A more thorough analysis of bitcoin options expiry: The massive options expiry on December 26, 2025, is heavily anticipated by analysts because it creates a specific set of market mechanics that function like a "compressed spring" being released. While option expiries often cause short-term volatility, this specific event is unique due to the sheer size of the Open Interest (contracts outstanding) and the specific strike prices involved. Here is an explanation of why this expiry could unlock significant upside for Bitcoin, broken down by the market mechanics at play. 1. The "Pinning" Effect (Why Price is Stuck Now) Currently, Bitcoin is trading in a tight range (roughly $85k–$90k). This is not accidental; it is partially artificial, caused by Dealer Gamma Hedging. •The Box: There is a massive concentration of Put options at $85,000 and Call options at $100,000. •The Mechanic: Market makers (dealers) who sold these options need to hedge their risk. When the price drops toward $85k, they are forced to buy to hedge. When price rises toward $100k, they are forced to sell to hedge. •The Result: This activity acts like a dampener, suppressing volatility and "pinning" the price in the middle. The market is currently in a "gamma trap" where price struggles to break out. 2. The "Max Pain" Magnet ($100,000) The Max Pain price is the specific price point at which the greatest number of options (both puts and calls) expire worthless. This is the "sweet spot" for option sellers (market makers). •Current Max Pain: For the December 26 annual expiry, the Max Pain level is widely reported to be around $100,000. •The Upside Pull: With Bitcoin currently trading below this level ( ~$89k–$90k), the "Max Pain Theory" suggests there is a natural gravitational pull upward toward $100k as the expiry approaches. If the price moves to $100k, the vast majority of Put holders (betting on lower prices) and Call holders (betting on higher prices like $110k+) both lose, maximizing dealer profits. 3. The "Uncoiling" (Post-Expiry Release) This is the primary argument for a massive upside move immediately after December 26th. •Lifting the Lid: Once these contracts expire at 8:00 AM UTC on Dec 26, the dealers no longer need to hedge these specific positions. The "sell walls" that were artificially capping the price at $95k–$100k vanish instantly. •Volatility Return: The suppression described in point #1 ("Pinning") disappears. If there is underlying bullish demand (spot buying) that was previously absorbed by dealers selling to hedge, that demand will suddenly face no resistance. •The Samson Mow Thesis: Prominent analysts (like Samson Mow) have argued this specific date is when "gravity disappears," potentially allowing Bitcoin to snap rapidly toward $110,000 - $112,000 as the artificial suppression is removed. 4. Positioning for 2026 (The Rollover) The December expiry also marks the end of the trading year for institutions. •Bullish Rollover: Data shows that while December contracts are being suppressed, the 2026 contracts (calls for March and June 2026) are priced with a heavy bullish skew. •New Allocations: As the old "hedged" positions expire, traders often roll their capital into new, further-out bets. If these new bets are aggressive Calls (betting on a price rise), dealers will have to start buying Spot Bitcoin to hedge the new positions, creating a fresh tailwind for price. Summary The upside thesis rests on the idea that Bitcoin is currently being artificially suppressed by hedging flows related to the $100k strike price. •Before Dec 26: Price may grind slowly upward toward $100k (Max Pain). •After Dec 26: The "suppression" lifts, potentially triggering a rapid breakout as the market reprices for 2026 without the burden of the massive 2025 sell-walls.

Hal Finney’s email after Satoshi created #Bitcoin, he predicted someday bitcoin will reach $10 millions a coin. What a visionary!

Good morning Nostr, Let's break down why the massive **Bitcoin options expiry** on December 26, 2025—one of the largest ever, with around **$23.8 billion** in notional value across platforms like Deribit—could set the stage for **significant upside** in BTC's price action. ### Key Dynamics at Play 1. **Pre-Expiry Pinning and Hedging Pressure** Right now, heavy open interest clusters around $85K puts (downside protection) and $100K+ calls (bullish bets). Institutions have sold calls to cap upside while buying puts as hedges. This creates "structural resistance" above ~$100K and damping on big moves—keeping BTC range-bound in the mid-$90Ks lately. Dealers hedge delta by selling spot when price rises (capping gains) and buying when it dips (buffering drops). 2. **Post-Expiry Removal of Overhang** Once these contracts expire and vanish, that artificial cap lifts. No more massive call walls forcing dealers to sell into rallies. If BTC holds above key levels (like max pain around $90K-$100K), many out-of-the-money puts expire worthless, and bullish positioning unwinds without dragging price down. 3. **Bullish Skew in Positioning** While there's downside hedging, the bulk of high-strike calls (e.g., $100K-$118K had huge OI earlier) reflect institutional optimism for year-end/2026 upside. Post-expiry, surviving longs can reallocate freely, and any short squeeze from expired puts could fuel momentum. Historical patterns show volatility often spikes *after* big expiries, especially when hedging flows clear out—potentially directional to the upside in a bull market. 4. **Year-End Repricing and Flows** This expiry includes quarterly + annual contracts, forcing a "concentrated clearing" of positions. With thin holiday liquidity, a breakout becomes amplified. Analysts note risk repricing could favor bulls if BTC avoids a deep dip pre-expiry. Not financial advice—markets are volatile—but this expiry clearing could remove a major ceiling and unlock fresh upside fuel for Bitcoin into 2026. 🚀 What do you think—ready for a post-Christmas rally? #Bitcoin #BTCOptionsExpiry

Good morning Nostr

The new world of #Bitcoin

Good morning #pardonsamourai #freesamourai

Time and health are your most valuable resources. By owning #bitcoin, you can delegate your 40-hour workweek to it, freeing up your time to prioritize your health and well-being, ultimately allowing you to live the life you desire.

GM Nostr

GM Nostr

Here’s a concise, Twitter-thread-ready version (under 280 chars each): Recent Bitcoin Wins – Last 4 Weeks 🔥 1/7 BTC now +1.2% YTD for the first time in 2025 2/7 Surged 5%+ to $94.6k on Fed rate-cut hopes (another cut expected Dec 18) 3/7 Bank of America tells clients: allocate 1-4% to crypto 4/7 Vanguard ($11.5T) opens BTC ETPs to 50M+ users 5/7 MicroStrategy adds cash buffer → no forced selling for 12+ months 6/7 Coinbase Premium & funding rates flip positive → US buyers back big 7/7 Fed ends QT, pumps $13.5B liquidity, M2 at ATH $22.3T Bonus: US banks now legally allowed to trade BTC for customers $100k loading… 🚀

Not QE QE, the money printer goes burr.

Fed cuts 25 bps + surprises with $40B Treasury bill buys starting this week — effectively stealth QE. What it means for Bitcoin: - Lower rates → cheaper money, risk-on - Liquidity injection → weaker USD, more fuel for assets - Historically, rate cuts + balance sheet expansion = rocket fuel for BTC Short-term: volatile (sell-the-news dip possible) Medium-term: strongly bullish — $100k–$110k in sight Q1 2026 Bitcoin loves easy money. The spigot just turned back on. 🚀 #Bitcoin #Fed #BTC

BREAKING: The Fed says it will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th and will purchase $40 billion worth of Treasury Bills in 30 days. QE has just begun 💸

GM Nostr.

Fix the money, fix the world. #Bitcoin can fix half the problems in the world.

#Bitcoin sellers, @saylor said in his keynote at Bitcoin MENA, he will buy all your bitcoins. He wants it all. 🔥

Fix the money, fix the world. That will be #bitcoin’s contribution to the world.

#Bitcoin is a savings technology that increases your wealth exponentially as human productivity increases exponentially, someday AI and robots will create wealth for you and store it in your bitcoin.

One of the important feature of #bitcoin - no counter party risk. No one can take your bitcoin from you if you guard your private key securely.

#Bitcoin stores your labor and time, it give you back your time so you can spend it freely.