incredible hate on mstr lately. i get the fiat npcs hating because they think they missed the train and instead of admitting their ignorance and course-correcting, they just double down. but bitcoiners? it’s a company laser-focused on stacking as much bitcoin as possible. they’re literally inventing new tools like digital credit and perfs to make it happen. why the hate? what happened to “bitcoin for everyone”? why try to take down a guy who’s doing what’s best for his company and his shareholders? the only real issue saylor has is not self-custody yet, but that’ll too happen at some point. if you want million a coin or want to retire your family on bitcoin, start embracing the good people actually pushing wall st toward bitcoin.

the relationship between bitcoin’s production cost and price floor is one of the most underrated dynamics. when you look at the data, there’s a clear correlation. every time mining difficulty doubles, the estimated production cost increases by roughly 33%. this isn’t random, it’s basic economics playing out in real time. think about it like any other commodity. oil, gold, copper, etc… they all have production costs that act as gravitational floors. when price drops below cost of production, miners shut down, supply contracts, and the price finds equilibrium. bitcoin works the same way. the hash price (revenue per terahash) essentially sets a baseline. miners can’t operate at a loss indefinitely. they capitulate, difficulty adjusts down, and suddenly the remaining miners are profitable again. and in contrast, when price rises on global liquidity or other factors, more miners come online, supply expands and the system naturally absorbs the new demand. this creates a natural support level what makes bitcoin unique. you can literally watch the difficulty adjustments every two weeks and can calculate the approx. cost per coin based on electricity rates and hardware efficiency. the game theory is right there in the open. historically bitcoin has never traded below production cost for extended periods. it might wick below during capitulation events but it doesn’t stay there. the miners won’t let it. so when you see difficulty climbing and hash price compressing, you’re watching the network reinforce its own value floor in real time. each difficulty adjustment is the market discovering what bitcoin is actually worth to produce and that becomes what it’s worth to hold.

bitcoin outgrew the retail 4 year cycle story. it now acts as a global liquidity valve that only happened to line up with a 4 yr rhythm in the last three halvings. that pattern’s gone. from now on it sniffs out liquidity first and reacts in both directions. as new coin production keeps shrinking in the coming yrs, that barometer only gets sharper at measuring global liquidity.

if this really turns into a bear market, binance is basically the main architect of the last one and maybe this one too. they nuked ftx and its soon to be acquired blockfi and that kicked off the previous bear. this time it’s two nyc firms after that liquidation event in october, one of which is a market maker. still not fully clear but hearing they’re raising cash hard.

in about 10 years, global liquidity will be mediated by bitcoin either through direct settlement or indirect pricing mechanisms. central banks might resist it, legacy financial institutions might build abstraction layers over it but the underlying reality remains: bitcoin becomes the reference point for monetary expansion and contraction cycles. markets don’t care about ideology or what policymakers prefer. they flow toward the hardest and most credible anchor available. whether it’s through derivative products, treasury strategies or sovereign balance sheets, the path forward isn’t a question of if but rather which specific mechanisms the market selects to make it happen. liquidity will find bitcoin the same way water finds the lowest point, not because anyone mandated it but because the alternative is holding progressively devalued claims on productivity that doesn’t exist yet.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

agreed. 4 yr cycles broken and 2026 will be wild.

after a long break he came back to twitter calling everything a bubble. a few weeks later he’s retiring from professional investing. he failed because even the most sophisticated still don’t get this new era. ai is infrastructure, not just a gadget or tech. it’s gonna scale exponentially. energy is the most important commodity of this new era and it only grows linearly. it’s gonna take time for industry to realize how huge that mismatch really is but it will eventually reshape everything.

8b+ ppl and 21m bitcoin. thats the signal. forget everything else.

sorry but the 4-year cycle’s dead. and no, we’re not going back to 60k.

from twitter and I 100% agree: "In the next 10 years most baby boomers will be entering assisted living or nursing homes. Almost 60% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage. Almost 30 % of baby boomers have 2 homes. If you buy a home in the next 10 years and especially at a 50 year mortgage, you will never see a positive return."

interesting nostr pattern: publicly traded btc treasury companies get way more hate here than on twitter. i get the laser eyes vibes since im one of them but still why the hate for public entities actually helping pump your bags at the very least? every company public or private should have a btc treasury to protect against currency debasement like any individual would. why the hate?

weird cycle for sure. either an explosive upside soon or a continuous slow grind.

bitcoin’s marketing department just dropped a new ad. subtle as always.

i see so many quantum doomsday posts recently that are just wrong. even in the rosiest scenario, we’re minimum 20–30 years away from a fault-tolerant quantum box with enough logical qubits to run shor’s algo on secp256k1. by then bitcoin will have already upgraded and probably upgraded humanity too.

we need public post impressions on nostr. i wanna see reach per post on every post. don’t really care about other metrics but post impressions actually matter. given that we only have a few thousand active users here, it’d be very useful to have a reality check every time i post. could be encouraging or discouraging. right now it just feels like a blind run.

nvidia is now worth $5t or 47m btc. Wait what! 🤣

the biggest customer segment for hardware wallets are people holding less than $10k in bitcoin or crypto overall. if a significant portion of your net worth is in bitcoin, you’re not swapping out your hardware wallet every few months like a toy. these companies keep releasing new versions of their wallets every few months mainly to attract small holders and new buyers who have no clue, not long-term bitcoiners with serious net worth in btc who actually care about security and consistency. almost like a scam.

your weekly reminder: zcash is a scam promoted by silicon valley rats.