incredibly good, that the worst is behind us, well that's the time to be alert and be suspicious. Plan ahead.

My counts have been mixed up with Bitcoin inverting. Waiting to see if we bottom 12th May for next leg up for confirmation for the next 6 months moving ahead.

CRITICAL point with US 10=Year YIELDS. We CANNOT close higher than today's high, so I'm tending to think we have topped for now. We need next week to produce lower yield and let the market calm or we have some serious issues erupting in the markets again, as in S&P, NAS will all crash back towards the recent lows. Bottom line: Things are looking fugly, like a pig wearing makeup, and the make up is slipping.

Further Trump tariff capitulation evidence: “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this. “Attempting to use talks as a pretext to engage in coercion and extortion would not work,” the ministry added. China holds all the cards with their stronghold on US Treasury Yields. China were never going to fold with obvious Trump's tariff bluff... now the rest is down to Chinese pride and Trump's ego. If Trump doesn't force a senior US official to eat humble pie on his behalf, and himself to a lesser degree, then China will start putting on the squeeze again which the US cannot afford. Add in that anyone with half a brain in the US knows that tariff's will be passed on to the consumer. They will never be "eaten by China." Game over.

We're getting closer to Trump totally capitulating on the tariffs he introduced. There''ll be a lot of backspin from Camp Trump, but they now fully realize the lunacy and optics of it, and their aggression. Minor tariffs, which are largely irrelevant, will remain. The Fed will cut, was always going to cut anyway--everything else was misjudged optics that will cost the USA severely in 2026. Blow off top ahead.

Bitcoin went higher than I expected, breaking a 9/10 rule, but the Dow also did the same so figures. Next couple of days will confirm if my "thesis" was accurate or not that Bitcoin has another leg down first. It'll all depend on where it has its temporary top. Doji daily candle hinting it might be now. Watching and waiting.

All markets will end next week down... probably even into Monday before the bounce. How's that for an Easter message 🐣

I took a look around the interwebs and am I right that I'm the only citizen of Earth who thinks Bitcoin is headed down from here before it's next leg up??? Everyone seems to be declaring we go up from here. I guess it's possible to get up nearer $88k over the Easter break on low volume and an absence of market makers, but even then I don't see how $88k can break, unless the laws of physics have changed in our universe. Too many people drinking hopium and not using their brain. Let's see if this comment bites me 😬🫠♾️

Best "guess" from charts: • We drop from here for 10 days to a new low in the $70,000s • Then we bounce around for 20 days and then... • Spike down for an even lower low to flush out the longs... • And THEN we finally start climbing in earnest to an October peak. BUT it could/probably not be until JULY until we really start 🚀 Not much else to add now until after Easter... other than I still expect $88k to hold I guess. (Charts in previous notes) #Bitcoin #BTC #trading #nostrtraders #nostrt

Clear picture reminder of why I believe $88,000 will not be breached. Next support is down at $71,300. I expect this holds, but... There is a lower but reasonable chance of risk that we spike down to the lower $60,000s for a very brief moment. I'm looking to buy in the low $70,000s. But I'm also setting orders to buy even more if it does spike crazily low into the low $60,000s. All it takes is one crazy Trump announcement or China stating they'll no longer be buying US Bonds etc. #Bitcoin Forever... until at least 2140... if I live that long.

Bit by bit Trump is backing down on tariffs. Now he's backed down on electronics from China (MAJOR). It was always a "shoot yourself in the face and foot at the same time" kind of move. So what's the next tariff backdown? We might eventually end up with only 125% tariffs on China for the importation of peach pips. China not buying US Treasuries last week kicked Trump in the ballsack to show him how to really play bully boy. Kick 'em where it hurts. Expect a major spin from Trump this week, followed by more backing down in the following months. SPX will be happy. Thus so will Bitcoin. I still don't expect Bitcoin to break $88k this month (longer time-frames). Next month looks better on the charts with run to $92k. GN.

One word: YIELDS ‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️ 🆙‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️ And more ugly Treasury auctions this week. China confirmed by reply today in saying, "FU then, we're not going to buy your debt anymore." They've put the squeeze on Trump and I can't see a way out for him unless he backs down further on tariffs. Japan sure as heck isn't going to be happy buying it all. Ego is Trump's flaw. The only way out for Trump to save face is to print money to buy those Treasuries. Bitcoin will blossom. So will inflation until we burst and collapse. Forcing the Fed to cut will only accelerate inflation and exacerbate the problem. There is no way out of this for America. There is not one logical argument which makes any reasonable sense for a way to win this. I expect Gold, Bitcoin, and certain shitcoins are about to start the boom next month.

Up early. GM. Couldn't sleep. Let's rant: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Biggest buyers of U.S. goods in order: Canada Mexico China Japan United Kingdom Countries purchasing the most U.S. debt in the form of U.S Treasuries: Japan US $ 1 Trillion China US $ 800 Billion Therefore, which 2 countries does the U.S. rely on the most? What happened on Tuesday was they refused to buy more Treasuries/debt. The market flipped at this dire situation. The biggest bank CEOs all spoke out saying we'd go belly up. Even DOGE Lord Elon Musk pleaded with Trump to end tariffs. Trump spoke with Japan and got them to buy the next day's Treasuries. They did. If they didn't, the USA money printing machine would have go to brrrrr to buy them instead. Japan honored. Trump backed down on tariffs. But we still have a trade war, particularly with China. Americans will tighten their wallets in this uncertainty--no matter what. The damage is done. And everything is made in China, which just got a whole load more expensive. (They estimated that building the new iPhone in America would push it's price up to $3,500 to paint a picture). Back to Treasuries. Now what if China slows down buying US debt? Forget about the craziness if China decided to dump some of that debt--BAM!--the USA would collapse (because no one can print money that fast, lol!) and take the world down with it. Basically, money printing is here to stay. America's cycle is ending as the global powerhouse. These are the last dying cries of going down with a fight. Stagflation next, briefly, and inflation will give us the blow off top we have before everything crashes in a heap, I expect, next year, second quarter 2026. This has little to do with politics, and more with market cycles. What's happening was inevitable. It's just that Trump has exacerbated this cycle end to make it more dramatic. Ironically, the only person who will do well out of all this, when we're standing amongst the rubble, is Trump. He'll be rich, and in a special oligarchy clubhouse along with Putin and Xi. To put a downer on it all, if you get really bored, read up on what happened in the lead up to World War 2, and look for the commonalities with today. I had to stop reading. What's the paradigm that rescues the world and makes most of the above obsolete? Yeah, #Bitcoin But it's going to take time. We'll get there, but there's going to be some teething troubles. And hopefully I'll be living in a remote paradise by then, away from the madness and spending my sats in retirement.

The Bond market forced Trump to act. Yields in the past 3 days were doing the opposite of what he wanted. Japan and China (largest buyers of Treasuries) stopped buying Treasuries earlier in the week and yields spiked. If China decided to dump Treasuries on the market then the USA would've been vulnerable to collapse. BUT if the USA collapses then China loses. They're currently playing chicken with each other. It is NO coincidence the last Treasury auction sold well AFTER discussions with Japan. Most likely Trump got Japan to take up orders as part of the tariff negotiations. Bottom line? Band-Aid solution. And China has so far won this one, no matter how the US government is trying to spin their 90-day offer. This isn't over and has a long way to run. For Bitcoiners, this chaos is wonderful as BTC, more and more, is starting to act like a real safe haven. Not as solid as gold (in the market's eyes) but getting there. 2027 is going to be a GREAT year for Bitcoin. Remind me.