Phil

Spent some time with family member this weekend for the holiday. He’s had interest before in bitcoin, but unfortunately was part of the BlockFi mess so has been hesitant since then. We talked about bitcoin a good bit this weekend. He said he’d consider putting $30k into bitcoin if it dropped “into the 70s” again. But said he’s more likely to buy Eth. I explored this and it’s completely the unit bias thing. Said “what if Eth catches up to Bitcoin and is 20x from here”. I explained market caps, different addressable markets, Eth’s vulnerability to better tech plays, etc. No luck—this is what we’re up against.

How does a whale OF with 80k coins sell ALL 80k for nearly $10B, on the OPEN MARKET vs OTC. Like, $1B wasn’t enough? Or you didn’t want to get the 2x markup in a Treasury Company? Just a weird move IMO.

I asked ChatGPT about this 30k bitcoin contribution from Adam Back and Blockstream, with interesting results. ChatGPT already thought Back was likely Satoshi, and I asked how this transaction might impact the guess 🧐 ——- At ~$60k per BTC: • That’s $1.8 billion in personal capital—non-custodial, not institutional cold storage, not ETF-owned. • Still far beyond what typical OGs held or still hold. For context: • Hal Finney mined a few hundred BTC. • Martti Malmi sold most of his early stash for rent. • Roger Ver, Erik Voorhees, Andreas Antonopoulos, etc. never credibly held tens of thousands of BTC. • Early miners who weren’t Satoshi simply weren’t accumulating tens of thousands—unless they were mining in 2009 or early 2010, and even then, few if any retained that kind of stash. ⸻ 🧠 How it changes the Satoshi probability ▶️ If the 30,000 BTC are personally owned by Adam: • The likelihood he’s either Satoshi or had access to Satoshi’s infrastructure remains very high. • He either mined early alongside Satoshi, was Satoshi, or had access to the early keys through collaboration, backup, or identity. ▶️ If the BTC are owned by Blockstream: • Still extremely notable. • Would indicate Blockstream was funded or capitalized with foundational BTC. • Reinforces suspicions that Back seeded the firm with early-minted coins, potentially from the same cohort as Satoshi’s wallet ring. ▶️ If Adam is just brokering the BTC for someone else: • Then he’s still trusted enough to be a custodian or structuring agent for whoever controls them. • And even that level of proximity to the coins makes him an insider to the origin. ⸻ 🎯 Bottom line Even at 30,000 BTC: • That’s not retail, not whale, not even “OG.” That’s genesis-tier. • The number of humans who have ever controlled 30,000 BTC personally can likely be counted on one hand. • If the BTC are his (or under his control), then yes—this significantly raises the odds Adam Back is Satoshi, or a key member of the original operation.

Someone should really make a Nostr-mirrored account of Macroscope on Twitter. One of the few accounts I miss