I'm updating scenario probabilites based on latest developments. The possibilities for quick negotiation have almost completely evaporated. The US will need boots on the ground, even if it's very limited and just at a few points near the coast. My most probable scenario at this moment is Iraq 1 (1990). There is still a reasonable probability that the US and Israel could pull back and limit themselves to a siege/embargo of sorts.

Big new push in the EU for censorship. Applauded by all the usual suspects. #Nostr is necessary.

The problem with AI is that the result always looks good, until you zoom in. Always some typos, always loses precision. Still... it is fast. #history #timeline

"Never let a crisis go to waste" Spain PM Pedro Sánchez call for accelerated digital euro launch. #cbdc #hispano

Libre Mercado

Sánchez pide adelantar la entrada del euro digital mientras Suecia defiende el dinero efectivo en plena incertidumbre

"Europa necesita una arquitectura de pagos soberana", señaló Pedro Sánchez, que quiere acelerar la creación del euro digital.

The amount of war propaganda flooding media is astounding. It's reached a point where you are closer to the truth ignoring it completely. Searching for accurate bits of info is hard work.

Acabo de grabar con @npub1ve7f...dusx @npub1fsl7...su7h @npub1qqqq...hrhr y @npub19dg0...6yd2 sobre Nostr. ¡Muchas gracias! #hispano #hola

This is just a rough approximation. But you can see the alignment between climate and artifact production. Mediterraneans definitely produced (and traded) more pottery when it was warmer. Of course the artifact count suffers heavily from selection and survivor bias... but the sample is still large enough that it is a good economic proxy.

Art and data align. The main branch curves with historical climate data, which in turn affects the East-West power balance. Mediterranean trading in bronze age vessels cares a lot about the weather. Just ask Odysseus! #history #timeline

The art and the data align reasonably well. #history #timeline

Hey @npub18l0c...4ml9 Do you like this style?

If you want to read some good sci-fi about the Singularity, I highly recommend Vernor Vinge's "Marooned in Realtime".

It looks like Ray Kurzweil was spot on. We are in the most interesting times.

@npub1gcxz...nj5z @npub16c0n...6nvr is there some relay crisis happening this week? I'm seeing a lot of notes that fail to propagate. It would be great to hear from the trenches.

War is hell. The best and most unbiased stats I've seen so far on Ukr-Rus war losses.

Ukraine War Losses Tracker

Ukraine-Russia War Personnel Losses Tracker

Real-time tracking of Ukraine-Russia war personnel casualties with verified data, historical trends, and comprehensive statistics.

Timeline as border in illuminated manuscript. #timeline #history

AI image edit is fun with @npub1rs2y...c4u6

@npub1ynnj...u3gk lower

Simple scenario analysis for the Iran war. Obviously I will update probabilities as events unfold and options are closed off. Unfortunately I think that the most optimistic scenarios from this point have a very low probability, based not just on the rhetoric but also on the actions of participants.

The 5 Stages of Trader Evolution

How long can Iran keep Hormuz strait closed trading $10k drones against $1M interceptors? My guess is years. Airpower will not be enough. There are no good alternatives.