ok i’ll bite. nostr feels absolutely dead. it’s not just me. a lot of accounts i try to keep up with are constantly posting and getting almost no engagement. maybe it's time to be honest and actually think about whats going wrong instead of trying to create fake hype. there i said it.

watched boston dynamics’ new atlas for a few mins today. human evolution took about 2m yrs from homo habilis to now and it’s still an ongoing process. meanwhile these robots basically started a few yrs ago and are already pulling off incredible hand movements and hands are the hardest part. replicating hands means solving high dof control tactile sensing real time feedback loops and motor precision all at once. kinda wild to think where they’ll be in 20/30 yrs with ai accelerating exponentially.

looks like both karpathy and elon are saying the singularity is finally getting close. i mean very close probably within the next 12 months or so. if that’s true, by the end of 2030, 5 to 10m bitcoin doesn’t sound crazy at all. when everything becomes abundant and money gets easier as a consequence, scarcity is what ends up mattering most.

winter vibes 🍻

they spread quantum fud not just to push the price down. they’re also going after satoshi coins and lost coins. the goal is to make them permanently inaccessible on the bitcoin network, artificially and unethically shrinking the supply.

this handsome guy just stopped by my backyard this morning 🦅

i feed them well. raw peanuts are their favorite.

btc is about to enter a golden 2 year run. i’ve never been this bullish on bitcoin. signs are everywhere. the more the price gets compressed, the bigger the breakout will be.

“Bitcoin is taking excess energy and storing it as a new currency. You can take it wherever you’d like, transporting it everywhere.”

a very simple theory yet it cuts deeper than most people realize. bitcoin’s outcome’s binary. either it trends toward infinity or it collapses to zero. most likely it won’t go to zero and it won’t ever be replaced because any successor would inherit a fatal flaw the moment it’s born. if you can replace money once, you can replace it again, and that destroys all trust, so it’s not about a better tech. hal articulated this very nicely. whats unique about bitcoin is that it has solved that final coordination problem which is the biggest challenge of getting the entire world to agree on a single digital monetary standard that no one can change, no one can remake, and no one can reset. the path is basically one direction.

traditionalists will resist ai the same way the amish resist modern tech but denial won’t help.

you’ll hear many bitcoin skeptics using “ai is deflationary and thats bad for bitcoin” argument. partly true, so prepare your answers.

ai is deflationary. very soon probably within the next 5-6 yrs, the money supply to debt ratio vs business productivity will completely flip meaning productivity output will grow far faster than the expansion of money or debt. in that environment bitcoin absorbs productivity surplus and can be the best vehicle to store the excess value created.

incredible hate on mstr lately. i get the fiat npcs hating because they think they missed the train and instead of admitting their ignorance and course-correcting, they just double down. but bitcoiners? it’s a company laser-focused on stacking as much bitcoin as possible. they’re literally inventing new tools like digital credit and perfs to make it happen. why the hate? what happened to “bitcoin for everyone”? why try to take down a guy who’s doing what’s best for his company and his shareholders? the only real issue saylor has is not self-custody yet, but that’ll too happen at some point. if you want million a coin or want to retire your family on bitcoin, start embracing the good people actually pushing wall st toward bitcoin.

the relationship between bitcoin’s production cost and price floor is one of the most underrated dynamics. when you look at the data, there’s a clear correlation. every time mining difficulty doubles, the estimated production cost increases by roughly 33%. this isn’t random, it’s basic economics playing out in real time. think about it like any other commodity. oil, gold, copper, etc… they all have production costs that act as gravitational floors. when price drops below cost of production, miners shut down, supply contracts, and the price finds equilibrium. bitcoin works the same way. the hash price (revenue per terahash) essentially sets a baseline. miners can’t operate at a loss indefinitely. they capitulate, difficulty adjusts down, and suddenly the remaining miners are profitable again. and in contrast, when price rises on global liquidity or other factors, more miners come online, supply expands and the system naturally absorbs the new demand. this creates a natural support level what makes bitcoin unique. you can literally watch the difficulty adjustments every two weeks and can calculate the approx. cost per coin based on electricity rates and hardware efficiency. the game theory is right there in the open. historically bitcoin has never traded below production cost for extended periods. it might wick below during capitulation events but it doesn’t stay there. the miners won’t let it. so when you see difficulty climbing and hash price compressing, you’re watching the network reinforce its own value floor in real time. each difficulty adjustment is the market discovering what bitcoin is actually worth to produce and that becomes what it’s worth to hold.

bitcoin outgrew the retail 4 year cycle story. it now acts as a global liquidity valve that only happened to line up with a 4 yr rhythm in the last three halvings. that pattern’s gone. from now on it sniffs out liquidity first and reacts in both directions. as new coin production keeps shrinking in the coming yrs, that barometer only gets sharper at measuring global liquidity.

if this really turns into a bear market, binance is basically the main architect of the last one and maybe this one too. they nuked ftx and its soon to be acquired blockfi and that kicked off the previous bear. this time it’s two nyc firms after that liquidation event in october, one of which is a market maker. still not fully clear but hearing they’re raising cash hard.

in about 10 years, global liquidity will be mediated by bitcoin either through direct settlement or indirect pricing mechanisms. central banks might resist it, legacy financial institutions might build abstraction layers over it but the underlying reality remains: bitcoin becomes the reference point for monetary expansion and contraction cycles. markets don’t care about ideology or what policymakers prefer. they flow toward the hardest and most credible anchor available. whether it’s through derivative products, treasury strategies or sovereign balance sheets, the path forward isn’t a question of if but rather which specific mechanisms the market selects to make it happen. liquidity will find bitcoin the same way water finds the lowest point, not because anyone mandated it but because the alternative is holding progressively devalued claims on productivity that doesn’t exist yet.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

agreed. 4 yr cycles broken and 2026 will be wild.