My best guess is that the AI stock bubble will peak this October 2026 right after the Anthropic IPO.
Of course that does not mean that AI will stop or not be important tech, just as the bust of the dotcom bubble did not mean that the Internet was not important. Financial markets have their own logic that has more to do with money flows, interest rates and inverstor psychology than with the growth of the underlying tech.
Oil prices, inflation and interest rates are pushing things now. We are not far from a breaking point. That is probably why AI corps are starting to hedge their bets: OpenAI delayed their IPO, Anthropic is calling for caution, etc...
