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Bitcoin Fortress
bitcoinfortress@nostrplebs.com
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Bitcoin Fortress substack and podcast
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bitcoinfortress 2 months ago
🕊️ Bitcoin & Freedom “If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you.Sorry.” — Satoshi Nakamoto Freedom is one of those words everyone agrees on but few ever define. We talk about free speech, free markets, and free countries — yet most people live under a financial system where their savings can be frozen, seized, or debased without their consent. True freedom begins with financial sovereignty — the ability to own and control the product of your labor. Without that, every other freedom is built on sand. The Illusion of Choice Modern money isn’t neutral. It’s issued by central banks, controlled by politicians, and inflated by design. You can work harder each year, but your savings buy less. You can “own” assets, but they exist at the mercy of intermediaries who can deny access with a click. If your money depends on permission, you don’t really own it. The Invention of Freedom Money Then, in 2009, something remarkable happened. A pseudonymous coder named Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin — a decentralized, peer-to-peer monetary network that doesn’t rely on trust, governments, or banks. Bitcoin gave the world digital property rights for the first time in history. Anyone, anywhere, can store and send value directly — secured by math, not institutions. It’s an idea so radical that it quietly rewrote what freedom means in the digital age. Property Rights in the Information Age Bitcoin is the separation of money and state, just as the printing press separated church and state. It returns ownership to the individual — the ability to save wealth across time and space without approval, confiscation, or inflation. Your Bitcoin is yours. Not your bank’s. Not your government’s. Not anyone else’s. And because it’s open to everyone, it’s the first form of global, permissionless equality. Freedom of Transaction = Freedom of Speech Censorship-resistant money matters because speech and commerce are inseparable. When activists, journalists, or entrepreneurs are cut off from payment systems, their speech is effectively silenced. Bitcoin fixes that. It lets value flow freely, just like information on the internet. And every time someone uses it, they strengthen a network that can’t be censored, corrupted, or shut down. The Peaceful Revolution Bitcoin is not a rebellion of violence — it’s a revolution of choice. No one is forced to use it. Yet millions do, because it offers something governments never could: honest money and voluntary participation. In a world drowning in surveillance, debt, and political control, Bitcoin stands as a beacon of self-determination. A Future Worth Building Freedom isn’t free — it’s earned, protected, and rebuilt every generation. Today, the tools of freedom are digital, and Bitcoin is one of the most important of them all. It’s how we store our energy, defend our privacy, and say no to systems that exploit rather than empower. It’s how we build a future where people — not institutions — hold the keys. Bitcoin and freedom belong together. Because when you fix the money, you fix the world. Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework. I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2025. Thanks for following my work. Always remember: freedom, health and positivity! Please also check out my Bitcoin Fortress Podcast on all your favorite streaming platforms. I do a weekly Top Bitcoin News update every week on Sunday, focused on current items of interest to the Bitcoin community. Please check it out if you haven’t already. Also now on Fountain, where you can earn Bitcoin just for listening to your favorite podcasts. Also, check out my books on Amazon available in multiple formats: Bitcoin Fortress: A Simple Guide to Bitcoin for Beginners Bitcoin Retirement and Estate Planning The Bitcoin Lifestyle Follow me on Nostr: npub122fpu8lwu2eu2zfmrymcfed9tfgeray5quj78jm6zavj78phnqdsu3v4h5 If you’re looking for more great Bitcoin signal, check out friend of the show @Pleb Underground
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bitcoinfortress 2 months ago
🟧 A Primer on Bitcoin Technical and On-Chain Analysis Reading the Signals Beyond Price Bitcoin’s price is what most people focus on. But beneath that flashing number lies a transparent and permanent record of every transaction ever made — a goldmine of data that no other asset can match. For the thoughtful Bitcoin analyst, price is just the tip of the iceberg. Below it lies the blockchain — an open ledger that reveals investor behavior, miner confidence, and long-term sentiment in ways traditional markets can’t. Let’s take a calm dive into the key on-chain metrics worth watching. 🟠 1️⃣ Hash Rate and Mining Difficulty The hash rate measures total computational power securing the network. A rising hash rate signals miner confidence — they’re investing in machines and electricity because they believe in Bitcoin’s future. Mining difficulty automatically adjusts every two weeks to keep block times near ten minutes. 📉 A sharp drop in hash rate or difficulty can signal miner stress or capitulation. 📈 Steady increases often precede bull markets. 🟡 2️⃣ Active Addresses and Transaction Count These metrics reveal network activity — how many wallets are transacting and how often. Active Addresses: show how many participants are moving coins daily. Transaction Count: shows how much real economic activity is happening. When both rise together, Bitcoin’s user base and utility are expanding — always a good sign. 🟢 3️⃣ HODL Waves and Coin Dormancy Every Bitcoin has an age since it last moved. Visualizing this creates HODL Waves, showing how long coins have been held. When long-term holders refuse to sell — even during price rallies — it signals conviction and reduces liquid supply. Coin Dormancy complements this by measuring how long coins have sat idle before being spent. Low dormancy = active market. High dormancy = strong hands holding tight. 🔵 4️⃣ Exchange Balances and Flow Tracking exchange reserves helps you see how much Bitcoin is available for immediate sale. 📉 Falling exchange balances mean coins are moving to self-custody (bullish). 📈 Rising exchange inflows often precede volatility or corrections. It’s the best supply pressure gauge we have. 🟣 5️⃣ Realized Price and MVRV Ratio The Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all circulating Bitcoin — the “real” value at which holders acquired them. When market price dips below realized price, history shows we’re near capitulation or bottoming zones. The MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) compares price to fundamentals: MVRV < 1: Undervalued (good accumulation zones). MVRV > 3: Overheated (caution). 🔴 6️⃣ NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss NUPL tracks how much profit or loss the network is sitting on. It moves through clear emotional phases: 🟥 < 0 — Capitulation 🟨 0–0.25 — Hope / Recovery 🟩 0.25–0.75 — Optimism / Belief 🟦 > 0.75 — Euphoria / Potential Top Overlaying NUPL on the price chart helps visualize fear and greed in real time. ⚫ 7️⃣ SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio SOPR answers one question: “Are coins being sold at a profit or a loss?” SOPR > 1 → Sellers are taking profit (bullish in uptrends). SOPR < 1 → Holders are cutting losses (bearish). Tracking SOPR helps identify capitulation points and profit-taking peaks. ⚪ 8️⃣ Long-Term vs Short-Term Holder Supply On-chain data separates holders into: Long-Term Holders (LTH) — coins held >155 days Short-Term Holders (STH) — newer, more reactive participants When LTH supply reaches record highs, weak-hand supply runs low — setting the stage for a supply squeeze and bull cycle. 🟩 9️⃣ Funding Rates and Open Interest Though technically from derivatives, these metrics reveal trader sentiment. Positive funding: longs pay shorts → excessive optimism → possible correction. Negative funding: shorts pay longs → fear and exhaustion → potential rebound. Pair funding with open interest (total leverage in the system) to spot when markets are overstretched. 🧭 🔟 The Macro Lens: Halvings and Supply Issuance Every four years, Bitcoin’s block subsidy halves. Each halving cuts new supply in half and triggers massive shifts in supply-demand balance. Combine halving data with miner revenue and issuance rates to understand long-term cycles. Each halving historically precedes a new multi-year price discovery phase. 🧩 Putting It All Together No single metric tells the full story. The art of on-chain analysis is correlation — finding where multiple signals converge: Rising hash rate + falling exchange balances = accumulation Low NUPL + SOPR below 1 = capitulation and potential bottom LTH supply at highs + MVRV rising = early bull market phase The blockchain gives you the data. Your job is to interpret the human behavior behind it. 🧠 Final Thoughts Bitcoin’s transparency is revolutionary. Every coin, every address, every movement — recorded forever and visible to all. Unlike Wall Street, there are no secrets here. For the disciplined analyst, this is pure signal: a way to understand market cycles, sentiment, and conviction — straight from the chain itself. So next time someone asks where the price is going, you’ll have more than a guess. You’ll have data, context, and conviction. Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework. I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2025. Thanks for following my work. Always remember: freedom, health and positivity! Please also check out my Bitcoin Fortress Podcast on all your favorite streaming platforms. I do a weekly Top Bitcoin News update every week on Sunday, focused on current items of interest to the Bitcoin community. Please check it out if you haven’t already. Also now on Fountain, where you can earn Bitcoin just for listening to your favorite podcasts. Also, check out my books: Bitcoin Fortress: A Simple Guide to Bitcoin for Beginners Bitcoin Retirement and Estate Planning The Bitcoin Lifestyle Follow me on Nostr: npub122fpu8lwu2eu2zfmrymcfed9tfgeray5quj78jm6zavj78phnqdsu3v4h5 If you’re looking for more great Bitcoin signal, check out friend of the show @Pleb Underground
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