Australian Dollar depreciates despite improved Consumer Confidence, US Dollar remains calm ========== The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreats after posting gains in the previous two sessions, despite the release of improved Australia Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index surged 6.2% to 86 in February from 81 in January, marking its highest reading in 20 months. However, the index remained below the neutral 100 mark since February 2022. The depreciation of the Australian Dollar is attributed to the moderation of Australian inflation, leading to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has completed its monetary tightening cycle. The US Dollar (USD) remains calm, with market sentiment mixed ahead of the release of important US inflation data scheduled for Tuesday. #AustralianDollar #UsDollar #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #ReserveBankOfAustralia #MarketSentiment https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-depreciates-despite-improved-consumer-confidence-us-dollar-remains-calm-202402130147

Five fundamentals for the week: US CPI overtowers (almost) everything ========== The article discusses five key fundamentals for the week, focusing on the impact of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the market. The absence of Chinese traders due to the Lunar New Year holiday is expected to have a positive impact on markets. The US CPI data, including Core CPI MoM and headline CPI YoY, will be closely watched as it will affect various assets such as gold, equities, and the US dollar. UK inflation data is also expected to have a global impact. The US Retail Sales report and US Consumer Sentiment survey will provide further insights into the state of the US economy. #UsCpi #MarketImpact #ChineseHoliday #UkInflation #UsRetailSales #UsConsumerSentiment https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/five-fundamentals-for-the-week-us-cpi-overtowers-almost-everything-202402121246

Gold price on February 12: Rates in main Indian cities ========== Gold prices fell in India on February 12, with the price standing at 62,147 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 240 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 62,337 per 10 grams. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey quickly increasing their gold reserves. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. The price of gold is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. #Gold #India #Price #Mcx #FuturesContracts #CentralBanks https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202402120909

Gold price on February 12: Rates in main Indian cities ========== Gold prices fell in India on February 12, with the price standing at 62,147 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 240 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 62,337 per 10 grams. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey quickly increasing their gold reserves. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. The price of gold is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. #Gold #India #Price #Mcx #FuturesContracts #CentralBanks https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202402120909

Australian Dollar extends its gains due to improved risk appetite amid a subdued US Dollar ========== The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground due to improved risk appetite and a weakening US Dollar (USD). The AUD/USD pair is being weighed down by the subdued USD, despite stable US Treasury yields. The rise in Chinese New Loans may provide additional support for the Australian Dollar. However, the Australian money market is trending lower, disregarding a record surge in US markets. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial US inflation data that could impact interest rate expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged positive trends in recent inflation data but stressed the need for continued progress. Chinese New Loans data showed a record high, but concerns about deflation in China are dampening sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining amid a risk-on sentiment in the market. The US CPI data for January is expected to show a moderation to 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan stated that there is currently no pressing need to lower interest rates. The Australian Dollar is hovering around 0.6520, below the immediate barrier of the nine-day EMA at 0.6530. Key support is expected at 0.6500, while key resistance is at 0.6550. The AUD/USD pair is influenced by factors such as interest rates set by the RBA, the price of Iron Ore, the health of the Chinese economy, inflation in Australia, and market sentiment. The RBA's decisions impact the AUD by setting interest rates, while the health of the Chinese economy affects the AUD as China is Australia's largest trading partner. The price of Iron Ore is a driver of the AUD, as higher prices increase demand for the currency. The Trade Balance, which is the difference between exports and imports, also influences the value of the AUD. The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6520 in the Asian session, with a focus on risk sentiment and the upcoming US CPI data. #AustralianDollar #UsDollar #RiskAppetite #UsInflationData https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-extends-its-gains-due-to-improved-risk-appetite-amid-a-subdued-us-dollar-202402120147

EUR/USD Forecast: Sellers aligned ahead of 1.0800 ========== The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0788 early on Thursday, turning south mid-European session and currently trading in the 1.0750 price zone. The US Dollar finds support in firmer US government bond yields, holds within familiar levels. The European Central Bank Economic Bulletin repeated the well-known message of higher for longer. EUR/USD met sellers ahead of 1.0800, aims to extend its slide below 1.0700. The European Central Bank (ECB) released the Economic Bulletin, usually published two weeks after the central bank’s meeting. The document showed the Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner, adding the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. The upcoming American session will bring the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 2 and December Wholesale Inventories. Additionally, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires, and speculative interest will pay close attention to their comments in search of fresh clues. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair seems poised to extend its decline. The daily chart shows it met sellers around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 20 SMA maintains its firmly bearish slope above it. Also, the pair flirted with the weekly high and was unable to extend its rally, suggesting unconvinced buyers. Finally, technical indicators turned lower within negative levels, in line with resurgent selling interest. For the near term, the 4-hour chart supports the bearish case. Technical indicators rotated sharply lower, retaining their bearish slopes. Particularly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator anticipates further slides, as it currently stands at 41 without signs of bearish exhaustion. At the same time, EUR/USD is currently extending its slide below the 20 SMA, which formerly offered support. A steeper decline could be expected once the pair slides below 1.0720. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast-sellers-aligned-ahead-of-10800-202402081254

EUR/USD remains capped near 100-day SMA amid emergence of USD dip-buying ========== The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains back closer to the 1.0800 mark, a fresh weekly high, and turns neutral during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Expectations for an interest rate cut at the start of the second quarter have been growing stronger, undermining the Euro. The USD Index (DXY) has stalled its retracement slide from the highest level since November 14 amid the Federal Reserve's less dovish outlook. The markets are still pricing in five rate cuts over the course of the seven remaining FOMC policy meetings this year. Traders now look to the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which, along with scheduled speeches by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, might provide some impetus. The market focus remains glued to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due next week. #Eur/usd #UsdDip-buying #InterestRateCut #UsdIndex #FederalReserve #FomcPolicyMeetings #UsWeeklyInitialJoblessClaims #RichmondFedPresidentThomasBarkin #UsConsumerInflation https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-remains-capped-near-100-day-sma-amid-emergence-of-usd-dip-buying-202402080953

USD/JPY Outlook: Bulls look to seize near-term control, move beyond 148.80 hurdle awaited ========== The USD/JPY pair is gaining positive traction for the second successive day, with bulls looking to move beyond the 148.80 resistance level. The momentum is supported by the dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the underlying bullish sentiment in global equity markets. Investors believe that wage growth in Japan may outpace that of 2023, leading to the exit of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the USD's lackluster performance and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate cut path may cap any significant appreciation in the USD/JPY pair. Traders are awaiting the release of US economic data and speeches by central bank officials for further direction. #Usd/jpy #Forex #BankOfJapan #EquityMarkets #WageGrowth #FederalReserve https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-outlook-bulls-look-to-seize-near-term-control-move-beyond-14880-hurdle-awaited-202402080737

Asian stocks track Wall Street higher, Japan’s Nikkei leads gains ========== Asian stocks are tracking Wall Street higher, with Japan's Nikkei leading the gains. Most Asian stocks are edging higher following the S&P 500 closing at a record high. China's Shanghai is up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.08%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.26%, South Korea's Kospi is up 0.16%, India's NIFTY 50 is down 0.86%, and Japan's Nikkei is up 1.91%. Japan's December current account balance was lower than expected, with a surplus of 744.3 billion yen compared to the expected surplus of 1.02 trillion yen. In China, policymakers plan to bolster markets ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The Chinese economy is facing deflationary pressures, and officials are under pressure to take more measures to boost the economy. In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) also left its benchmark interest rate steady. Mainland Chinese stock markets will be closed on Friday for the Lunar New Year and will reopen on Monday. #AsianStocks #WallStreet #Japan'sNikkei #ChineseStimulusMeasures https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-track-wall-street-higher-japans-nikkei-leads-gains-202402080700

BoJ’s Uchida: Future rate path depends on economic, price developments at the time ========== Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the future rate path of the BoJ depends on economic and price developments at the time. The focus will be on the pace of increase in inflation expectations and the degree of price dynamism, including wages. The BoJ will determine whether conditions have fallen into place to shift policy and then consider the most appropriate means and sequence to do so. Uchida emphasized that terminating Yield Curve Control (YCC) does not mean the BoJ will suddenly stop bond buying. The decision to expand or scale back the balance sheet will depend on economic developments at the time. Uchida also mentioned that rising prices leading to higher wage growth and the outcome of this year's annual wage negotiation will be crucial factors in judging whether a positive economic cycle will kick off. The likelihood of sustained achievement of the 2% inflation target is gradually heightening. Uchida did not comment on market perceptions of the future rate path. The fate of the BoJ's overshooting commitment will be decided once sustained achievement of the 2% inflation target comes into sight. The government and the BoJ share a common understanding in guiding policy, and wage growth is essential for sustainable 2% inflation. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 148.64, up 0.30% on the day. #BankOfJapan #InterestRates #EconomicDevelopments #PriceDynamics #Inflation #WageGrowth https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-uchida-future-rate-path-depends-on-economic-price-developments-at-the-time-202402080600

USD/INR weakens ahead of RBI rate decision ========== The Indian Rupee (INR) is trading stronger against the US Dollar (USD) and US bond yields are lower. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the key interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth consecutive time. Traders are awaiting the RBI interest rate decision along with the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and a speech by Fed's Barkin. The RBI governor will announce the bi-monthly monetary policy, which is anticipated to maintain a status quo on the key interest rate. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to keep the repo rate steady at 6.5% as inflation approaches the upper tolerance level of 6%. The RBI raised its economic growth forecast to 7% from 6.5% due to positive signs in the Indian economy. The RBI interest rate decision will be followed by attention on Indian inflation data and Industrial Production. The Indian Rupee is sensitive to external factors such as the price of crude oil, the value of the US Dollar, and foreign investment. The decisions of the RBI and macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, economic growth rate, and the balance of trade also influence the value of the Indian Rupee. The USD/INR pair has traded within a descending trend channel of 82.70-83.20 and maintains a bearish outlook in the short term. The US Dollar price today shows a mixed performance against major currencies. The Indian Rupee is influenced by factors such as the price of crude oil, the value of the US Dollar, foreign investment, and the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India. Inflation impacts the Indian Rupee, with higher inflation generally being negative for the currency. The author and FXStreet do not provide personalized recommendations and the information provided is for informational purposes only. #Usd/inr #Rbi #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicGrowth #CrudeOil #UsDollar https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-weakens-ahead-of-rbi-rate-decision-202402080358

Australian Dollar remains calm after subdued Chinese CPI, US Dollar remains stable ========== The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers its recent losses on Thursday, buoyed by a risk-on sentiment in the market. The US Dollar (USD) faces challenges despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) emphasizing its commitment to keeping interest rates elevated until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target. The Australian currency is strengthened as RBA’s Bullock did not rule anything in or out regarding future policy actions. Chinese CPI (YoY) declined by 0.8% against the anticipated decline of 0.5% and the previous decline of 0.3%. The Australian Dollar is bolstered by hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock following the interest rate decision on Tuesday. The RBA opted to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.3% MoM in January, falling short of the expected 0.4%. However, it has been improved from the previous reading of 0.1%. The annual CPI declined by 0.8%, exceeding the anticipated decline of 0.5% and the previous decline of 0.3%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its downward trend for the third consecutive session, pressured by a correction in US Treasury yields. Federal Reserve Chair dismissed the possibility of a rate cut in March. Australian Dollar price today: The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6530 on Thursday, slightly below the immediate resistance level at 0.6550. A breakthrough above this level could potentially catalyze further upward movement for the AUD/USD pair, with potential targets including the 23.6% retracement level at 0.6563 and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6579. On the downside, key support is anticipated at the psychological level of 0.6500. Additional support levels include the weekly low at 0.6468, followed by a major support level at 0.6450. #AustralianDollar #UsDollar #ChineseCpi #Rba #FederalReserve #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-calm-after-subdued-chinese-cpi-us-dollar-remains-stable-202402080153

Stock Market Today: US stocks set for a mixed opening as investors await key earnings reports ========== US stock index futures trade mixed ahead of Wall Street's opening bell on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.06%, Dow Jones futures drop 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures are unchanged. Enphase Energy INC (ENPH) was the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, gaining more than 13% on a daily basis. Kroger (KR), KLA Tencor Corp. and Fiserv Inc. shares were the biggest losers Tuesday, falling more than 2%. The US Census Bureau will release Goods Trade Balance data for December on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve will publish Consumer Credit Change later in the day, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will also be speaking. Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (BABA) reported Q3 adjusted net income of RMB 47,951 million and Q3 revenue of RMB 260,348 million on Wednesday. Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) announced Q4 net income of $1.4 billion and Q4 gross bookings of $37.6 billion. Walt Disney Company (DIS), ARM Holdings PLC (ARM), and Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) are among top companies scheduled to announce earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday that the central bank made the right choice last week to maintain interest rates steady amid an outlook that likely heralds more inflation declines. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 21.5% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in March. #UsStocks #EarningsReports #S&p500 #DowJones #Nasdaq #EnphaseEnergy #Kroger #KlaTencorCorp. #FiservInc. #UsCensusBureau #FederalReserve #AlibabaGroupHoldings #UberTechnologies #WaltDisneyCompany #ArmHoldingsPlc #PaypalHoldings #FederalReserveBankOfPhiladelphia #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-stocks-set-for-a-mixed-opening-as-investors-await-key-earnings-reports-202402071235

EUR/USD remains below 100-day SMA despite hawkish ECB comments, softer USD ========== EUR/USD strengthens in reaction to hawkish comments by ECB Governing Council Member Isabel Schnabel, offsetting disappointing German macroeconomic data. The pair is also supported by hopes for a de-escalation of the crisis in the Middle East. However, the USD remains resilient due to expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Traders are awaiting the release of US Trade Balance data and speeches by influential FOMC members for short-term impetus. #Eur/usd #Ecb #Usd #GermanMacroeconomicData #MiddleEastCrisis #Fed #UsTradeBalance https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-remains-below-100-day-sma-despite-hawkish-ecb-comments-softer-usd-202402070953

EUR/GBP declines toward 0.8530 as ECB rate-cut bets deepen ========== The EUR/GBP pair falls sharply to near 0.8530 on December's downbeat German Industrial Production data. The industrial output of Germany was down at a sharp pace of 1.6% monthly, while market participants projected a decline of 0.6%. In November, the economic data was contracted by 0.2%. This has deepened the chances of early rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Cos is confident about inflation declining towards the 2% target. However, ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel warned that early rate cuts could flare up price pressures again. On the other hand, UK companies are becoming optimistic about the Bank of England's (BoE) rate-cut prospects amid easing price pressures. The Pound Sterling performs better against the Euro as the economic prospects of the United Kingdom's economy are improving again. #Eur/gbp #Ecb #RateCuts #GermanIndustrialProduction #Inflation #BankOfEngland https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-declines-toward-08530-as-ecb-rate-cut-bets-deepen-202402070841

Strong US data suggest EUR/USD could keep struggling in the near term – SocGen ========== The Eurozone economy is operating below potential, unlike the US. European rates have corrected with US rates, but to a lesser extent. The Euro 5y IRS is up 7 bps since Friday compared to 30 bps for the US. The widening of the spread is driving the new low in EUR/USD. It remains to be seen if the pair can reclaim 1.0780 and repeat the price action of last December when the Fed sparked Dollar profit taking. Strong US data suggest EUR/USD could keep struggling in the near term. #Eur/usd #ForexMarket #UsData #EurozoneEconomy https://www.fxstreet.com/news/strong-us-data-suggest-eur-usd-could-keep-struggling-in-the-near-term-socgen-202402070858

Pound Sterling revives on improved market sentiment ========== The Pound Sterling (GBP) shows some bullish moves in the European session on Wednesday as the appeal for risk-perceived assets has improved significantly. The GBP/USD rebounds strongly despite increasing prospects of early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). The UK’s construction and service sectors have rebounded as prospects of rate cuts by the BoE have deepened amid easing price pressures. The US Dollar (USD) has come under pressure despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) now expecting not to rush rate cuts amid a resilient labor market and retail demand. Pound Sterling has extended its upside above 1.2600 as the United Kingdom's economic prospects improve despite the Bank of England (BoE) maintaining interest rates in the restrictive trajectory. The odds of early rate cuts by the BoE escalated after a dovish guidance on interest rates by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. The Pound Sterling is the oldest currency in the world and the official currency of the United Kingdom. The Bank of England's decisions on monetary policy have a significant impact on the value of the Pound Sterling. Economic data releases and the trade balance also influence the value of the Pound. The Pound Sterling is currently trading above 1.0750 against the Euro (EUR) and defending 1.2600 against the US Dollar (USD). #PoundSterling #BankOfEngland #UkEconomy #UsDollar https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-rises-amid-improvement-in-investors-risk-appetite-202402070800

Fed Chair Powell channels Ben Bernanke, assures us everything is fine! ========== During a 60 Minutes interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured that the problems in the commercial real estate market are manageable and not a risk to the broader banking system. This assurance is reminiscent of former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's statements in 2007 that the problems in the subprime mortgage sector were contained. However, the subsequent financial crisis proved otherwise. The article raises concerns about the potential for history to repeat itself. #FederalReserve #CommercialRealEstate #FinancialCrisis #JeromePowell #BenBernanke https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-chair-powell-channels-ben-bernanke-assures-us-everything-is-fine-202402062001

USD/INR trades flat on the weaker US Dollar, RBI rate decision eyed ========== The Indian Rupee (INR) is trading flat against the US Dollar (USD) despite the weaker USD. India's services sector expanded at its fastest rate in six months, with the S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surging to 61.8 in January. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision on Thursday will be the highlight of the week. The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The Indian economy has shown resilience amid high inflation and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The OECD raised India's growth outlook for 2024-25 to 6.2%. The Indian government plans to trim the budget deficit to less than 4.5% by FY26. Technical analysis suggests that the USD/INR pair is in a descending trend channel, with support at 82.70 and resistance at 83.20. The US ISM Services PMI rose to 53.4 in January. The US Dollar price today shows a mixed performance against major currencies. The key factors driving the Indian Rupee include the price of crude oil, the value of the US Dollar, and foreign investment. The decisions of the RBI and macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, GDP, and the balance of trade also influence the value of the Rupee. Higher inflation is generally negative for the currency, but higher interest rates can be positive. The US economic outlook continues to improve. #Usd/inr #IndianRupee #UsDollar #Rbi #InterestRateDecision https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-trades-flat-on-the-weaker-us-dollar-rbi-rate-decision-eyed-202402060401

Mexican Peso climbs against US Dollar, despite high US Treasury yields ========== The Mexican Peso (MXN) is climbing against the US Dollar (USD) despite high US Treasury yields. The USD/MXN is trading at 17.08, down 0.28%. Mexico's economic docket for the week includes inflation data and the upcoming rate decision by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Expectations lean towards Banxico holding rates at 11.25%. The US economy continues to show strength with the release of strong Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls data, indicating a soft landing for the Federal Reserve. Banxico meets eight times a year and its monetary policy is influenced by the decisions of the US Federal Reserve. The USD/MXN is currently neutral-biased, with resistance at 17.20 and support at 17.03. The Bank of Mexico's main tool to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates, which can influence the value of the Mexican Peso. The rate differential with the USD is a key factor. The author of the article has no position in any stock mentioned and no business relationship with any company mentioned. #MexicanPeso #UsDollar #UsTreasuryYields #BankOfMexico #FederalReserve https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-slides-amid-powells-hawkish-comments-202402051707