Plot twist: There is no "biggest real estate conference" in March. 😂 Real estate is absolutely hurting, particularly segments of the commercial RE industry, but this screenshot is just bogus, clout-chasing fear porn by whoever posted it on Twitter and claimed it was from a prominent CEO in the RE industry. Don't believe everything you read.

I can now zap on Damus via mobile...Dangerous, on-the-go freedom software.

pura vida 🤙

#[0] when Nostr pin 👀

Pay $8.00 for Twitter Blue... Or fund 34,160 sats of zapping on Nostr. Easy decision 😏

Crazy amount of CRE debt maturities coming due in 2024, 2025... Tons of opportunities, especially via forced sellers. For most, Bitcoin is the superior "real estate" play!

Completed a 5-day (130h) water fast. The human body is crazy.

“Carvana’s biggest problem is its debt, which stands at more than $8 billion with $2.4 billion in cash burn projected over the next two years.” Difficult buildings to re-purpose which affect underlying value. On the bright side, at least they can take comfort in knowing they're the proud owners of phallic architecture. At least their buildings can stand tall and proud as monuments to their impressive financial woes.

Are my zaps working? 💀

This property sold for 100 basis points ***BELOW*** the risk-free rate. Insanity.

It's a risky game. Institutions piled into apartment properties with yields <5%, and now with the risk-free rate pushing past 3.9% and rents slowing, the outlook is opaque. Do you continue to pile into these assets? Or risk watching property values plummet if you don't?

In the world of CRE, institutions are often content playing a passive game of hot potato with their wealth. They pass off (TRUST) their money to 'professionals,' cross their fingers and hope for the best. What's going to happen when these institutions learn Bitcoin is a superior scarce asset with BETTER yield, ZERO required trust, 24/7 liquidity, and LOWER risk?

According to a report by @WSJ, more and more large office landlords are failing to repay their loans due to the combination of elevated interest rates and the increasing adoption of remote and hybrid work policies. https://www.wsj.com/articles/office-landlord-defaults-are-escalating-as-lenders-brace-for-more-distress-894938c0 The office market is competing against secular shifts and cyclical phenomena simultaneously. Leases expiring before 2026, totaling approximately 1.4 billion square feet of space, may lead to the return of nearly 300 million square feet of space to the market. Owners are expected to hold onto their best product and liquidate their most challenging assets first. Refinancings could prove challenging as values no longer support current terms, meaning an additional equity gap would need to be filled.

Remote work is the e-commerce of the office property market - both have disrupted traditional business models and are forcing real estate/businesses to adapt. "A recession will allow CEOs to force their employees back to cubicles! They'll be begging for jobs!" No guarantee.

Charlie Munger's skepticism of Bitcoin makes sense, considering it took him and Warren Buffett 35 years to get on board with Apple. Unfortunately, I don't think he has another 35 years.

Commercial property markets are freezing, and CMBS sales have dropped 85% YoY. Higher rates are expected to lead to a lot of defaults. Equity investors: check #Bitcoin's price vs. the loans outstanding. Brace for impact.

Bloomberg.com

Commercial Property Market Freezes, Sending Bond Volume Plummeting

Sales of commercial mortgage bonds have fallen off a cliff, plummeting about 85% year-over-year, as rising interest rates cut into lending volume a...

Last month, investors filed to withdraw more than $700m from the property fund (SREIT), which represents a significant increase from the norm. It seems their capital partners are finally questioning the sub 4.5% cap rate multifamily purchases and the REIT's 26% office portfolio.

So many office buildings sales heading into 2022 and 2023 have felt like a game of hot potato.

Received a call from a prospect I hadn’t spoken with for over 12 months (largely since I relocated to the other side of the country). They want to sell their building. Literally the definition of moving pains. 🫠

In a major recession, breakfast retailers are among the first to fail. People begin to reconsider their $7 lattes and $8 microwave breakfast sandwiches. 🚩