Shipping around Hormuz is another good indicator obviously.

ShipXplorer

ShipXplorer - Global Vessel Tracking Intelligence | Live Vessel Tracker and Port Status

Real-time vessel tracking with one of the best and most accurate coverage worldwide.

Air Traffic around TLV tells me all I need to know about how the #war is going. This is not over.

Flightradar24

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport infor...

Segundo intento... #hispano #followlist https://following.space/d/3ec54c78-d5de-4877-87fd-cbb7edf47a78?p=e3eb2eaca428217263ae49b258c0540aa4f6fb81dec08f69c664c1f0c4a94801

How do I share a follow list? #AskNostr

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war Can Iran survive strikes on its water infrastructure? Can US Gulf allies survive strikes on water infrastructure?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How long can Iran last without selling oil? How long can the US take $100+ oil?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war Is Iran getting ISR and targeting help from Russia? China? Do they have satellite surveillance?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war What is Pakistan doing? What is India doing? What is Turkey doing? Those 3 neighbours have nukes (In Turkey' case they don't own them, but they are there).

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How close can US ships get to Iran before drone, missile intercept time is too short? How precise are Iran's drones, missiles?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How many troops does Iran have? How many troops does the US have? How many in the Gulf?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How many missiles does Iran have? How many interceptors does the US have?

"The first casualty of war is the truth" Aeschylus (525-456 BC)

"Seize territory around the waterway with ground troop" WSJ floating the idea of a "limited" ground invasion. 🤦

“Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter, in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ... [V]oice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.” ― Hermann Göring

Almost even odds for boots on the ground in March! Another big jump in 24hrs, another Saturday escalation.

Polymarket

US forces enter Iran by..?

US forces enter Iran by..? (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Hear me out... Polymarkets but with zaps ⚡ No account needed, no registration. All you need is an npub and LN address. To bet you just zap the YES or NO note.

I have not done TA in a while... but this chart looks awful. I would not long this with government money. #SPY

89% delete recommendation. Loving the prompt!

EU Regulation Review

A live AI review of the entire corpus of EU regulations from 1958-2025

As societies become more complex and sophisticated, rules and laws accumulate until they are too many, too complex, too restrictive. "Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges" in the words of Tacitus. Historically hyperregulation has 3 solutions: 1. Deregulation (Milei, Erhard) 2. Codification (Justinian, Napoleon) 3. Revolution #regulation

I'm updating scenario probabilites based on latest developments. The possibilities for quick negotiation have almost completely evaporated. The US will need boots on the ground, even if it's very limited and just at a few points near the coast. My most probable scenario at this moment is Iraq 1 (1990). There is still a reasonable probability that the US and Israel could pull back and limit themselves to a siege/embargo of sorts.