Asian equities recover on reduced EU political tensions and fresh US index highs ========== Asian equities recover on reduced EU political tensions and fresh US index highs. After a risk-off day yesterday, Asian markets took comfort today in EU markets settling down somewhat from worries related to France's political turmoil that engulfed trading last week. US broad-based gains in Nasdaq and S&P500 overnight also provided a boost. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold, reiterating not to rule anything 'in or out'. Australian weekly consumer confidence rebounded as tax cuts and wage hikes come into view for consumers. However, New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Confidence fell back to its lowest level since Q3 2023. US equity futures were flat during Asian trading, following large rises in Nasdaq and S&P500 overnight. Looking ahead, the focus will be on US May advanced Retail Sales and May Industrial Production. Holidays in Asia this week include India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore on Monday, and Indonesia on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 opened +0.9%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, and Kospi +1.0%. The EUR/USD is trading between 1.0719-1.0741, USD/JPY between 157.51-157.74, AUD/USD between 0.6585-0.6622, and NZD/USD between 0.6114-0.6140. Gold is up 0.2% at $2,334/oz, and crude oil is down 0.2% at $79.57/barrel. #AsianEquities #EuPoliticalTensions #UsIndexHighs #Rba #ConsumerConfidence #UsRetailSales #UsIndustrialProduction #Nikkei225 #Asx200 #HangSeng #ShanghaiComposite #Kospi #Eur/usd #Usd/jpy #Aud/usd #Nzd/usd #Gold #CrudeOil https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asian-equities-recover-on-reduced-eu-political-tensions-and-fresh-us-index-highs-202406180541

Gold price remains confined in a familiar trading range above $2,300 mark ========== Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain traction and remains in a narrow trading range around $2,320. The Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook supports elevated US Treasury bond yields and attracts dip-buyers for the US Dollar, capping the upside for gold. The US macro data indicates easing inflationary pressures and speculation of two rate cuts by the Fed in September and December. Gold price remains within a familiar range and below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The USD strength and risk sentiment will play a role in determining the direction of gold. Technical analysis suggests immediate resistance at $2,333-2,336 and support at $2,300. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey increasing their reserves. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and its price depends on factors such as geopolitical instability, recession fears, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. The article provides a disclaimer that the information is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. #GoldPrice #FederalReserve #UsDollar #UsTreasuryBondYields #Inflation #RateCuts #MacroData #RiskSentiment #TechnicalAnalysis #CentralBanks https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-remains-confined-in-a-familiar-trading-range-above-2-300-mark-202406180216

Australian Dollar extends decline following mixed China’s economic data ========== The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends downside for the third consecutive day on Monday on the back of the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly. The Greenback remains well-supported by the expectation that US interest rates will stay higher for longer, with the median projection from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials calling for one interest rate cut this year. Furthermore, the latest mixed Chinese economic data and some challenges in China's economic operations might exert some selling pressure on the Aussie as China accounts for one-third of Australian exports. Investors will closely watch the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday, along with the Governor Michele Bullock press conference. The hawkish hold from the RBA could boost the AUD and cap the downside for AUD/USD in the near term. On the US docket, the Retail Sales for May will be released, which is expected to improve to 0.3% from 0% in April. #AustralianDollar #UsDollar #China #EconomicData #InterestRates #ReserveBankOfAustralia #RetailSales https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-extends-decline-following-mixed-chinas-economic-data-202406170320

Economic discontent and presidential solutions ========== The article discusses the nature of economic discontent and the potential solutions offered by presidential candidates. The author argues that complaints about the state of the economy and high inflation are misdirected, as objective measures show a reasonably healthy economy and improving inflation. The main source of dissatisfaction is affordability, with prices on goods like housing and food still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The author criticizes the idea that any candidate can quickly solve the affordability problem and evaluates the policy proposals of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Trump's policies, such as tax cuts, immigration reductions, and tariffs, are unlikely to address affordability and may raise prices. Biden's policies, including raising taxes on high earners and corporations, expanding protection for undocumented immigrants, and advocating for tariffs on certain products, may have a deflationary effect on prices. The author concludes that while Biden's policies may not necessarily mitigate frustration with affordability, Trump's policies are more likely to worsen the problem. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/economic-discontent-and-presidential-solutions-202406170040

Economic discontent and presidential solutions ========== The article discusses the nature of economic discontent and the potential solutions offered by presidential candidates. The author argues that complaints about the state of the economy and high inflation are misdirected, as objective measures show a reasonably healthy economy and improving inflation. The main source of dissatisfaction is affordability, with prices on goods like housing and food still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The author criticizes the idea that any candidate can quickly solve the affordability problem and evaluates the policy proposals of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Trump's policies, such as tax cuts, immigration reductions, and tariffs, are unlikely to address affordability and may raise prices. Biden's policies, including raising taxes on high earners and corporations, expanding protection for undocumented immigrants, and advocating for tariffs on certain products, may have a deflationary effect on prices. The author concludes that while Biden's policies may not necessarily mitigate frustration with affordability, Trump's policies are more likely to worsen the problem. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/economic-discontent-and-presidential-solutions-202406170040

Canadian Dollar struggles to recover ground as market sentiment pulls into the middle ========== The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found a thin recovery on Friday, gaining ground against most of its major currency peers and clawing back a scant tenth of a percent against the US Dollar (USD). Market sentiment has continued to drag throughout Friday's US session, pulling the CAD into middling bids against the Greenback. A missed in Canadian Manufacturing Sales was broadly brushed off, and an unexpected backslide in the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment is throwing a cautionary wrench in market sentiment to wrap up the trading week. Manufacturing and Wholesale Sales in Canada saw a milder recovery from recent contractions than expected, but market sentiment is largely focused elsewhere after the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low, and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked higher in June. #CanadianDollar #MarketSentiment #Manufacturing #Wholesale #UsConsumerSentiment https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-brushes-off-low-tier-data-misses-to-find-mild-recovery-on-friday-202406141803

Asia open: Ahead of FOMC, investors ride the hi-tech AI sugar rush ========== Asian markets are optimistic following Friday's tech-driven rally on Wall Street. The Japanese yen reached a new 34-year low of 158.40 per dollar after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Global equity markets received a boost from strong corporate earnings, fueled by optimistic forecasts for Alphabet and Microsoft. The Fed's preferred inflation metric, the March personal consumption expenditures price index, showed a 2.8% year-over-year increase. Real consumer spending remained robust in March, but real disposable personal income growth has slowed and the personal savings rate has dropped to 3.2%. The Fed Beige Book highlighted weak consumer discretionary spending and increasing price sensitivity among consumers. More U.S. borrowers are struggling to keep up with credit card and motor vehicle payments. The FOMC meeting is anticipated with a more restrained approach. The USD has struggled to sustain its upward trajectory against most G10 currencies. Crude oil prices have eased, but remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding global oil demand growth and OPEC+'s future production strategy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance has bolstered AUD/USD. EUR/USD trades on a stronger note. Gold price trades on a softer note. Ethereum fees have dropped to the lowest level since October. The week ahead includes the Fed meeting, US jobs report, Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers. #AsianMarkets #TechdrivenRally #JapaneseYen #InterestRates #CorporateEarnings #Inflation #ConsumerSpending #CreditCardDebt #MotorVehiclePayments #FomcMeeting #Usd #CrudeOilPrices #Aud/usd #Eur/usd #GoldPrice #EthereumFees #FedMeeting #UsJobsReport #EurozoneGdp #EurozoneCpi https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asia-open-ahead-of-fomc-investors-ride-the-hi-tech-ai-sugar-rush-202404290041

Euro gains against the Dollar amid mixed economic signals ========== The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0707 on Wednesday, driven by increased local and the belief that the currency was significantly oversold against the US dollar. Sales of new homes in March showed a robust increase of 8.8% month-on-month, climbing to 693,000 from February’s 637,000, surpassing expectations. The year-on-year comparison also reflected strength with an 8.3% increase. The weighted average price of a sold house in the US rose to USD 524.8 thousand from USD 488.6 thousand in February, pointing to a market that is still vibrant despite elevated interest rates. Continued activity in the housing market is likely to sustain inflationary pressures in the US for an extended period. As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at the current peak of 5.5% per annum, the EUR/USD will likely retain its strength. Any current weakening of the dollar is seen as a temporary adjustment rather than a trend reversal. #Eur/usd #ForexMarket #EconomicSignals #UsDollar #InterestRates #Inflation #HousingMarket https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-gains-against-the-dollar-amid-mixed-economic-signals-202404241230

Euro gains against the Dollar amid mixed economic signals ========== The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0707 on Wednesday, driven by increased local and the belief that the currency was significantly oversold against the US dollar. Sales of new homes in March showed a robust increase of 8.8% month-on-month, climbing to 693,000 from February’s 637,000, surpassing expectations. The year-on-year comparison also reflected strength with an 8.3% increase. The weighted average price of a sold house in the US rose to USD 524.8 thousand from USD 488.6 thousand in February, pointing to a market that is still vibrant despite elevated interest rates. Continued activity in the housing market is likely to sustain inflationary pressures in the US for an extended period. As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at the current peak of 5.5% per annum, the EUR/USD will likely retain its strength. Any current weakening of the dollar is seen as a temporary adjustment rather than a trend reversal. #Eur/usd #ForexMarket #EconomicSignals #UsDollar #InterestRates #Inflation #HousingMarket https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-gains-against-the-dollar-amid-mixed-economic-signals-202404241230

US Dollar recovers from PMI-related losses ========== The US Dollar is trying to recover after trading firmly in the red on Tuesday due to a miss on the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors. The US Dollar Index is heading back to 106.00 ahead of US Durable Goods data. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release on Friday will drive the next moves for the US Dollar. Durable Goods Orders data are due to be released, and after the PMIs disappointment, more downbeat numbers could extend doubts over the US exceptionalism. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.62%, near the low for this week. The US Dollar Index's recent rally broadly comes from the staggering US economy, which has been relentlessly printing positive economic numbers. On the upside, first 105.88 needs to be recovered again before targeting the high of April 16 at 106.52. On the downside, 105.12 and 104.60 should also act as support ahead of the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.35 and 104.05, respectively. #UsDollar #PmiData #DurableGoodsData https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-edges-up-paring-some-losses-from-pmi-data-miss-202404241041

US Dollar recovers from PMI-related losses ========== The US Dollar is trying to recover after trading firmly in the red on Tuesday due to a miss on the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors. The US Dollar Index is heading back to 106.00 ahead of US Durable Goods data. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release on Friday will drive the next moves for the US Dollar. Durable Goods Orders data are due to be released, and after the PMIs disappointment, more downbeat numbers could extend doubts over the US exceptionalism. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.62%, near the low for this week. The US Dollar Index's recent rally broadly comes from the staggering US economy, which has been relentlessly printing positive economic numbers. On the upside, first 105.88 needs to be recovered again before targeting the high of April 16 at 106.52. On the downside, 105.12 and 104.60 should also act as support ahead of the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.35 and 104.05, respectively. #UsDollar #PmiData #DurableGoodsData https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-edges-up-paring-some-losses-from-pmi-data-miss-202404241041

GBP/USD posts modest gains above 1.2450, BoE policymaker dampens hopes of summer rates cut ========== GBP/USD trades on a stronger note near 1.2450 amid softer USD on Wednesday. US flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI came in weaker than expectations in April. BoE’s Pill said inflation must be squeezed out of the UK economy and cautioned against cutting too soon. Business activity in the United States slowed in April to a four-month low. The Federal Reserve officials look for signs that the economy is ebbing enough to bring inflation down further. The speculation that the BoE will cut interest rates in summer declined as the UK chief economist reiterated the need for “restrictive” monetary policy. #Gbp/usd #Boe #InterestRates #Inflation https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-posts-modest-gains-above-12450-boe-policymaker-dampens-hopes-of-summer-rates-cut-202404232314

Dow Jones gains after US PMI miss reignites rate cut hopes ========== The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed on Tuesday after US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures softened unexpectedly, bringing broad-market hopes for an earlier-than-expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) back to the forefront. The US Manufacturing PMI slid to a four-month low of 49.9 on Tuesday, slipping back from the previous 51.9. The Services PMI also declined, falling to 50.9 from 51.7. Both PMI components were expected to tick upwards to 52.0. US GDP is currently projected to cool off to 2.5% for the first quarter on an annualized basis, while Friday’s Core PCE Price Index is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM in March. Despite broad-market gains for US equities, the Dow Jones remains tepid compared to the other mega indexes, with the DJIA gaining around seven-tenths of a percent. The Dow Jones is testing the 38,500.00 handle on Tuesday, with the day’s early low priced in at 38,206.51. The major equity index is up nearly eight-tenths of a percent on the day. #DowJones #UsPmi #RateCut #UsFederalReserve #Gdp #PcePriceIndex #Equities https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-climbs-after-deflated-us-pmi-sparks-renewed-rate-cut-hopes-202404231729

US Dollar dips following disappointing S&P PMI figures ========== The US Dollar (USD) is trading softly at 105.70 tallying daily losses on Tuesday's session. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.9 in April's flash estimate, indicating slower private sector growth in the US from March's 52.1. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI demonstrated a more noticeable drop from March's 51.9 to 49.9 in April, suggesting a contraction in US manufacturing sector activity. Similarly, April's S&P Global Services PMI decreased from 51.7 to 50.9. The weak PMIs made the USD face selling pressure. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been sending a consistently hawkish message, which might limit the Greenback’s losses as markets delay the start of the easing cycle. PCE and GDP data later this week will likely fuel volatility in markets as they will continue shaping the expectation on the next Fed decisions. #UsDollar #S&pPmi #FederalReserve #Pce #Gdp https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-dips-following-disappointing-sp-pmi-figures-202404231559

Germany’s economic come back ========== Germany's service sector has led to a positive economic outlook, with the data for April showing strong expansion in the service sector PMIs for Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone. However, the manufacturing sector has contracted, with new orders and total new business falling. The employment situation in Germany's PMIs for April also showed contrasting fortunes for the service and manufacturing sectors, with the service sector adding employees and the manufacturing sector shedding staff. Inflation pressure appears to be moderating. Germany's economic recovery is dependent on the service sector and consumer spending, while the manufacturing sector remains weak. The stock market has reacted positively to the data, with the Dax leading the way in Europe. The outlook for the euro is positive, but there may be a cap on EUR/USD strength due to lower German bond yields. The immediate resistance for EUR/USD lies at $1.0700. The mid-cap stock index in Germany could outperform the large-cap Dax if the economic recovery continues. #Germany #Economy #ServiceSector #ManufacturingSector #Pmi #Recession #Employment #Inflation #StockMarket #Euro https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/germanys-economic-come-back-202404231009

Gold price on April 23: Rates in main Indian cities ========== Gold prices in India fell on April 23, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The price of gold stood at 71,357 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 1,354 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 70,500 per 10 grams from INR 71,197 per 10 grams. The decline in gold prices can be attributed to easing tensions in the Middle East and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Gold is widely seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. Central banks, particularly those in emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey, are the biggest buyers of gold. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and its price is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. Traders are also looking to economic data releases for further market direction. #Gold #India #Mcx #FuturesContracts #MiddleEast #FederalReserve #InterestRates #UsDollar #UsTreasuries #GeopoliticalInstability https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202404230811

On today’s US side of the equation we get April PMI’s ========== Today, the focus is on the release of April PMI confidence indicators in the US and the Eurozone. The consensus bar is set low due to the current dire economic situation, with expectations of slight improvements in manufacturing and services sectors. The German Bundesbank suggests that Germany may have avoided a winter recession, but the economic situation remains weak. If the PMI data matches or exceeds expectations, it could push yields through resistance levels. The US Treasury is also starting its end-of-month refinancing operation with a record volume $69bn 2-year Note auction. The Japanese yen is not affected by verbal interventions warning or calls for a less easy monetary policy by the BoJ. The BoJ is set to give a new economic assessment on Friday. The UK PMI data and speeches by BoE officials are also being closely watched. The EUR/USD pair remains weak ahead of the Eurozone PMI data. ECB Villeroy states that the central bank cannot be the solution to the funding of the green transition and that private sources should provide the main part of the financing. Czech central bank policymaker Holub believes there is no need for the CNB to accelerate the pace of rate cuts as the economy shows signs of a rebound. The CNB is expected to revise its growth forecast and keep the current pace of rate cuts at the next meeting. Gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand and lower expectations of Fed rate cuts. Pendle cryptocurrency sees a 10% price increase after Arthur Hayes' optimism on Pendle derivative exchange. Overall, the focus is on the PMI data releases and central bank actions in various countries. #Pmi #EconomicData #CentralBanks #Yields #UsTreasury #JapaneseYen #Eur/usd #Ecb #GreenTransition #Cnb #GoldPrice #Cryptocurrency https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/on-todays-us-side-of-the-equation-we-get-april-pmis-202404230631

Focus on April PMIs today ========== In the euro area, focus today will be on the euro area PMIs for April. The previous months' PMIs have shown a return of the two-speed economy with the service sector in expansionary territory and manufacturing sector stuck in contraction. We expect that service PMIs will remain above 50 as rising real wages and a strong labour market are supporting activity. The manufacturing PMIs will likely increase but stay below 50 as the global manufacturing cycle is slowly turning positive, inventory dynamics support production, and financial conditions have eased. We also keep an eye on PMIs from the UK. In Sweden, Riksbank governor Erik Thedéen gives a speech on and the current economy at 18.00 CET. The Hungarian National Bank will announce their rate decision following their rate setting meeting. We expect the bank to deliver a 50bp rate cut. If we are right, it will be the seventh cut since October last year. Tesla will deliver their Q1 earnings today, after Tesla fell 3.4% in yesterday's trading to record the seventh straight loss. #Pmis #EuroArea #ServiceSector #ManufacturingSector #Sweden #Hungary #Riksbank #RateDecision #Tesla #Earnings https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/focus-on-april-pmis-today-202404230604

Japanese Yen bounces off multi-decade low against USD, lacks follow-through ========== The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and recovers a major part of the previous day's losses to a fresh 34-year low, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Investors remain on alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the JPY. The upside potential, however, seems limited in the wake of expectations that the difference in rates between the US and Japan will stay wide for some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has indicated that it is in no rush in terms of policy normalization and is expected to wait until October before hiking interest rates again. In contrast, investors have been paring back their bets about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid sticky inflation. Hawkish expectations, meanwhile, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD). Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, along with other policymakers, said that they are watching currency moves closely and will respond as needed, providing some respite to the Japanese Yen. The flash PMIs released from Japan on Tuesday showed that overall business activity improved substantially at the beginning of the second quarter, albeit did little to impress the JPY bulls. The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI moved closer to breaking back into expansionary territory and improved from 48.2 to 49.9 in April – marking the strongest reading since June 2023. The gauge for the services sector came in at 54.6 for the reported month as compared to 54.1 in March, suggesting that demand remained strong despite weakness in other aspects of the economy. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest target unchanged on Friday and adopt a data-dependent approach in deciding the next interest rate hike amid uncertainties on whether wage hikes will broaden and drive up consumer prices. Traders now look to the flash US PMIs for some impetus, though the focus remains on the Advance US Q1 GDP on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. #JapaneseYen #Usd #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #InterestRates https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bounces-off-multi-decade-low-against-usd-lacks-follow-through-202404230147

USD/CAD trades on a softer note below 1.3700 ahead of US PMI data ========== USD/CAD is trading below 1.3700 and in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices dropped by 0.8% MoM in March. The downside of the pair might be capped by strong US economic data and the Fed's hawkish comments. Investors are waiting for the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later this week. Canadian Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. The decline of WTI prices exerts some selling pressure on the Canadian dollar. The high-for-longer rate narrative in the USD might lift the greenback against its rivals. The Core US PCE might offer some hints about the progress against inflation. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-trades-on-a-softer-note-below-13700-ahead-of-us-pmi-data-202404230125