USD/CAD trades on a softer note below 1.3700 ahead of US PMI data ========== USD/CAD is trading below 1.3700 and in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices dropped by 0.8% MoM in March. The downside of the pair might be capped by strong US economic data and the Fed's hawkish comments. Investors are waiting for the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later this week. Canadian Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. The decline of WTI prices exerts some selling pressure on the Canadian dollar. The high-for-longer rate narrative in the USD might lift the greenback against its rivals. The Core US PCE might offer some hints about the progress against inflation. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-trades-on-a-softer-note-below-13700-ahead-of-us-pmi-data-202404230125

After Monday's relief rally, attention shifts to earnings and policy fronts ========== After Monday's relief rally, global stock markets experienced a rebound in the S&P 500, snapping a six-day losing streak. Investors remain cautious on both the earnings and policy fronts. The upcoming Big Tech earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expected to influence short-term market dynamics significantly. The recent downturn in the stock market is linked to uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve easing and evolving inflation landscape. The Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts is still debated, especially after Chair's more hawkish tone last week. Thursday's US data and Friday's release of the Super Core derivative from the PCE index will be crucial in determining the Fed's policy stance. The bond market has adjusted to unexpectedly hot data, now pricing in just 1.5 rate cuts for this year. The interconnectedness of macroeconomic policy and financial markets is an ongoing storyline. Policymakers need to heed caution in making short-term decisions influenced by recency bias. #StockMarket #Earnings #Policy #FederalReserve #Inflation https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/after-mondays-relief-rally-attention-shifts-to-earnings-and-policy-fronts-202404222207

After Monday's relief rally, attention shifts to earnings and policy fronts ========== After Monday's relief rally, global stock markets experienced a rebound in the S&P 500, snapping a six-day losing streak. Investors remain cautious on both the earnings and policy fronts. The upcoming Big Tech earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expected to influence short-term market dynamics significantly. The recent downturn in the stock market is linked to uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve easing and evolving inflation landscape. The Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts is still debated, especially after Chair's more hawkish tone last week. Thursday's US data and Friday's release of the Super Core derivative from the PCE index will be crucial in determining the Fed's policy stance. The bond market has adjusted to unexpectedly hot data, now pricing in just 1.5 rate cuts for this year. The interconnectedness of macroeconomic policy and financial markets is an ongoing storyline. Policymakers need to heed caution in making short-term decisions influenced by recency bias. #StockMarket #Earnings #Policy #FederalReserve #Inflation https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/after-mondays-relief-rally-attention-shifts-to-earnings-and-policy-fronts-202404222207

Canadian Dollar grinds out meager recovery ahead of Tuesday's US PMI figures ========== The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher on Monday, trading into the green against most of its major currency peers. Canada brought strictly low-tier data to the table on Monday with an uptick in the Raw Materials. At the same time, Industrial Product Prices met expectations, printing higher but less than the previous figure. The Canadian New Home Price Index flattened in March, missing forecasts while retreating slightly from the same period last year. Tuesday's US PMIs expected to show a slight uptick in activity. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices came in at the expected 0.8% in March, easing back slightly from the previous month’s 1.1% (revised upward from 0.7%). The Canadian New Housing Price Index flatted in March, printing 0.0% versus the forecast steady hold at 0.1%. YoY NHPI eased back -0.4% as housing prices wobble following years of accelerated growth. Canada’s Raw Material Price Index jumped 3.7% in March, vaulting over the forecast 2.9% compared to February’s 2.1%. Canadian February Retail Sales due to print in the midweek, forecast to rebound to 0.1% on Wednesday after January's -0.3% decline. Tuesday’s US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the key data print for the early week, with the Manufacturing component forecast at 52.0 (previous 51.9) and the Services component also anticipated to print at 52.0 (last 51.7). The Canadian Dollar is mounting a slow recovery, with the USD/CAD pair targeting 1.3700. The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation, and the Trade Balance. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates. The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. #CanadianDollar #UsPmi #EconomicData #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #OilPrice #Inflation #TradeBalance https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-grinds-out-meager-recovery-ahead-of-tuesdays-us-pmi-figures-202404221654

Canadian Dollar grinds out meager recovery ahead of Tuesday's US PMI figures ========== The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher on Monday, trading into the green against most of its major currency peers. Canada brought strictly low-tier data to the table on Monday with an uptick in the Raw Materials. At the same time, Industrial Product Prices met expectations, printing higher but less than the previous figure. The Canadian New Home Price Index flattened in March, missing forecasts while retreating slightly from the same period last year. Tuesday's US PMIs expected to show a slight uptick in activity. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices came in at the expected 0.8% in March, easing back slightly from the previous month’s 1.1% (revised upward from 0.7%). The Canadian New Housing Price Index flatted in March, printing 0.0% versus the forecast steady hold at 0.1%. YoY NHPI eased back -0.4% as housing prices wobble following years of accelerated growth. Canada’s Raw Material Price Index jumped 3.7% in March, vaulting over the forecast 2.9% compared to February’s 2.1%. Canadian February Retail Sales due to print in the midweek, forecast to rebound to 0.1% on Wednesday after January's -0.3% decline. Tuesday’s US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the key data print for the early week, with the Manufacturing component forecast at 52.0 (previous 51.9) and the Services component also anticipated to print at 52.0 (last 51.7). The Canadian Dollar is mounting a slow recovery, with the USD/CAD pair targeting 1.3700. The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation, and the Trade Balance. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates. The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. #CanadianDollar #UsPmi #EconomicData #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #OilPrice #Inflation #TradeBalance https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-grinds-out-meager-recovery-ahead-of-tuesdays-us-pmi-figures-202404221654

Forex week ahead: US GDP, BoJ and core PCE inflation ========== This week's main events in the forex market include the release of US GDP data, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting, and the release of the core PCE inflation figure. Economists expect the US GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 to be 2.5%, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter. The BoJ is expected to leave rates unchanged after a previous rate hike failed to strengthen the Yen. The core PCE inflation figure, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, will be closely watched. A higher-than-expected figure could weigh on markets, while a lower figure would be welcome. The US figures this week will shape the Fed's decision next week, and the BoJ may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration. #Forex #UsGdp #BankOfJapan #CorePceInflation https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/three-fundamentals-for-the-week-us-gdp-boj-and-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-stand-out-202404221237

Will US GDP boost the Dollar Index? [Video] ========== The article discusses the potential impact of the US GDP release on the Dollar Index. The preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter is expected on Thursday, with the possibility of a higher-than-anticipated figure. The Atlanta GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% compared to the forecast of 2.4%. On Friday, the core PCE for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. The article also mentions the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and the Eurozone flash PMIs. The USD/JPY pair has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77, while EUR/USD is moving sideways after rebounding from a five-month low. The services PMI in the Eurozone is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April. #UsGdp #DollarIndex #Usd/jpy #BojDecision #EurozoneFlashPmis #Eur/usd https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-us-gdp-boost-the-dollar-index-video-202404220953

Will US GDP boost the Dollar Index? [Video] ========== The article discusses the potential impact of the US GDP release on the Dollar Index. The preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter is expected on Thursday, with the possibility of a higher-than-anticipated figure. The Atlanta GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% compared to the forecast of 2.4%. On Friday, the core PCE for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. The article also mentions the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and the Eurozone flash PMIs. The USD/JPY pair has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77, while EUR/USD is moving sideways after rebounding from a five-month low. The services PMI in the Eurozone is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April. #UsGdp #DollarIndex #Usd/jpy #BojDecision #EurozoneFlashPmis #Eur/usd https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-us-gdp-boost-the-dollar-index-video-202404220953

USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9100 amid hawkish Fed remarks ========== The USD/CHF pair is trading on a positive note, supported by lower rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several Fed officials prefer to wait longer than previously expected to cut rates due to high inflation readings. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability. The pair's upside may be capped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The highlights for the week include the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for Q1 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The pair is currently trading near 0.9115. #Usd/chf #FederalReserve #SwissNationalBank #Inflation #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-gathers-strength-above-09100-amid-hawkish-fed-remarks-202404220653

USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9100 amid hawkish Fed remarks ========== The USD/CHF pair is trading on a positive note, supported by lower rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several Fed officials prefer to wait longer than previously expected to cut rates due to high inflation readings. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability. The pair's upside may be capped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The highlights for the week include the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for Q1 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The pair is currently trading near 0.9115. #Usd/chf #FederalReserve #SwissNationalBank #Inflation #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-gathers-strength-above-09100-amid-hawkish-fed-remarks-202404220653

US house passes military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan ========== The US House of Representatives has passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The Senate, controlled by the Democrats, is expected to vote on the bill on Tuesday. The bill aims to provide military aid to these countries and is seen as a response to the ongoing tensions with Russia and China. The passage of the bill reflects the US commitment to supporting its allies in the face of geopolitical challenges. #UsHouseOfRepresentatives #MilitaryAid #Ukraine #Israel #Taiwan https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-house-passes-military-aid-bill-to-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan-202404220556

US house passes military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan ========== The US House of Representatives has passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The Senate, controlled by the Democrats, is expected to vote on the bill on Tuesday. The bill aims to provide military aid to these countries and is seen as a response to the ongoing tensions with Russia and China. The passage of the bill reflects the US commitment to supporting its allies in the face of geopolitical challenges. #UsHouseOfRepresentatives #MilitaryAid #Ukraine #Israel #Taiwan https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-house-passes-military-aid-bill-to-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan-202404220556

Dollar-Yen soars to fresh 34-year peak – BoJ’s Ueda warns on weak JPY ========== The Dollar-Yen pair reached a fresh 34-year peak at 154.68, the highest since June 1990. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on strong economic data, including a Manufacturing Index of 15.5 and Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefits falling to 212K. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 106.15, a 5-month high. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) slid to 0.6420 after weak employment data, while the Euro (EUR/USD) dipped to 1.0645 due to dovish comments from ECB officials. Sterling (GBP/USD) eased to 1.2435. Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda warned that the central bank may raise interest rates if the Yen's decline significantly increases inflation. The Dollar Index is expected to be closely watched ahead of key Eurozone and US data releases. #Dollaryen #BankOfJapan #Us10yearTreasuryYield #DollarIndex #AustralianDollar #Euro #Sterling https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-yen-soars-to-fresh-34-year-peak-bojs-ueda-warns-on-weak-jpy-202404220500

Dollar-Yen soars to fresh 34-year peak – BoJ’s Ueda warns on weak JPY ========== The Dollar-Yen pair reached a fresh 34-year peak at 154.68, the highest since June 1990. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on strong economic data, including a Manufacturing Index of 15.5 and Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefits falling to 212K. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 106.15, a 5-month high. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) slid to 0.6420 after weak employment data, while the Euro (EUR/USD) dipped to 1.0645 due to dovish comments from ECB officials. Sterling (GBP/USD) eased to 1.2435. Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda warned that the central bank may raise interest rates if the Yen's decline significantly increases inflation. The Dollar Index is expected to be closely watched ahead of key Eurozone and US data releases. #Dollaryen #BankOfJapan #Us10yearTreasuryYield #DollarIndex #AustralianDollar #Euro #Sterling https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-yen-soars-to-fresh-34-year-peak-bojs-ueda-warns-on-weak-jpy-202404220500

Japanese Yen remains pinned near multi-decade low against USD ========== The Japanese Yen remains near a multi-decade low against the USD. The uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) further policy tightening and easing fears about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are key factors undermining the JPY. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish rhetoric and warnings by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki against excessive currency market moves help limit deeper JPY losses. Traders are reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the crucial policy decision on Friday. Reduced Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the USD and lend support to USD/JPY. Data released on Friday showed that Japan's consumer inflation eased more than expected in March, raising uncertainty about whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again and weighing on the Japanese Yen. Iran's lack of plans to retaliate against the Israeli missile strike helps improve investors' appetite for riskier assets and further dents the JPY's safe-haven status. Fed funds futures suggest that the Federal Reserve is now anticipated to cut interest rates by roughly 40 basis points (bps), or less than two cuts this year starting September. The large rate differential between the US and Japan is expected to stay, acting as a headwind for the JPY and lending support to the USD/JPY pair. The focus will remain on the quarterly outlook report in the upcoming BoJ monetary policy decision. Important US macro data, including the Advance Q1 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released this week and influence the US Dollar price dynamics. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating near a multi-decade high, with slightly overbought RSI, suggesting bullish potential. The range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase, and any meaningful corrective pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity. The multi-decade high around the 154.75-154.80 region could act as an immediate hurdle, and a sustained strength beyond the 155.00 psychological mark will confirm a fresh breakout through the short-term trading range. #JapaneseYen #Usd #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-pinned-near-multi-decade-low-against-usd-202404220215

Weekly economic and financial commentary ========== The article provides a summary of the economic and financial events that occurred during the week. In the United States, robust retail sales data, industrial production, and jobless claims indicate a strong economy. Internationally, tension between Israel and Iran continues, and inflation in England is easing. President Biden proposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, but the effects of tariffs on Chinese-imported goods on U.S. industrial production have been marginal in the past. The article also provides information on trading risks in a fast market and the importance of placing limit orders to limit risk. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs gained traction, while gold stabilized. Bitcoin's post-halving rally may be partially priced in, and the upcoming week will see important economic data releases and the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates. #EconomicData #RetailSales #IndustrialProduction #JoblessClaims #IsraeliranTensions #Inflation #Tariffs #TradingRisks #CurrencyPairs #Gold #Bitcoin #EconomicCalendar #BankOfJapan https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary-202404191739

US Dollar sees slight Friday downfall as buyer momentum dwindles ========== The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 106.09, a mild loss from its recent peak of 106.35. The index remains geared toward testing its November 1 high of 107.10. Middle East tensions and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) may drive demand back to the USD. The US economy exhibits robust growth with persistent inflation, triggering a rally of US Treasury yields and benefiting the US Dollar. Higher Middle East tensions cultivate risk-off sentiment, affecting global markets. For the next Fed meeting, signs show some officials considering rate hikes, a major departure from the previous intentions of rate cuts. The US Treasury bond yields are falling but remain near multi-month highs. The DXY's position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) indicates that bulls still have control over the overall trend. #UsDollar #Dxy #FederalReserve #MiddleEastTensions #Inflation #UsTreasuryYields https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-sees-slight-friday-downfall-as-buyer-momentum-dwindles-202404191642

Canadian Dollar extends recovery amid an easing risk aversion ========== The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading higher for the third consecutive session on Friday and is on track for a moderate weekly recovery after a sharp sell-off over the previous two weeks. A softer US Dollar in the absence of key macroeconomic data and easing fears about the Middle East conflict are contributing to the Loonie’s recovery. Investors seem to have come to terms with the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay and scale down its monetary easing plans, which is allowing some take-profit for the US Dollar. Chicago President Austen Goolsbee has reiterated the lack of progress on inflation, but the impact on the US Dollar has been marginal. Furthermore, the Iranian authorities have played down rumours about a drone attack by Israel. With no further threat to an escalation of the conflict, the immediate risk aversion has gradually eased, which is good for the CAD. #CanadianDollar #RiskAversion #Recovery #UsDollar #FederalReserve #Inflation #MiddleEastConflict https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-picks-up-as-geopolitical-concerns-ease-202404191559

US Dollar Forecast: Safe-haven inflows, hawkish Fed keep the momentum alive ========== The US Dollar (USD) is forecasted to maintain its momentum due to safe-haven inflows and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). The USD Index (DXY) encountered resistance near 106.50 and investors now expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Hawkish Fedspeak and solid US economic data support a delay in cutting interest rates. The upcoming Q1 GDP figures will be important next week. The USD Index (DXY) could potentially reach the 2024 high at 106.51 and even the November top at 107.11. On the downside, the April bottom at 103.88 is supported by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.93. The Fed's rhetoric indicates a decreased likelihood of rate cuts, with policymakers advocating for prolonging the current restrictive stance. The ECB and BoE are expected to cut rates in the summer, while the Fed and RBA are expected to begin their easing cycles later this year. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier. The author does not provide personalized recommendations and the information should not be considered investment advice. #UsDollar #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-dollar-weekly-forecast-holding-up-gains-amid-hawkish-fed-geopolitical-tensions-202404191449

Gold Forecast: Middle-East tensions keep bids high ========== Gold (XAU/USD) price fluctuated in a relatively narrow range this week following the record-setting rally. Gold benefited from safe-haven flows and gathered bullish momentum at the beginning of the week as markets reacted to news of Iran launching an assault over the weekend, with dozens of drones and missiles in retaliation to the suspected Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1. Gold gained more than 1.5% on Monday and registered its highest daily close on record. Meanwhile, the data from the US showed that [something] rose 0.7% on a monthly basis in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.3% but XAU/USD ignored the renewed US Dollar (USD) strength. Market participants will stay focused on geopolitics next week. A de-escalation of the Iran-Israel crisis could trigger a downward correction in XAU/USD and cause the market focus to shift to the US data. On the other hand, another retaliatory response by Iran could revive fears over a deepening crisis in the Middle East and allow Gold to continue to capitalize on safe-haven demand. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter. In case the US economy posts a stronger-than-forecast annualized growth, the USD could hold its ground and weigh on XAU/USD. Since the beginning of April, Gold has been ignoring rising US yields and the broad USD strength. If geopolitics finally move to the back burner, Gold could come under bearish pressure, with investors adjusting their positions to growing expectations for a Fed policy hold in June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a less than 20% chance the Fed will lower the policy rate by 25 basis points in June. On Friday, the BEA will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, for March. Thursday’s GDP report will include the PCE Price Index data for the first quarter. Hence, Friday’s PCE reading will not offer any surprises and is unlikely to trigger a market reaction. Moreover, Fed Chairman Powell said that the annual core PCE inflation was little changed in March, according to their estimates. #Gold #Xau/usd #Geopolitics #IranisraelConflict #UsData https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-will-geopolitics-continue-to-drive-xau-usd-202404191409